NPR's Ken Rudin Predicts Democrats Will Take Control of House of Representatives

NPR ^ | October 26, 2006 | Ken Rudin

[StJacques]

Oct. 26, 2006  With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, the Republican Party faces the real possibility of forfeiting its grip on the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. As the chart above shows, at last count, the forecast from NPR Political Editor Ken Rudin sees Democrats ahead in 211 races, Republicans ahead in 204 races, and 20 races as tossups.

At last count, NPR's numbers suggest there are 60 key races that could swing control of the House. . . .

[StJacques]

"Remember the polls of Obragore in Mexico winning by a landslide?"

Did RealClearPolitics predict that? I didn't know that if they did.

What I remember very well is that RealClearPolitics was WAY out in front of everyone else on the surprising mid-term showing of the Republicans in 2002. And they did very well in the presidential election of 2004 too.

[Major Matt Mason]

I hope we are rewarded on election day with a Republican majority in Congress that finally cuts all government funding for NPR and PBS.

Ha! The GOP majority couldn't even get rid of low flow toilets, hardly a political loser. Don't hold your breath.

[jveritas]

RealClear Politics takes the average of media polls, that is. We will keep control of both Houses of Congress.

[StJacques]

"RealClear Politics takes the average of media polls, that is. We will keep control of both Houses of Congress."

Yes; but they do more than that jveritas. They also provide their own analysis, and I'll be looking very closely to see what they have to say.

One thing I am convinced of right now is that we Republicans have momentum on our side. In 2002 the Democrats peaked way too early and the Republican surge at the end surprised just about everyone except RealClearPolitics. I am now in no doubt we will keep control of the Senate. But I am just not seeing the numbers and analysis in the House races to indicate that we might retain control there.

I do hope you are right in your prediction however. I intend to post an in-depth analysis of my own as we get very close to election day.

[Yo-Yo]

Tradesports shows a GOP House at 36%.

They also predicted a Kerry win right up until the day of the election.

[SuperSonic]

Jim McTague of Barron's has an article whereby he believes that money raised by the candidate has a strong connection to the result in the election. He predicts that the GOP will retain control of both houses of congress, losing 8 to 14 seats in the House and losing 2 in the Senate.

Survivor! The GOP Victory

[jveritas]

President Bush and Karl Rove said that we will maintain control of both Houses and I trust their judgment. The record is on their side as they crushed the democrats in three consecutive national elections. The media polls are very biased as you know, there is not a single poll that does not over sample democrats and independents leaning democrats. Two days ago Karl Rove told NPR that he based his analysis on 68 polls weekly where as the media based their analysis on few public media polls a week. Rove knows in much more accurate way how things are going and he is confident that we will keep control of both Houses.

[MMcC]

Karl Rove told me that the Republicans will maintain control of both houses. I trust Karl.

I may be completely wrong, but I just don't believe the "regular pollsters" are very good at judging turnout. I think that is especially true in the house races.

BTW, does anyone have any data on the 2 GA house seats that we have a chance to take?

[Doctor Raoul]

NPR = Air America on Welfare

[Gritty]

What happened to that jubilant "30-50 seat" pickup we were hearing about just a few weeks ago?

[Alia]

By jove, I think you are right about that. They never, to my hearing and knowledge have predicted ANY Republican win.

Obviously, NPR is allied with the Democrat "educational faith-based" propagandizing strategery.

[Alia]

"Obragore" in Mexico ?

ROFL!

[TNCMAXQ]

Michael Barone still says 16 seats and I trust him. However, with better turnout that 16 could be lowered. The GOP would keep control, if only by a very tiny margin.

Sad thing is, if the Dems do win with something like 218-220 seats, it will almost be as if the GOP handed them their margin of victory. If Foley, Sherwood, Ney and a few others had not gotten in trouble, they would be headed to reelection. Or they should have been told to step aside sooner.

[thelastvirgil]

About 45 minutes ago, on John Gibson's "Big Story", Michelle Malkin predicted a 50-50 senate, and a slim RAT majority in the house. What has she been smoking?

[DoughtyOne]

IMO, even if you think that is how things will turn out, it's still a poker game and nobody should feel like they need to lay their cards on the table face up.

I wish Republicans would learn this. It's not lying to simply state you're not sure how it will turn out. Nobdy is.

I like Michelle, but wish she wouldn't engage in this type activity.

[rod1]

What's a Ken Rudin?

[WesternPacific]

NHM's L. Medford Predicts Republicans Will Keep Control of House of Representatives

[DoughtyOne]

You're welcome to half of my pipe-dream.

[DoughtyOne]

Let's hope they're right.

[WOSG]

"
One thing I am convinced of right now is that we Republicans have momentum on our side. "

We have momentum but from a tide that was at 25 Dem pickup in the worst polls ...

We have to keep getting stronger and not fade.

As it stands today, nobody can truly predict if we keep it to single digits Dem pickup or a 25 seat Dem pickup with a majority.

IT IS OUR ACTIONS ON THE PERSONAL LEVEL THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

So contact everyone you know to vote Republican, and the GOP holds the Congress.