Posted on 10/31/2006 8:09:22 AM PST by LS
I know this because I'm hearing ads like Jennifer Granholm in MI virtually BEGGING the Dems to turn out.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116225455100808339-3aT01t6Ec9cWLJtV5Ooc597qUwE_20061129.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top
What they aren't telling is is how much of an edge, but consider:
If, as I have argued, the polls are off by a good 5% on average, and if the GOP is turning out, on average, 2-3% higher (my estimates, based on canvassing in OH), that's an EIGHT PERCENT MARGIN!!!
But wait!!! The Dems are going to be BELOW their turnout models. So add another 1-2%.
Plug "dem numbazzz" into yer polls, and see where you are.
GOP gains seats in each house.
I don't have a comment...just wanted to see that on the screen again...
As bad as the negative barrage by the Democrat Media has been this election cycle, on all fronts, their lying tactics have always had a high likelihood of backfiring by boosting our turnout.
Another factor that too many have tended to ignore is the large number of marriage and other traditionalist amendments that are on the ballot in many states...all of which will help our GOTV efforts as well.
We have an ad on our TV which is asking people not to vote. It's sponsored by AARP. It has a bunch of people begging people not to vote. Obviously, that gets your attention and you wait for the punch line. Then it says to not vote unless you know the issues and where your people stand on them. I think it's trying to discourage people from voting. That, I would think, must mean that they don't like what their polls are telling them. They instruct viewers to go to dontvote.com, a website that breaks down AARP issues by state and district and takes you to campaign websites.
LOL. "I been sayin' it and sayin' it. Ain't I been sayin' it?"
Or, they obviously think that the majority of their members, despite what we suspect, are going to vote R and they want them to stay home.
LS, don't you think too, that the fact the media has been insisting for 2 months that the dems have already won the elections that an unintended consequence may be that some dems may stay home thinking there isn't a need to vote? Now that would be funny.
If it happens you will be a legend. Tradesports and the Iowa Electronic Markets both have continued GOP control of the house trading at about 30 (IIRC neither Bush nor Kerry got out of the 60/40 range after Labor Day in 2004), although a GOP Senate hold is trading at about 70. However, at Tradesports the contract for Dem pickups in the House is trading at about 98.
So if you're right, you'll outdo not just the Larry Sabatos of the world but markets reflecting the collective judgment of large numbers of people betting their own money. I happen to like markets as a predictive device, but if you are right you can start printing your ticket to the political prognostication Hall of Fame. :)
I hope we see it in 8 days.
It's my feeling too...
The Dems run on "NOTHING" and nothing, typically, wins nothing...
Agendized polls, blatant media bias, has propped up the DEMS, but reality is quite different.
Without a doubt. I know people who HATED DeWine, and if they'd just shut up, those people wouldn't be voting. Now they are, and they'll vote Blackwell, too.
LOL...
It's possible.
We are in far better shape in several races I'm familiar with than the Democrat Media is portraying. Which all along has made me think that if they're using those tactics in those cases, they're likely using them everywhere.
If I'm wrong, there won't be enough crow in Kansas for me to eat.
Ken, I said this summer we would regret not running stronger candidates in CA, WA, NE, and W VA. We literally could have been looking at cloture in the Senate in this election.
One more time!
Don't believe this for a moment. Democrats invented the modern turnout strategy, from "knock and drag" in black neighborhoods to union phone trees to specialized commercials on hand-held computers for specific neighborhoods. Oh, they'll turn their people out all right. The only question is will Republicans do it even better, as they did in 2004?
I remember..no argument here..I wonder if we can get Nelson to cross the aisle..
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.