Why Some Top Republicans Think They May Still Have the Last Laugh

Time ^ | 10/31/06 | Mike Allen

[Welike ike]

LS, it amazes me how many Pro Tradesports punters their are at this blog. Some betting site located in the Costa Rican jungle. What a Joke.

[Welike ike]

LS, a excellent post at Jim Gerahty's blog at NRO today. If you get a chance read it, amazing stuff and right on line with your findings.

Gerahty is the only one I will read over at that Fifth column site with eggheads Lowry, Goldberg, and Moron Kudlow.

[LS]

I've been in and out over there all day. Frustrating. Rich Lowry seems to be a boob. While it's true races are individual, local affairs, there are trends, and you simply don't have the disparities in these races that Rich's little charts say.

I DON'T believe Zogby any more than the others, except to say that he apparently is closer to what I think is really happening: DeWine -1.4, McGavick -3.1. Very good news. The only bad news there is Santorum is still down 11. He has to climb within 3-4 for turnout to win it for him.

Oh, and this from NRO: "Democrats are pouring money into Virginia, though. This insider's guess is that they may be thinking they're not going to win in Tennessee, and therefore pouring it on in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia."

Good, since we will win all three of those, it's money down a rathole. If they dumped money into OH and PA and RI, they might still affect the outcome, but only in terms of final numbers, not control.

[Welike ike]

Yes Rich Lowry swung to the left after he started subbing for RINO David Brooks on the Leherer Report on PBS. His analysis is based only on polling and not intangibles.

Kudlow is a farce and former Liberal DEM who is buddies with Robert Rubin .

[riverdawg]

"Tradesports had the winner, Bush, at 48% on Election morning and 20% by 4 pm."

The 2004 election-day dynamics of the odds at tradesports have been hashed over ad infinitum on other FR threads and in several academic papers. (Go to nber.com, type in 12083, and look on page 14 for a nice graph of the price of the Bush re-election contract on election day 2004.)

As I recall, tradesports nailed every state-by-state electoral college outcome for Bush v. Kerry.

[Dr. Free Market]

I think Zogby is close to reality, add +3 to 4 for Repub and -3 to 4 for Dems on Rassmussen. SurveyUSA is worthless. Any race where a Repub deficit is within 4 on Nov. 7 is a tossup, and depends on turnout.

[Welike ike]

They did not nail every state Dawg. After the exit polls they had Florida and Ohio at 20% also. How is that nailing every state??

Dawg I bought Bush at 30% that day, I know the prices from 11/02/04 my fiend. Do not distort.