Why Some Top Republicans Think They May Still Have the Last Laugh

Time ^ | 10/31/06 | Mike Allen

[hoosiermama]

Did any one see the talking head on TV discussing the Delay seat?
Basically he said: Dems think that people can't follow simple direction to complete a ballot. Their perception is based on their own inabilities (EX: FLORIDUH). The Texan Republicans are smarter and will win in Nov.

YES!

[gridlock]

I'm not a "Top Republican", but I concur. We will have the last laugh.

Bush hatred does not play well with the people, and that is all the Democrats are campaigning on.

[LS]

New Zogby/WSJ poll has KB down 7.5, DeWine down 1.4.

Before you snub Zogby, at least in these races, he has been closer to reality throughout, and this # is consistent with internal campain poll's numbers (-8%). And this was done on 10/23-27-- AFTER Foley-gate and pedophilia-gate!

The BEST news is that Republicans are indeed "coming home" as LS says: KB 85%, DeWine 90%. Independents are still in the low 30s for both-- 30 and 33, respectively, but as I said before: "If KB gets 90% of conservatives (3% more than Bush) and 40% of "moderates" (1% less than (Bush), and 3% of liberals (11% LESS than Bush), that's 50%!

Where'd those 14-28% leads go in 2-3 weeks? Well, I'll tell ya. As I posted before, since August, polls have shown, previously pro-Strickland Republicans and non-Democrat undecideds moving away from Strickland and breaking for Blackwell.

The wild card could be the Black vote. Right now, 50% of the Black vote makes up the entire CURRENT deficit to 50%-- very doable. That necessary percentage (50%) drops significantly as the current 85/30 Rep/Ind split approaches 90/40 (~20%-- a near lock).

My back of the envelope analyses from available poll internals showed that this race was NEVER more than a 15% deficit at its worst. The last one I did last week showed it at -6.2.

[gridlock]

GOP gains seats in each house.

Yes. They certainly will. A lot of people are going to be very surprised next Wednesday.

[LS]

I don't think that's it. I think the air went out of their baloon two years ago, and they've never recovered. They've never figured out the GOP volunteer effort, either.

[LS]

See the post I put up right after yours about the new Zobgy poll on Blackwell/DeWine. If you adjust for turnout, DeWine is now winning, and Blackwell is within 2%.

[gridlock]

LS, don't you think too, that the fact the media has been insisting for 2 months that the dems have already won the elections that an unintended consequence may be that some dems may stay home thinking there isn't a need to vote? Now that would be funny.

What's funny is the fact that a lot of Democrat Core Voters^TM say they are not going to vote because they are convinced that the Republicans aren't going to count their votes, anyway. The Democrats have been making their reckless and outrageous smears since 2000, and have wound up supressing their own votes!

[syriacus]

Thanks for your post about previous Tradesports failures.

I was tempted to ask if they have always been accurate.

[hoosiermama]

At the same time the GOP volunteers efforts were taking off, many state now have new vote ID laws which really cuts into their "base". Plus, there HAS been an attempt to cut out the "voter fraud".

Followed the voter fraud since 2004. (Type in Repository in key word). IMO many were exposed and some even prosecuted. Just the exposure and letting them know we're on to them, cuts down the number of tries. Each illegal vote stopped is a vote found.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

GOP gains seats in each house.

One more time!

With feeling, people!

[gridlock]

I think the conventional models simply don't work in this election. The degree of hatred for the President on the part of the Left completely distorts their perspective. The Bush Haters make a lot of noise, but each of these people only gets to vote once.

So instead of looking at the polls, I look at other indicators of how their brand of Bush Hatred is playing with the people. I look to the failures of the Dixie Chicks, the New York Times and Katie Couric, and I am encouraged. These institutions have all married themselves to the Anti-Bush Zeitgeist, and they have all failed in the marketplace.

IMHO, this philosophy will fail in the ballot box, as well.

[LS]

I think that also applies to "Taft hatred" here in OH. Sure, people don't like him, but they don't "hate republicans." They see right through attempts to link Blackwell to Taft.

[karnage]

You won't have to eat much crow. Months ago, you staked out a bold position. You've backed it up with research and reason. You have held firm throughout the LSM shelling and flighty-righty nervous-nelling. I think we'll hold the House and Senate - I have placed bets on it - don't know if we'll make gains. But either way, you have Kept The Faith. And for that, Hats Off!

[Keith]

Again, as LS has so often pointed out, the significant aspect of an improvement as shown in this poll is momentum (as opposed to "Joementum") Keep an eye out for closing polls in this last week...both because 1)polling firms have to be accurate only in their LAST poll, and 2) Republican voters, scared by the idea of Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid, hold their noses, where necessary, and come home...

[gridlock]

Ken, I said this summer we would regret not running stronger candidates in CA, WA, NE, and W VA. We literally could have been looking at cloture in the Senate in this election.

Why the party does not take it's best shot at every single seat, I will never know. If you contest a seat, you might get lucky. If you don't try to win, you are guaranteed to lose.

[Welike ike]

You are quite welcome.. Tradesports is just a piddly little Costa Rican amateur betting site that is based on emotion, not facts like Wall Street.

[LS]

It's such a struggle. If you see what Allen is going through, just ask yourself, would you want your high school and college (or early career) years dragged out? I played in a ROCK BAND, for God's sake! Just the drug question would sink me :)

Not to mention people would want to know why I supported Eric Clapner over Jimi Hendrix :)

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

Why the party does not take it's best shot at every single seat, I will never know.

The "best shots" have to volunteer for the task.

And a lot of them do not want a failed Senate campaign on their resume.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

I played in a ROCK BAND, for God's sake!

In today's political news, LS is on the campaign stump, addressing a scandal in which he was accused of not using enough COWBELL!

[LS]

It's more the anal exam you have to go through---everything from finances to past sexual activity (Gov. Ryan, anyone?) to racial slurs you might have used (and who hasn't?).