Following the Election Returns [Hour by Hour Guide]

Opinion Journal ^ | November 7, 2006 | John Fund

[RobFromGa]

This year the networks say they are guarding their exit poll results as if they were crown jewels. The results will be delivered to a "quarantine room," access to which will be granted to only two staffers from each network...

Given that the longer election night might not suit everyone's bedtime, I've prepared an hour-by-hour guide to tonight's results...

All times are Eastern. In a bow to tradition, we've listed states that went for George W. Bush two years ago in red and those that went for John Kerry in blue. The letters after state names indicate governor and senate races, with the incumbent party in the appropriate color (independents in black).

6 p.m.

• Indiana S
• Kentucky

Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the eastern portions will end voting at 6 EST. The key races in both states will be a bevy of close House races featuring GOP incumbents.

In Indiana, three GOP House incumbents have been trailing their Democratic challengers in October polls, albeit with survey samples so small the margin of error is large. Watch Rep. Mike Sodrel in the Ninth District. If he wins, it will mean it's unlikely Republicans will face a huge Democratic wave and lose 30 seats or more. If Rep. Chris Chocola in the Second District should survive, the GOP may wind up losing 20 seats or fewer. If Rep. John Hostettler also comes home to victory in the Eighth District, there is a good chance the GOP will retain its House majority. Indiana's Senate race isn't competitive; Republican Dick Lugar will easily win a sixth term.

Kentucky has two barn burners. Republican Rep. Anne Northup has held Louisville's Third District for five terms...

[RobFromGa]

Excellen guide to the elections at link...

[RobFromGa]

Senate 2006 Midterm ping.

If anyone wants on or off the Senate 2006 ping list, send me Freepmail.

[RobFromGa]

My FINAL predictions:

I think we win in VA, MO, TN, MT, MD, NJ, OH, and RI. (+2: MD, NJ)
I think we lose in MI, PA, MN, and WA. (-1: PA)

Net +1 in the Senate. These are my final predictions, I changed OH to Win, PA to lose, MI to lose, RI to win, still 56-42-2.

We keep the House with a loss of 7 to 9 seats net. I think we pickup 3-4 Dem seats and lose about 10-14 GOP seats

New Jersey and Ohio I am not confident about, but I think we will win close ones.

[MEG33]

Bump

[The G Man]

Bump for later reference.

[goldstategop]

I agree. The GOP should hold on with a 222-223 seat majority in the House. Since 1934, the average rule for the President's party has been to lose 30-40 seats in mid-term elections. That rule was broken in 1998 and again in 2002. There's no reason to believe we'll ever it see return in America politics.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

[Minn. 4 Bush]

I'm going with your positive attitude!

Of the 3 or 4 gains in the house, are 2 of them in GA?

[TomGuy]

Lieberman was just on F&F. He says he will continue to caucus with the Dems, even though many of them stabbed him in the back. He says he will be Independent [snicker].


Dems may try this technique in future elections -- run a Dem and run an Independent (Dem in disguise) -- and hope either get elected.

Hey, it seems to have worked in Connecticut.

[The Wizard]

I'd be very happy with this outcome...

[NaughtiusMaximus]

Please add NaughtiusMaximus (no space) to the Senate 2006 Midterm pinglist.

[NittanyLion]

Bump for later.

[RobFromGa]

Yes, I think we pickup GA-08 and GA-12.

[watsonfellow]

The really depressing thought is how awful Dole was as NRCC chair.

We could have had a real shot at

Nebraska
North Dakota
Florida
West Virginia

if she would have recruited good people

[RasterMaster]

Hannity and other pseudo conservatives should be pushing for the Republican, not a LIEberal who wants Rummy to step down. Or they could STAY OUT OF IT if they couldn't support the GOP.

[RobFromGa]

Dems may try this technique in future elections -- run a Dem and run an Independent (Dem in disguise) -- and hope either get elected.

This would normally be a recipe for splitting the liberal vote, and allow a Republican to get elected. The only way it works is if you can get GOP voters to support the Independent to stop the ultra-lib from getting elected.

[Screamname]

I`m praying that where I live (New York), the people here will lose their insanity long enough to elect the beast Hellary out and Spencer in (or ANYONE for that matter, I`ll take ANYBODY over Hellary!), but I think hell will freeze over before that happens. It`s amazing how this beast who has done absolutely nothing can win so easily.

[Preachin']

"Yes, I think we pickup GA-08 and GA-12."

I agree.

[RobFromGa]

No time to cry over that now, we just need to be sure that in 2008 we field the right candidates in the Red and Purple States.

In the 2008 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Rockefeller(WV), Johnson(SD), Baucus(MT), Pryor(AR),Landrieu(LA),
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Harkin(IA), Levin(MI)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: Graham*(SC), Hagel*(NE),
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Coleman(MN), Smith(OR)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Sununu(NH),Domenici(NM),Allard(CO)

HOLD OR ABANDON?:
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Collins(ME)

[nina0113]

Don't write off Minnesota just yet - remember it was the MN National Guard that did the "Halp Us Jon Carry" banner.

Now I really am leaving to go vote.

[Man50D]

Hey, it seems to have worked in Connecticut.

I wouldn't use Connecticut as an example given there are no Republicans in the state. They are RINO's.