Skip to comments.Following the Election Returns [Hour by Hour Guide]
Posted on 11/07/2006 4:41:39 AM PST by RobFromGa
This year the networks say they are guarding their exit poll results as if they were crown jewels. The results will be delivered to a "quarantine room," access to which will be granted to only two staffers from each network...
Given that the longer election night might not suit everyone's bedtime, I've prepared an hour-by-hour guide to tonight's results...
All times are Eastern. In a bow to tradition, we've listed states that went for George W. Bush two years ago in red and those that went for John Kerry in blue. The letters after state names indicate governor and senate races, with the incumbent party in the appropriate color (independents in black).
Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the eastern portions will end voting at 6 EST. The key races in both states will be a bevy of close House races featuring GOP incumbents.
In Indiana, three GOP House incumbents have been trailing their Democratic challengers in October polls, albeit with survey samples so small the margin of error is large. Watch Rep. Mike Sodrel in the Ninth District. If he wins, it will mean it's unlikely Republicans will face a huge Democratic wave and lose 30 seats or more. If Rep. Chris Chocola in the Second District should survive, the GOP may wind up losing 20 seats or fewer. If Rep. John Hostettler also comes home to victory in the Eighth District, there is a good chance the GOP will retain its House majority. Indiana's Senate race isn't competitive; Republican Dick Lugar will easily win a sixth term.
Kentucky has two barn burners. Republican Rep. Anne Northup has held Louisville's Third District for five terms...
(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...
Always do since they are always inaccurate.
"wasting so much negative energy "
bump to that.
Reminds me of a line that Tony Snow had on Rush yesterday - don't recall the exact wording but in effect it was that Dems were polar opposites basically of GOP. Dems are saddened by victories and instead celebrate losses. I need to find it.
This is not what the RATS wanted.
And how awful Frist was as Senate Majority Leader, with RINOs like McCain, Chafee, Snow and Specter running wild...
Just curious. What county would that be? We just bought a summer place in New Fairfied, CT in Fairfield County, just below Litchfield County.
Few have criticized a Dole any less than I, but I really don't think E. Dole is responsible for what happens today. And she has been more conservative in her voting record than I ever imagined.
This definitely will have an effect on the oldsters voting. However, most of them get up at the crack of dawn and probably a lot of them have voted already. The rest of the late afternoon and early evening will undoubtedly be the working forces (teachers, tradespeople, shop clerks, etc.). My county goes about 51% Dim and 48% Republican in the presidential elections.
Wish I had a crystal ball.
Voter turnout was light and it's been raining like heck here all day. Might see an upset for Robinson? Maybe?
That's "Brad Miller". Interesting Freudian slip.
I was up in Greensboro-High Point the last two days, and I saw the Robinson ads, and his opponent's ads against Robinson OVER AND OVER again... Go Vernon!
I just heard the Dan Rather will be on Comedy Centrals election coverage tonight with Jon Stewart.
I'm not making this up. This is the best gig Rather could get.
It`s hopeless against Hellary which is incredible being that the beeyatch hasn`t done one damn thing for New York since getting that Senate seat through the pardons of her sexual deviant husband. It just blows the mind. I live in Astoria Queens and if you remember we had that huge blackout here over the summer, I was without electric for 8 full days. When Hellary first came into office, we had a similar blackout that lasted for about a day. She immediately blamed Bush and she promised it would never happen again so long as she were Senator. Well not only did it happen again, it was 8 times worse. So much for Hellarys promise, yet she will be re-elected by a landslide. These are the idiot voters we live around. There`s a saying "If you can make it in New york city you can make it anywhere"...What a load of garbage that saying is. There aren`t more gullible people than there are in New York city. If you can make it here, it means you made it amongst morons. The real world though is another matter. This is why Hellary chose to carpetbag in New York.
He explained it by saying that Miller has been the incumbent for four years, and voters needed to be given a reason to fire him. What was a turn off for me, became an eminiently logical position, as far as I was concerned. Robinson got my vote.
I like your thinking and prediction.
Went to Rush just now and found it. Here is the sentence that captures a nice distinction between GOP and DEMS:
Tony Snow: "[the Democrats] want to cast every success as an occasion for gloom."
It is so true. Just stroll through DU and you can see it in the titles of their threads.
It is from this exchange yesterday on Rush's show:
TONY SNOW: "When's the last time Howard Dean made you feel better about yourself or your country"?
RUSH: "Well, obviously never, nor does Nancy Pelosi. None of them do. They anger me at why they are so opposed to progress in this country on every angle".
TONY SNOW: "Yeah. No, I think that's right, and they also want to cast every success as an occasion for gloom. I'm just not buying it".
"If you look at what our forces have done in Iraq and Afghanistan, it's miraculous. We ought to be celebrating them. If you look at what American workers have done, it's miraculous, we ought to be celebrating them, and you've got a president who's looking at the next two years saying, "I want to roll up my sleeves and do more."
"There's no more positive politician in America today than George W. Bush".
New York City is filled with liberals up to its eyeballs. They love socialists like Hillary.
Will he try to prove once again that he is not
"Queen of the Space Unicorns"?
I'm feeling pretty darned good about George Allen's chances in VA. And Rudy Giuliani was just on Hannity's radio show, saying MD numbers were looking strong for Ehrlich winning re-election and perhaps Steele "steeling" a Senate seat. :-)
I reject all negatives today. The WH is upbeat and the DOW is closing at a record high!
Onward to VICTORY!
"I'm feeling pretty darned good about "
See, there's that dad gum optimism that Tony Snow was talking about! I'm icing down beer in preparation.
LOL! Queen of the Space Unicorns, that is good.
I hope that someday your children and grandchildren will tell of the time that a certain president came to town at the end of a long journey and asked their parents and grandparents to join him in setting America on the course to the new millenniumand that a century of peace, prosperity, opportunity, and hope followed.
So, if I could ask you just one last time: Tomorrow, when mountains greet the dawn, would you go out there and win one for the Gipper? -- Ronald Reagan, November 7, 1988
Ditto to all you said about Hillary.
Remember when she decided to run 6 years ago and everyone (in the media) said that she wouldn't get a free ride with the press? That she would be asked tough questions......yeah, right. She went on a six month listening tour without any questions from the press and they had hissy fit when Lazio dare to approach her at the podium.
I still can't believe she's my Senator. And she's getting stronger. Even the cops and firemen, I think, I giving her support.
I was at MSG, right after 9/11. It was a tribute to all the rescue worker's lost that day. My nephew was one of them. Hillary was booed right off the stage, but now I see her in pictures with rescue workers supporting her.
And that 8 day black out in Queens???? What the heck was going on with Bloomy, backing the Con Ed guy. Shameful
That is his formal title.
>>I am from Wichita and I have been praying NON-STOP all day!!!
I've been praying as well. We can't have an AG who is beholden to George Tiller.
Dan Rather (like John Kerry) is the gift that keeps on giving...and giving...and....
I can only speak for my family, however, I turned in all the info the state of Florida required for my husband and I to vote this year. Months ago mind you. And I have yet to see an absentee ballot.
We're military, by the way.
A Michigan man -- Rick Visel -- says he didn't know which candidate to vote for in the governor's race. When he woke up this morning, he found that someone had littered his lawn with five campaign signs for Governor Jennifer Granholm. So, he voted for her opponent.
6:00PM: Indiana and Kentucky
Indiana and Kentucky are the Republicans canary in the coalmine. In 1994, the GOP knew even before cocktail hour that they were in for a good night when a number of seats switched hands in both states (it happened so early in the evening that many election night observers had not even tuned in yet). Democrats are hopeful the same thing happens this year in their favor. The Republican Governor of Indiana is as smart as Einstein and as popular as typhoid, so there is a local anti-Republican current that is dragging down the rest of the ticket. Kentucky Republicans are suffering the same fate. There are five possible switches in this time zone one more than in 1994. If three or more go early, you know the Democrats are taking control of the House.
John Hostettler (R-INC) v. Brad Ellsworth (Indiana 08): Hostettler, a class of 1994 Republican, is in deep, deep, deep trouble in a district that gave Bush more than 60% of the vote in 2004. The question here is not whether he loses but by how much and he wont be able to blame his campaign manager without upsetting the family Thanksgiving dinner. His sister runs the homespun campaign.
Mike Sodrel (R-INC) v. Baron Hill (D) (Indiana 09): Sodrel upset Democrat incumbent Baron Hill in 2004 by less than 1%, and Hill is back for a rematch. Polls had consistently showed Sodrel losing by as much as 11%, but tracking in the past week narrowed the gap. If he wins, the GOP really did close the gap in the last 96 hours. If he loses, the Dems are on the way to a majority. Clearly an important bellwether district.
Chocola (R-INC) v. Donnelly (D) (Indiana 02): Chris Chocola is what I call a Majority Maker. Its a Democrat seat but Chocola is a very strong campaigner. He would probably keep the seat in any other year but 2006. Should he survive, its a clear indication that good Republican candidates can withstand a bad Republican year. If he loses early and badly, its going to be a lonely night for other House Republicans.
Northrup (R-INC) v. Yarmuth (D) (KY 03): Anne Northrup has held one of the GOPs most marginal seats (both Gore and Kerry carried the district) for a decade. Considered one of the hardest working incumbents, she has survived strong Democrat efforts in every election cycle since 1996. You can tell its a bad year for Republicans when there are a dozen more vulnerable incumbents. If Northrup loses this time, expect Republicans to drop 25+ House seats.
Davis (R-INC) v. Lucas (D) (KY 04): In 2004, the then-70-year-old Democrat Lucas retired from Congress after serving in this district for three terms and was succeeded by Davis, a staunch conservative. This is a very Republican district, but Lucas has been tarred by his associations with Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham. DCCC chairman, Rahm Emanuel talked Lucas into un-retiring and giving it another go.. This ones a real tossup.
Lewis (R-INC) v. Weaver (D) (KY-02): This one has snuck up on people but the DCCC is touting the candidacy of Col. Mike Weaver, a conservative opposed to abortion, gun control and gay marriage. He is running against Ron Lewis, the man who first won in 1993 in a district that hadnt elected a Republican since Reconstruction. Should Weaver pull the upset it will be a disastrous omen for the GOP.
From: CNN Breaking News Subject: CNN Breaking News To: TEXTBREAKINGNEWS@CNNIMAIL12.CNN.COM -- Britney Spears files for divorce from her husband Kevin Federline, citing irreconcilable differences.
7:00PM: Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
KATHERINE HARRIS WILL BE THE NEXT SENATOR FROM FLORIDA!!! OK, I jest. She may not even get 40% of the vote, and her poor performance will make it more difficult for her Republican House colleagues to maintain their seats. God may have told her to run for the Senate, but he clearly didnt give her the tools to win.
All eyes will be on George Allen in the Virginia Senate race. If the GOP holds his seat, odds of Democrats taking the Senate are reduced significantly. If Allen loses, assume the Democrats will capture BOTH houses of Congress. Although the polls close at 7:00 pm, assume the results of this race wont be called until midnight or later. I believe Allen will win but dont bet the farm on it.
Shaw (R-INC) v. Klien (D) (FL 22): Shaw has had several political scares in recent years. Hes taking this race seriously, and his district is a bit more Republican than in the past. But Bush is unpopular in the district and Harris is polling in the mid-30s. Shaw has had to defend a Medicare prescription drug benefit that has mixed popularity and Social Security reform to a district jam-packed with seniors. This district defines the word tossup.
Buchanan (R) v. Jennings (D) (FL 13): This was a safe Republican seat in Sarasota that Katherine Harris abandoned in her futile quest for a promotion. Now it is one of the most hotly contested open seats. If Republicans lose this seat and they could it is a clear indication that open seats will be breaking Democrat. Watch this one closely.
Bass (R-INC) v. Hodes (D) (NH 02): Bass, a leading GOP moderate, was swept into Congress on the 1994 Republican tidal wave. Only a Democrat tidal wave could sweep him out. Hes included in this guide because a loss early in the evening would suggest bad news in nearby Connecticut and a loss of 30 GOP seats. Its not likely, but its worthy of mention.
Drake (R-INC) v. Kellum (D) (VA 02): MoveOn.org targeted this district in early June and it has remained on the political map ever since. The two female candidates are at opposite ends of the Iraq War, and with thousands of military families in the district, those votes could decide the election. If Republicans drop this seat, its going to be tough sledding in other military-oriented congressional districts.
Complete list of closing times:
2300 UTC (6:00 ET, 5:00 CT, 4:00 MT, 3:00 PT)
0000 UTC (7:00 ET, 6:00 CT, 5:00 MT, 4:00 PT)
0030 UTC (7:30 ET, 6:30 CT, 5:30 MT, 4:30 PT)
0100 UTC (8:00 ET, 7:00 CT, 6:00 MT, 5:00 PT)
0130 UTC (8:30 ET, 7:30 CT, 6:30 MT, 5:30 PT)
0200 UTC (9:00 ET, 8:00 CT, 7:00 MT, 6:00 PT)
0300 UTC (10:00 ET, 9:00 CT, 8:00 MT, 7:00 PT)
0400 UTC (11:00 ET, 10:00 CT, 9:00 MT, 8:00 PT, 6:00 HAT)
0500 UTC (12:00 ET, 11:00 CT, 10:00 MT, 9:00 PT, 8:00 AT, 7:00 HAT)
75 MINUTES to the closing in Indiana and Kentucky. Those really only have an impact in the House, as KY has no Senate race and IN has only a token Senate race (no Democrat running), and neither state has a Governor race.
Don't count PA out. Full court press is on!
|Wilson, Republicans cry foul as precincts run out of ballots (New Mexico Vote Fraud) ^
|Posted by Stultis
On News/Activism ^ 11/07/2006 3:57:33 PM CST · 15 replies · 538+ views
Albuquerque Tribune ^ | 7 November 2006 | Kate Nash, Erik Siemers
U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson and an attorney for the state Republican Party this morning said at least two heavily Republican precincts in the Northeast Heights received only a fraction of the paper ballots needed, a move they called a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise GOP voters.A spokesman for the Secretary of State's Office said it appeared to be a numerical error in which a zero was dropped. Two precincts that should have received 1,500 and 1,700 ballots, respectively, instead got 150 and 170."The (Bernalillo) county clerk should have checked it when they accepted the order," said Ray Baray of the Secretary...
|Wilson calls for federal election monitors after ballots run out ^
|Posted by jamesrichards
On News/Activism ^ 11/07/2006 3:04:27 PM CST · 30 replies · 1,021+ views
KOBTV ^ | November 7, 2006
Wilson calls for federal election monitors after ballots run out Incumbent Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson is calling for federal monitors from a US House committee to keep tabs on voting in New Mexico?s 1st Congressional District. Wilson made that announcement after a heavily Republican Northeast Heights precinct with roughly 2,500 registered voters ran out of ballots within two hours of the polls opening. Precinct 603 was supposed to receive 1,500 ballots but only had 150 on hand when voting began at 7:00 am. When ballots ran out at about 9:00 am, voters were asked to leave their names and numbers...
|GOP calls ballot shortage malicious
KRQE, NM -
ALBUQUERQUE -- The New Mexico Republican Party believes the lack of ballots at some precincts was no accident, and party lawyers are threatening legal action. ...
|Ballot shortage plagues precincts
KRQE, NM -
ALBUQUERQUE -- Voters began hitting the polls promptly at 7 am, and within just a couple of hours some precincts started reporting problems. ...
Be nice to your poll workers, because:
There were 10 reasons listed, most of which I don't remember. One was: "We're old and we gave up our nap for this". Another one was: "This might be you someday". Another was: "If you're really good, we'll give you a sticker".
Unless MI has a well-funded, and well-known R, Levin will stay in the Senate. He and his brother are institutions and tonight Sander's son Andy is looking to win a State Senate seat -even though until recently he worked in DC and didn't actually own a house here. But he's a Levin and people believe that he can pull it out.
The guy who ran against Levin last time was great, but he didn't have a cash advantage or was well-known outside Party circles. If they put up the same type of candidate, they are going to lose again. Getting the seat from Stabenow will be our best chance for a while, unless they get a GREAT CANDIDATE who has already won state-wide for the GOP.
Schlesinger seems like a great candidate and it was just painful to watch because he seemed to be the smartest guy up on stage, yet you knew he didn't really have a chance against Lamont and Libermann. I hope that he runs again for something.
Yes!!!! It's been raining all day. Since about 7am....
Usually I'm not that happy when the weather's like this, but today it has me in a great mood!
Prediction in the House and Senate now:
HOUSE - GOP 229, DEM 206
SENATE - GOP 56, DEM 42, IND 2
I agree except for Minnesota. That banner from Irak hit home with a lot of people from Minnesota.
Thanks for the great tidbit! I'll have to share it with my friends at the victory party I'm going to later!