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Election Results: Indiana and Kentucky; 6 pm EST [LIVE THREAD]
wcpo tv ^ | November 7, 2006 | robfromga

Posted on 11/07/2006 2:05:33 PM PST by RobFromGa

IN, OH and KY Election Results Here!


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Indiana; US: Kentucky
KEYWORDS: bushsfault; cowardamerica; cutandrun; election; elections; gopdoomed
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Here’s the early-in-the-night portion of Frank Luntz’s voter guide:

6:00PM: Indiana and Kentucky

Indiana and Kentucky are the Republicans’ canary in the coalmine.  In 1994, the GOP knew even before cocktail hour that they were in for a good night when a number of seats switched hands in both states (it happened so early in the evening that many election night observers had not even tuned in yet).  Democrats are hopeful the same thing happens this year in their favor.  The Republican Governor of Indiana is as smart as Einstein and as popular as typhoid, so there is a local anti-Republican current that is dragging down the rest of the ticket.  Kentucky Republicans are suffering the same fate.  There are five possible switches in this time zone – one more than in 1994.  If three or more go early, you know the Democrats are taking control of the House. 

John Hostettler (R-INC) v. Brad Ellsworth (Indiana 08):  Hostettler, a class of 1994 Republican, is in deep, deep, deep trouble in a district that gave Bush more than 60% of the vote in 2004.  The question here is not whether he loses but by how much and he won’t be able to blame his campaign manager without upsetting the family Thanksgiving dinner.  His sister runs the homespun campaign. 

Mike Sodrel (R-INC) v. Baron Hill (D) (Indiana 09):  Sodrel upset Democrat incumbent Baron Hill in 2004 by less than 1%, and Hill is back for a rematch.  Polls had consistently showed Sodrel losing by as much as 11%, but tracking in the past week narrowed the gap.  If he wins, the GOP really did close the gap in the last 96 hours.  If he loses, the Dems are on the way to a majority.  Clearly an important bellwether district. 

Chocola (R-INC) v. Donnelly (D) (Indiana 02):  Chris Chocola is what I call a Majority Maker.  It’s a Democrat seat but Chocola is a very strong campaigner.  He would probably keep the seat in any other year but 2006.  Should he survive, it’s a clear indication that good Republican candidates can withstand a bad Republican year.  If he loses early and badly, it’s going to be a lonely night for other House Republicans. 

Northrup (R-INC) v. Yarmuth (D) (KY 03):  Anne Northrup has held one of the GOP’s most marginal seats (both Gore and Kerry carried the district) for a decade.  Considered one of the hardest working incumbents, she has survived strong Democrat efforts in every election cycle since 1996.  You can tell it’s a bad year for Republicans when there are a dozen more vulnerable incumbents.  If Northrup loses this time, expect Republicans to drop 25+ House seats.

Davis (R-INC) v. Lucas (D) (KY 04):  In 2004, the then-70-year-old Democrat Lucas retired from Congress after serving in this district for three terms and was succeeded by Davis, a staunch conservative.  This is a very Republican district, but Lucas has been tarred by his associations with Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham. DCCC chairman, Rahm Emanuel talked Lucas into un-retiring and giving it another go..  This one’s a real tossup. 

Lewis (R-INC) v. Weaver (D) (KY-02): This one has snuck up on people but the DCCC is touting the candidacy of Col. Mike Weaver, a conservative opposed to abortion, gun control and gay marriage.  He is running against Ron Lewis, the man who first won in 1993 in a district that hadn’t elected a Republican since Reconstruction.   Should Weaver pull the upset it will be a disastrous omen for the GOP.


1 posted on 11/07/2006 2:05:34 PM PST by RobFromGa
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To: uscabjd; Kahuna; GOPsterinMA; george76; Russ; Don'tMessWithTexas; UNGN; ClaireSolt; ...
6 p.m.

Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the eastern portions will end voting at 6 EST. The key races in both states will be a bevy of close House races featuring GOP incumbents.

In Indiana, three GOP House incumbents have been trailing their Democratic challengers in October polls, albeit with survey samples so small the margin of error is large. Watch Rep. Mike Sodrel in the Ninth District. If he wins, it will mean it's unlikely Republicans will face a huge Democratic wave and lose 30 seats or more. If Rep. Chris Chocola in the Second District should survive, the GOP may wind up losing 20 seats or fewer. If Rep. John Hostettler also comes home to victory in the Eighth District, there is a good chance the GOP will retain its House majority. Indiana's Senate race isn't competitive; Republican Dick Lugar will easily win a sixth term.

Kentucky has two barn burners. Republican Rep. Anne Northup has held Louisville's Third District for five terms, but it hasn't voted Republican for president in nearly 20 years. If a she loses this time, it will an all-smiles night for Democrats. Similarly, Democrats hope that former Rep. Ken Lucas will topple freshman Republican Geoff Davis (Fourth District) in the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati. But should Mr. Lucas win, look for him to give Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi heartburn. He has campaigned as a down-the-line conservative.

--Opinion Journal

2 posted on 11/07/2006 2:07:15 PM PST by RobFromGa (The GOP will retain the Senate and House in 2006- Let's Do Something With It!)
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To: RobFromGa; Admin Moderator

I think we should just make this the election night live thread...why not.


3 posted on 11/07/2006 2:07:39 PM PST by GiveEmDubya
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To: GiveEmDubya

I'm in. Too many threads going.


4 posted on 11/07/2006 2:08:32 PM PST by LikeLight (RYMB)
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To: GiveEmDubya

I agree, this one is IT.


5 posted on 11/07/2006 2:09:57 PM PST by SF Republican
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To: GiveEmDubya

Is Ohio State playing Michigan yet?


6 posted on 11/07/2006 2:10:06 PM PST by zarf
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To: LikeLight

I don't think I can wait another hour....argh!


7 posted on 11/07/2006 2:10:23 PM PST by I'm ALL Right!
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To: SF Republican; Admin Moderator

Perhaps change the name, to just "Election Night Results" or something like that.


8 posted on 11/07/2006 2:10:31 PM PST by furquhart (Time for a New Crusade - Deus lo Volt!)
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To: GiveEmDubya

It's late enough in the day. Go for it.


9 posted on 11/07/2006 2:10:41 PM PST by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: furquhart

How do we get the mods to change the title? Report Abuse?


10 posted on 11/07/2006 2:11:22 PM PST by The Blitherer (We all know the truth now, and it is incontrovertible: Karl Rove is one magnificent bastard! - D. B.)
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To: RobFromGa

KY 4th and 3rd results will be slow in coming. Been watching KY political returns for a long time and northern KY counties tend to report slowly.


11 posted on 11/07/2006 2:12:18 PM PST by brothers4thID (Being lectured by Ted Kennedy on ethics is not unlike being lectured on dating protocol by Ted Bundy)
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To: The Blitherer

Nah, you just ping the Admin Mod, which we've already done...hopefully the title will be changed shortly.


12 posted on 11/07/2006 2:12:51 PM PST by GiveEmDubya
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To: RobFromGa

Report from Ky.

At a polling place, a union hall..poll worker was arrested for choking a voter....

No specifics about the cause of the flare up but we know Union Thugs don't need much of a reason.


13 posted on 11/07/2006 2:13:02 PM PST by TASMANIANRED (The Internet is the samizdat of liberty..)
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To: I'm ALL Right!
This is going to be a nailbiter in some parts of the country, that's for sure.

Looks like I'll be up late tonight.
14 posted on 11/07/2006 2:13:07 PM PST by reagan_fanatic (The fool hath said in his heart, there is no God." (Psalm 53:1))
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To: RobFromGa
The time on the Rolex says 5:15 EST. Let's wait a bit, since OH doesn't close until 7:30 pm EST.
15 posted on 11/07/2006 2:13:21 PM PST by airforceF4
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To: The Blitherer

Just put Moderater in the to line...and request.


16 posted on 11/07/2006 2:13:54 PM PST by TASMANIANRED (The Internet is the samizdat of liberty..)
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To: The Blitherer

Bump for CHANGE (of the title, that is...)

Live in three... two... one...


17 posted on 11/07/2006 2:13:54 PM PST by dandelion
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To: RobFromGa
I disagree with the assessment that these are the canaries int he coal mine.

The electoral map has changed as have the efforts since 1994.
18 posted on 11/07/2006 2:13:54 PM PST by padre35 ("money is the crack cocaine of politics" J. McCain before he left for a fundraiser)
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To: GiveEmDubya

Any word on the turn out in Murtha district. I'm waiting


19 posted on 11/07/2006 2:15:05 PM PST by NoDRodee
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To: airforceF4

The polls close in KY and Indiana in 45 minutes, and this website includes Ohio as part of its TRI-STATE area, so Ohio came along as a bonus. Kentucky and Indiana should give us a good early indication of how the House is looking...


20 posted on 11/07/2006 2:15:24 PM PST by RobFromGa (The GOP will retain the Senate and House in 2006- Let's Do Something With It!)
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To: GiveEmDubya; RobFromGa
"I think we should just make this the election night live thread...why not."

Kentucky has early results which are almost always accurate for the rest of the races. I'll be on this thread for most of the night.
21 posted on 11/07/2006 2:15:26 PM PST by DocRock
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To: RobFromGa

here


22 posted on 11/07/2006 2:15:27 PM PST by firewalk
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To: RobFromGa

And there it is.

Anyway, I can't stand CNN, but they've usually got the best graphical presentation of results. Let's start with this page: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/house/


23 posted on 11/07/2006 2:15:47 PM PST by GiveEmDubya
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To: RobFromGa

5:00pm WIBC Update
Repubs still in court about Vote-buying injunction
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1734244/posts


24 posted on 11/07/2006 2:15:57 PM PST by tcrlaf (VOTE DEM! You'll Look GREAT In A Burqa!)
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To: RobFromGa

Is this where the exit polling data will be posted?


25 posted on 11/07/2006 2:16:07 PM PST by VRWCmember
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To: RobFromGa

If this is the LIVE election thread...are you or mods going to allow exit polls results posted here?


26 posted on 11/07/2006 2:16:26 PM PST by Txsleuth (EVERYONE VOTE---AND VOTE REPUBLICAN,...even if you have to hold your nose!)
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To: RobFromGa

All right Rob, let's rock...


27 posted on 11/07/2006 2:16:40 PM PST by LikeLight (RYMB)
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To: RobFromGa

Bookmark


28 posted on 11/07/2006 2:16:40 PM PST by Mase
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To: GiveEmDubya

Agreed.

Man, this has gotten easier since 2006, what with IE7 (or Firefox) and tabbed browsing.


29 posted on 11/07/2006 2:17:01 PM PST by furquhart (Time for a New Crusade - Deus lo Volt!)
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To: Txsleuth

Freepmail me any exit polls you have please.


30 posted on 11/07/2006 2:17:24 PM PST by RobFromGa (The GOP will retain the Senate and House in 2006- Let's Do Something With It!)
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To: Mase

mark


31 posted on 11/07/2006 2:17:43 PM PST by varina davis
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To: RobFromGa

I'll be bouncing between this, the National Live thread, and A couple of Yahoo boards...


32 posted on 11/07/2006 2:17:45 PM PST by tcrlaf (VOTE DEM! You'll Look GREAT In A Burqa!)
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To: RobFromGa

One vote for Chocola and one for Senator Lugar here.

Lugar didn't even have a 'Rat opponent, strange since they think they're hot stuff this year.


33 posted on 11/07/2006 2:18:13 PM PST by Kenny500c
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To: RobFromGa

bookmark


34 posted on 11/07/2006 2:18:19 PM PST by Ros42
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To: RobFromGa

Bookmark


35 posted on 11/07/2006 2:18:29 PM PST by jazusamo (DIANA IREY for Congress, PA 12th District: Retire murtha.)
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To: VRWCmember

M Garrett on Gibson show says Dems are up republicans depressed, Beltway stuff.

5:15pm, keep voting!


36 posted on 11/07/2006 2:18:31 PM PST by Leto
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To: RobFromGa; Admin Moderator

Is this THE THREAD?

I'm going to be hanging around here until 3:00 am or so. Want to know I'm in the right neighborhood.


37 posted on 11/07/2006 2:18:36 PM PST by rightinthemiddle (Without the Media, the Left and Islamofacists are Nothing.)
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To: rightinthemiddle

Pull up a chair, this is the THREAD. Any guesses on how many posts by dawn tomorrow?


38 posted on 11/07/2006 2:19:56 PM PST by RobFromGa (The GOP will retain the Senate and House in 2006- Let's Do Something With It!)
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To: DocRock
I disagree, it took pollsters FOREVER to declare Jim Bunning the victor in 04.

Settle down folks, we are winning, the "Blue Wave" theory is a not going to happen.
39 posted on 11/07/2006 2:20:10 PM PST by padre35 ("money is the crack cocaine of politics" J. McCain before he left for a fundraiser)
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To: RobFromGa

rumors coming in NY is no "lost cause" - very heavy turnout of angry Rep/Cons" sending a message...


40 posted on 11/07/2006 2:20:28 PM PST by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: RobFromGa

9,500


41 posted on 11/07/2006 2:20:35 PM PST by rightinthemiddle (Without the Media, the Left and Islamofacists are Nothing.)
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To: rightinthemiddle

Drudge Dome . . .


42 posted on 11/07/2006 2:20:49 PM PST by LikeLight (RYMB)
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To: RobFromGa
Heck, I'll put this here now...I pulled this info (which I assume is correct) from thegreenpapers.com:

Chronological Poll Closings
All times eastern

6:00 PM
Indiana (EST), Kentucky (EST)

7:00 PM
Florida (EST), Georgia, New Hampshire (vast majority), South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Indiana (CST), Kentucky (CST)

7:30 PM
North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

8:00 PM
Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (EST), New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida (CST), Illinois, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota (CST), Texas (CST)

8:30 PM
North Carolina (any polls not yet closed), Arkansas

9:00 PM
New York, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Michigan (CST), Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, South Dakota (MST), Texas (MST), Wyoming

10:00 PM
Iowa, North Dakota (CST), Idaho (MST), Montana, Oregon (MST), Utah, Nevada

11:00 PM
North Dakota (MST), California, Idaho (PST), Oregon (PST), Washington, Hawaii

12:00 AM
Alaska (most)

43 posted on 11/07/2006 2:21:09 PM PST by GiveEmDubya
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To: RobFromGa
Pull up a chair, this is the THREAD. Any guesses on how many posts by dawn tomorrow?

I'll say 20,000, but I'm a newcomer to FR so what do I know? ;-)

44 posted on 11/07/2006 2:21:09 PM PST by The Blitherer (We all know the truth now, and it is incontrovertible: Karl Rove is one magnificent bastard! - D. B.)
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To: RobFromGa
Marking this for my morning (Tuesday night in the U.S.)

Nervous but optimistic here...

45 posted on 11/07/2006 2:21:32 PM PST by Allegra (Help! I'm "Stuck in Iraq!" I KNEW I Should Have Studied Harder....)
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To: RobFromGa
I can't wait for the results. I'll freeze myself to make the time go by faster.
46 posted on 11/07/2006 2:21:40 PM PST by mainepatsfan
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To: RobFromGa

Bookmark


47 posted on 11/07/2006 2:21:43 PM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: RobFromGa

I'm scared. No, wait, I'm confident. What was that? Oh, now I'm scared again!--wait, wait, new data, I'm processing it, and now I'm confident again! ...


48 posted on 11/07/2006 2:21:49 PM PST by Asclepius (protectionists would outsource our dignity and prosperity in return for illusory job security)
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To: RobFromGa
C'MON KATHERINE HARRIS! GET THAT HORSE READY!!
49 posted on 11/07/2006 2:22:01 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Why can't Republicans stand up to Democrats like they do to terrorists?)
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To: Leto
Shame, shame on Major Garrett. That's why this is the first election day since the inception of Fox News that I have had them on.

Advertisers ought to beware of FNC diving ratings.

50 posted on 11/07/2006 2:22:29 PM PST by A Citizen Reporter (Sign at World Series in St. Louis, October 27, 2006 "The Experts are Idiots")
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