I believe that Ted Haggard's push to change the direction of the Evangelical Movement did have some effect. He turned some to a new set of beliefs that are more compatible with the Democrats. His failures as a leader might have effected some votes, but I sort of doubt it. Christians of many ilks recognize that the sin of one man is the sin of one man. If steps are taken, then the one bad apple will not spoil the basket.
I don't know how much of the Evangelical Movement he effected. But with margins as narrow as they were, even a small effect across the country could have been the difference.
In 1992, George Bush 41 turned off the Republicans by trying to get along with the Democrats. He lost to Clinton. In 1996, there were stories that got circulated about Dole that he was pro-abortion. I heard these stories here in Tennessee and know people that did not vote because they figured both men were bad. This included Catholics and Evangelicals.
What is the moral of my bit of thinking? The Republicans need to choose candidates that have a strong moral backbone and act like Republicans. Conservatives and Evangelicals are both looking for someone they feel they can trust.
Reagan went out of his way to support the unborn. I need not mention his success. At the time I gasped that anyone would be so bold because I found everyone ducking the issue, including and especially Lutherans.