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Will the United States Survive Until 2022?
New English Review ^ | January 2007 | John Derbyshire

Posted on 01/03/2007 1:15:05 AM PST by rmlew

“It is said of all great matters under Heaven: What has been long divided must unite, what has been long united must divide.”

—Opening words of The Three Kingdoms Romance, a classic Chinese historical novel by Luo Guanzhong.

The beginning of a new year naturally turns one’s thoughts in a numerical direction. Furthermore, as we look forward to 2007, our imagination is liable to overshoot and find itself contemplating the more distant future: the next fifteen years for example. Why fifteen? Permit me to explain.

* * * * * * *

The ideas I am going to put forward here came about, as ideas often do, from the conjunction of two apparently unconnected events.

Event number one occurred as I was moving a pile of books from one inaccessible place in my attic to another. I turned up an old paperback titled Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? This book was a collection of essays by the Brezhnev-era Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik, the lead-off essay giving the book its title. That essay was written in 1969, so Amalrik was looking fifteen years ahead.

Amalrik’s essay makes dull reading now. He speaks at length of the social stresses in late-Soviet society, and predicts a war with China—a war which, of course, never happened. He was only seven years out in his prediction, though, which is pretty darn good as political prognostications go. And the essay did remind me what a great surprise the collapse of the USSR was to a lot of people, including a lot of high-paid experts. Walter Laqueur points out, in his book on the Soviet Union, that the U.S. government and all its agencies, including the CIA, over-estimated Soviet economic strength to the very end, in some cases by a factor of ten times.

I got to wondering whether some forecast as gloomy as Amalrik’s could be made for the present-day USA. If, following Amalrik’s example, we try to look forward 15 years, to 2022, what, if anything, can we see? There are of course many futures; but some are more probable than others. Are there any probable futures in which the USA has ceased to exist in 2022?

CONTINUED


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government
KEYWORDS: cwii; disolution; multiculturalism; nationalism; secession
This is an interesting piece but I see some major flaws in it.
1. The timespan is wrong. It will take at least another three generations for us to collapse. even liberals want to be Americans. They simply redefine it on their terms. This is also true for immigrants. Until this changes or numbers become overwhelming, we will still survive. Hence, I see 2 generations or 50 years as more reasonable.
As I have written in the past, the Goths have crossed the Danube, Hadrianople awaits.

2. The ethnocentric core the US did not reign supreme in 1960. That is the year that they ceded dominance.

1 posted on 01/03/2007 1:15:09 AM PST by rmlew
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To: Paleo Conservative; dennisw; stand watie; ex-snook

ping


2 posted on 01/03/2007 1:16:58 AM PST by rmlew (Having slit their throats may the conservatives who voted for Casey choke slowly on their blood.)
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To: gubamyster

ping


3 posted on 01/03/2007 1:20:13 AM PST by rmlew (Having slit their throats may the conservatives who voted for Casey choke slowly on their blood.)
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To: rmlew


While I'm sure this is a very interesting article, I believe this has all been covered by Zager and Evans.


4 posted on 01/03/2007 1:23:19 AM PST by james500
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To: rmlew
even liberals want to be Americans. They simply redefine it on their terms.

There is a difference is being an American as we have known it and being a "redefined American" such as being part of a North American Union. Being redefined out of existence in the next 15 years is a great threat, which is why getting control of the borders is such a dire necessity and an even greater priority than the war in Iraq.
5 posted on 01/03/2007 1:26:46 AM PST by Iwo Jima ("Close the border. Then we'll talk.")
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To: rmlew

I hope I'm dead.


6 posted on 01/03/2007 1:36:38 AM PST by Dallas59 (HAPPY NEW YEAR 2007!)
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To: rmlew
This will be the last year of the US. Then in 2008 Hellary will win POTUS, then it will end, and she will win because it`s now 2007 and Repubs still don`t have a candidate.

"Thank you! It`s been a wonderous 230 years, but I`ve just learned I`ve been fired!"

7 posted on 01/03/2007 1:52:19 AM PST by Screamname (My name is Screamname and I approve this message.)
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To: rmlew

Very interesting... but a long read. Well worth the time, though.


8 posted on 01/03/2007 2:24:38 AM PST by Mobile Vulgus
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To: Mobile Vulgus
Many interesting points are made, but I am stubborn in believing that this country's best days are still ahead of it. I have four children, my wife is not white (from Taiwan), and I am trying to raise them as Christains first and American patriots second, to the best of my ability. Their resilience amazes me. I even will annoy you all by saying that I do not prefer any other time to the present, warts and all. I am hopeful for their future, and on the other hand if Jesus comes tomorrow, I pray frequently that we will all be ready.

Have a nice day, and go about the business of life.

9 posted on 01/03/2007 2:37:18 AM PST by ReveBM
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To: rmlew

saving


10 posted on 01/03/2007 2:50:09 AM PST by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like what you say))
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To: rmlew
even liberals want to be Americans

Funny most of them I talk to these days define themselves as Earth Citizens, not Americans. No, this is not sarcasm...it is true. I can't count the times anymore that I've has one of their ilk tell me they don't consider themselves a US citizen.

The 'redefined' American is a thing of the past. Earth Citizenship is an ideal fast becoming popular.

11 posted on 01/03/2007 2:59:52 AM PST by EBH
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To: EBH

has...too early...

had


12 posted on 01/03/2007 3:00:59 AM PST by EBH
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To: ReveBM
"I have four children, my wife is not white (from Taiwan), and I am trying to raise them as Christains first and American patriots second, to the best of my ability."

Thank you. Leave it to a Brit (sorry all other Brits) to mechanically set fault lines. Lol. America will survive based on the glue that binds us and causes our critics to hate us with a vengeance.

On the overhand, Eurabia may well prove to be an oxymoron.

13 posted on 01/03/2007 3:22:04 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: rmlew

"even liberals want to be Americans."



But only because the entitlements are good. Wait until Social Security and Medicare must be cut, and they will bail out like rats from a sinking ship.


14 posted on 01/03/2007 3:29:42 AM PST by Brilliant
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To: Dallas59

I am sure there is a muslim close by that will be more than happy to accommodate you. There are millions here and not one of them places the USA above the cult of islam.


15 posted on 01/03/2007 3:33:21 AM PST by ByteMercenary (9-11: supported everywhere by followers of the the cult of islam.)
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To: rmlew

Wow! You are a true "The sky is falling" person. The United States is NOT going to fall. It is sad that you don't trust in God enough to know that we will be alright. There is nothing wrong with America that hasn't been there for years and years. Liberals were here in the 20's and I never read where people thought America was gone. The only time I believe I read where people thought America was gone was during Watergate because it was such an awful time for America. We have not had anything near that since.


16 posted on 01/03/2007 3:34:06 AM PST by napscoordinator
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To: james500

LOL!


17 posted on 01/03/2007 3:55:39 AM PST by SIDENET (Everybody was kung-fu fighting)
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To: EBH

Funny most of them I talk to these days define themselves as Earth Citizens, not Americans. No, this is not sarcasm...it is true. I can't count the times anymore that I've has one of their ilk tell me they don't consider themselves a US citizen.


Neither should we.


18 posted on 01/03/2007 3:57:20 AM PST by freedomfiter2 ("Modern, bureaucratic, unionized education is a form of intellectual child abuse." Newt Gingrich)
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To: napscoordinator
"It is sad that you don't trust in God enough to know that we will be alright."

That holds up only if the culture does an about face. Too many have turned their backs on God. Providence is not unconditional.

19 posted on 01/03/2007 4:21:56 AM PST by AIM-54
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20 posted on 01/03/2007 4:29:49 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: napscoordinator
was during Watergate because it was such an awful time for America. We have not had anything near that since.

Watergate was a cakewalk compared to the Clinton regime. Media hysterics made a mountain out of a molehill. The news media ran interference for Clinton.

21 posted on 01/03/2007 4:42:33 AM PST by Spirochete
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To: rmlew

ping


22 posted on 01/03/2007 5:15:05 AM PST by mek1959
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To: freedomfiter2
Neither should we.

Hear, hear!

23 posted on 01/03/2007 5:36:38 AM PST by Thermalseeker (Tennessee - The last Conservative rock sticking above a deep blue sea....)
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To: ReveBM

I agree and feel the report of our demise is being greatly exaggerated!


24 posted on 01/03/2007 5:39:12 AM PST by Mobile Vulgus
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To: napscoordinator
The only time I believe I read where people thought America was gone was during Watergate because it was such an awful time for America.
I lived through Watergate and it just wasn't that bad. This country has survived a lot worse including the Civil War.
25 posted on 01/03/2007 5:48:13 AM PST by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: napscoordinator
It is sad that you don't trust in God enough to know that we will be alright.

Prove that God wills the United States to last much longer.

26 posted on 01/03/2007 6:18:29 AM PST by GingisK
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To: rmlew
PONG!

you know what i think. the FIRST indication is when "Le Republique de Quebecois" is formed from the current province of Quebec.

free dixie,sw

27 posted on 01/03/2007 6:46:19 AM PST by stand watie ("Resistance to tyrants is OBEDIENCE to God." - T. Jefferson, 1804)
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To: rmlew
I was thinking the other day that when I meet my Father and Forefathers in the hereafter, that I will have to explain why and how I let the Country they built, fought and bled for just fade away.

I can't even offer a good explanation to my kids why we're headed in the direction we are. I'm not sure I even recognize this country anymore. One reason - no habla espanol.

28 posted on 01/03/2007 7:25:17 AM PST by The Sons of Liberty (Former SAC Trained Killer)
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To: GingisK

Prove that God wills the United States to last much longer.




I don't have to prove because I have faith and trust in God. I did not know you were an athiest. Sorry!


29 posted on 01/03/2007 7:33:05 AM PST by napscoordinator
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To: Screamname

Duncan Hunter is the candidate to go with if you want to at least have a fight for it in the next election.


30 posted on 01/03/2007 7:59:07 AM PST by bushfamfan (DUNCAN HUNTER FOR PRES. 2008)
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To: EBH; rmlew
Funny most of them I talk to these days define themselves as Earth Citizens, not Americans. No, this is not sarcasm...it is true. I can't count the times anymore that I've has one of their ilk tell me they don't consider themselves a US citizen.

The 'redefined' American is a thing of the past. Earth Citizenship is an ideal fast becoming popular.

The absolute and relative number of people espousing that viewpoint will drop dramatically when the first Iranian/North Korean/Al Qaida nukes go off in big cities. I'm certainly not hoping for this - even if it means conservative dominance for 100 years - but I think that it'll happen before long. I pray that I'm wrong about that.

31 posted on 01/03/2007 8:06:43 AM PST by Ancesthntr
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To: napscoordinator
I did not know you were an athiest.

I'm not an atheist. I just don't know what God is thinking. This Nation has, by in large, turned from God. Historically speaking, this is not how a nation gains favor from God.

The only behavioral increases I see through the years indicate that the American people will continue to reject God and the Founding Principles. This Nation will not endure as we know it unless these trends are reversed. I don't see this happening until the majority returns to the original foundations.

32 posted on 01/03/2007 8:33:07 AM PST by GingisK
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To: rmlew

Thanks for ping.

The States will survive but they won't be United. Two downers,
more allegiance to foreign interests than to America and money controls Washington.


33 posted on 01/03/2007 9:02:17 AM PST by ex-snook ("But above all things, truth beareth away the victory.")
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To: rmlew; Eaker; AK2KX; Ancesthntr; ApesForEvolution; archy; backhoe; Badray; t_skoz; Becki; ...

An interesting article. If the USA is going to come apart it's not going to happen with a wimper, but rather with a BANG! CWII Ping.


34 posted on 01/03/2007 9:20:13 AM PST by Jack Black
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To: napscoordinator
The United States is NOT going to fall. It is sad that you don't trust in God enough to know that we will be alright.
---
You haven't looked at the fine print. God promised us victory. He did not, however, promise that it would be in this life.

The Christian Roman Empire of 400AD was headed for disaster, centuries of barbarism.

The Christian Byzantine Empire of 1400AD was headed for disaster, centuries of barbarism.

God has His agenda. I will not presume to state that it includes the preservation of the United States. It may not. I will do what I can, the rest is up to Him.
35 posted on 01/03/2007 10:23:12 AM PST by Cheburashka ( World's only Spatula City certified spatula repair and maintenance specialist!!!)
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To: rmlew

Read the article, all 14 pages, and found it very interesting. He hits on the major fault lines in the US, and recognizes that historically countries with those problems do not remain unified.

We are in much the same position that the later Roman Empire was. In short, we are not longer united culturally.


36 posted on 01/03/2007 11:30:27 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: rmlew
“It is said of all great matters under Heaven: What has been long divided must unite, what has been long united must divide.”

Good article. Rising standards of living tie America together. If the economy seriously jams or sputters or dives, watch out.

Our political system has shown a resiliency that others haven't so tyranny isn't to be expected here if things go wrong. But we could easily break up into competing -- even warring -- factions.

37 posted on 01/03/2007 2:06:11 PM PST by x
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To: rmlew

Interesting piece.

I really don't like the idea of this happening in my lifetime (I'm in my early 30s).

All I know is that the longer we are divided, the closer we get to an event where we won't be able to live side by side in our current form. I hope we can find solutions to our problems; however, how do you reconcile secularism vs having religious values? It's harder and harder all the time considering the extremes that we've gotten to in our public discourse....you can't kinda sorta be for killing babies - either you are or you aren't. (For example)


38 posted on 01/03/2007 6:17:46 PM PST by kcbc2001
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To: x

The economy WILL fail, in a big, BIG way!
The constant devaluation of the dollar - thanks to the Fed - and the recent trend for the Chinese to stop supporting the dollar world-wide will ultimately lead to a HUGE crash that will make the original Depression seem like nirvana.
Ultimately, the US will fail for either these reasons OR the unwillingness to stop the illegal hordes working on establishing Azetlan. But it WILL happen; probably within the next 30 years.

And personally, we may find that it is NOT a bad thing.

You know, we are of two worldviews in this country; and those world views are polar opposites.
One believes that life is precious, and should be protected.
The other believes that life is a "choice" that should be eradicated at will.

One believes that the law is what it says.
The other believes that law can be 'interpretted' into whatever you want it to be.

One believes in self-reliance, and the freedom of choice to give Christian charity to the needy.
The other believes in equality of results, and no personal charity, but a government welfare state.

One believes it is not only a God-given right, but possibly even a responsibility to keep and bear arms.
The other believes that guns are evil, and only a professional military (who they really don't like) should have them.

Most people in the first catagory live in the Bible-belt South and heartland.
Most in the second live in the northeast and west coasts.

I don't want to force my views on them. And I sure don't want their views forced on me (but they ARE, currently)

Let the US end, if it means we get freedom back...


39 posted on 01/09/2007 2:29:18 PM PST by Jsalley82
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