Posted on 02/16/2007 5:58:43 AM PST by PDR
To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.
To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.
In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign. But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.
As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.
Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.
Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.
Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.
Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.
But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.
The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com.
Newt's a brilliant man.
Which is why the left considers him evil. In their eyes, conservatives are either dumb or evil.
Newt 2008. Nuff said.
I'll pick Newt over McCain or Giuliani.
Then it would just be a matter of getting enough incriminating photos of leading Dems to get them approved.
I guess the toe sucker doesn't realize that Mormans are not a race.
Definitely. I can't imagine who wouldn't.
I'd love to see it. I just have a hard time picturing how he can overcome the picture the MSM painted of him while he was speaker.
ping.
I love Newt AND Duncan Hunter.... I'd be happy with either, but I fear the DBM/MSM will dredge up the past and pound away at Newt and destroy him again like they did Allen.
if one hates Jews or Catholics because of their faith it is, correctly in my view, defined as racism... so I think Morris is correct, at least as a matetr of language.
I like Newt and would vote for him, but he doesn't have a chance of winning the Presidency. The media can too easily rally public hatred against the guy. His unfavorable ratings will be over 40% and that is too large to overcome.
The guy that will win presidency is one who has low unfavorables ( a milk toast, who is passive and uncontroversial and does not appear too Christian, not too intellectual).
Newt is too smart. The public hate intellectuals.
He is too combative, they hate people who will fight for what is right.
He is too conservative, and will be rbanded a right wing zealot which is worse than being branded a homosexual zealot.
I worry that Newt will bring out democrat voters in force. I think he would better serve us by endorsing someone like Hunter.
It's a wait and see for now isn't it. September seems to be the month when allegedly Newt and Gore are supposed to announce decisions.
BTW this was posted already on the 13th with many responses.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1784412/posts
Run Newt, Run!!
Well, Hillary is the Democratic frontrunner....and if she was an ordinary citizen would be or would have done jail time. I don't think Newt's speaker period is even close to that. And I truly believe in Clinton-Bush fatigue. We need a break from both families.
If Newt's running, he'd better get it from the beginning and not listen to the likes of Dick Morris.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.