Posted on 02/16/2007 5:58:43 AM PST by PDR
To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.
To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.
In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign. But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.
As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.
Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.
Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.
Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.
Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.
But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.
The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com.
"I'll pick Newt over McCain or Giuliani."
ME TOO!!!
I hadn't thought of that, but you could be right.
Newt is smart --- I'm sure he's seen the polling and he's probably comissioned his own polling. He's polarizing, but Hillary is too.
Rudy, and Mitt will get the same beating, maybe worse.
That's the only reason he'd even have a shot.
Personally, I don't like his chances in the general election, but it's way too early for predictions. IF he's going to run, he needs to get in it now and not wait until October.
What's with his new fascination with Newt?
Agreed but if I had to put money on it today I'd say he won't run.
Hopefully, the same way Hillary's MSM-driven positives will be dashed: By opening their mouths
“Newt is too smart. The public hate intellectuals.
“He is too combative, they hate people who will fight for what is right.”
This is the way I see it:
We haven’t had a smart president in a long time. I think many of us would be excited beyond words to have someone with the intellect of Newt.
We also haven’t had a combative president, one who fights for our constitution rather than for the private interest groups while giving the middle finger to “we the people.” The newness of this is going to take the country by storm.
“He is too conservative, and will be rbanded a right wing zealot which is worse than being branded a homosexual zealot.”
A tad far fetched. It is obvious to me you are not a Newt person but prefer one out of the stable of weenies running for president.
But that is your choice, and this is America.
If he could just keep it close by the time of the debates he'd have a shot.
Newt Gingrich/Ben Stein '08
Think of all the conservative voters that will come out in force if the Bi$tch is the Dem's nomination.
Talk about the largest voter turnout in history, both Dems and Repubs...
Newt Gingrich/Ben Stein '08
I know a lot of people who want Newt in! Me included! GO NEWT!
Newt's playing it smart.
He's waiting for the demand to build up; he'll swoop in with a blitzkreig of ideas, and then any attacks on him personally will look desparate.
It probably won't work but it's his best chance.
I would love to see and hear Newt dissemble the dems in a presidential debate. It is a forum in which his intellect and knowledge would bury them.
""..It is obvious to me you are not a Newt person but prefer one out of the stable of weenies running for president. .."
wrong. I do like Newt. I voted for "Contract for America" and would support him for President, depending on whoelse was in the race.
But he cannot win. He is not a likeable kinda guy.
Since JFK the Presidency goes to the sexiest, most, telegenic, most personable person in the race.
Nobody thinks clinton won office because he was the best material to be President. He won because he was a darn sight more attractive than Bush.
Bush Jr was better looking, and marginally more likeable than Gore or Kerry.
Reagan was a heck of a lot better looking and personable than Carter.
This IS the problem when women are given the vote. I am dead serious.
The vast number of women have no idea why they vote for who they vote for. Polls all consistently show that they simply vote on emotion and rarely can tell any facts about the person they voted for.
The same is true for men, they have little idea what the candidate is about, but they are not as heavily influenced by the looks or sexual attractiveness of the candidate. They tend to try to have more intellectual reasons for their votes.
Ideas do not win presidencies. Ideas merely create controversy and people do not vote for controversial or aggressive characters.
The people want to feel good about themselves and their vote. Thats all. They want to be on the band wagon. They want a charismatic personality, sexy appearance, and someone to make them feel good, "Morning in America" kind of stuff.
he who has fewest controversial ideas wins. sorry.
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