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Zogby: Romney Rockets! (NH poll shows Romney tied with McCain at 25%; Giuliani trails at 19%)
Zogby.com ^ | April 5, 2007 | John Zogby

Posted on 04/05/2007 8:14:01 AM PDT by Unmarked Package

Latest New Hampshire telephone poll shows Romney's support nearly doubles to 25% to tie McCain; Giuliani trails at 19%

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has rocketed to the top of the field of contenders for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary crown, running dead even with Arizona Sen. John McCain at 25% each, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. With Romney’s ascension, the GOP presidential race looks just like the Democratic contest – a three–way battle!

While McCain has held mostly steady at the top of the Republican field in New Hampshire, losing just one point since January, Romney has made the big move up from 13% two months ago. Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York who is the toast of Republican primary voters nationally, finds himself in third place in the Granite State at 19% support, falling slightly from 20% in January to 19% this week.

Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator from Tennessee won 6% support in this latest survey of 502 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, which was conducted April 2-3, 2007, and contains a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: “Score this as a big week for Mitt Romney. These poll numbers, together with the small increase in Iowa and a huge fund–raising effort, puts him into the top tier and makes him a major player in the race for the GOP nomination. John McCain’s support stays steady and makes him a contender and gives him a boost in an otherwise lackluster week. Move over, Rudy. You’ve got a real race on your hands!”

Romney has a slight edge over McCain among men – 27% support Romney while 25% favor McCain. Giuliani gets 19% support among men. McCain wins support from 25% of women, followed by Romney (23%) and Giuliani (18%).

McCain is the favored candidate among younger respondents – nearly half (48%) of those 18-29 said they would vote for the former war hero–turned senator. There is also strong support for Romney among this age group, as 37% said they would support the former Massachusetts governor. Giuliani gets the most support from those age 30 to 49 at (28%) and leads the field over all other candidates among this age group.

Asked about the strength of support for their candidate, McCain shows a slight edge over the other top candidates – 88% of McCain supporters said their backing was strong, compared to 86% of Romney supporters and 85% of those supporting Giuliani.

Republicans in New Hampshire – 2007

Apr. 3

Jan. 18

 

 

 

Romney

25%

13%

McCain

25%

26%

Giuliani

19%

20%

Hagel

1%

3%

Huckabee

1%

1%

Hunter

1%

1%

Paul

2%

1%

Brownback

<1%

<1%

Tancredo

1%

3%

Fred Thompson

6%

--

Tommy Thompson

<1%

--

Not sure

17%

15%

More than half of respondents (54%) said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who is generally more conservative, while 37% said they would favor a more moderate candidate. Romney is the top choice of those who identify themselves as “conservative” and “very conservative”.

The vast majority respondents (85%) said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who stands up for what they believe in, regardless if they can win the general election. Younger respondents (age 18 to 29) were more likely than older respondents to favor a candidate who will stand by his or her beliefs – 96% in this age group feel this way, compared to 79% of those age 65 and older. Women (89%) are also more likely than men (82%) to say they would vote for the candidate who puts their beliefs first. Overall, 11% said they would rather have a candidate who can win.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; electionpresident; elections; fred; fredthompson; giuliani; mccain; romney; runfredrun; thompson; zogby
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1 posted on 04/05/2007 8:14:05 AM PDT by Unmarked Package
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To: Unmarked Package

Running neck and neck with McQueeg isn’t much of an accomplishment.


2 posted on 04/05/2007 8:15:37 AM PDT by LIConFem (Thompson 2008. Lifetime ACU Rating: 86 -- Hunter 2008 (VP) Lifetime ACU Rating: 92)
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To: AmericanMade1776; bcbuster; Bluestateredman; cardinal4; cgk; Choose Ye This Day; circumbendibus; ...
((( MITT ROMNEY PING )))

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ ON ] or [ OFF ] the Mitt Romney Ping List

3 posted on 04/05/2007 8:15:54 AM PDT by Unmarked Package (<<<< Click to learn more about the conservative record of Governor Mitt Romney)
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To: Unmarked Package; GovernmentIsTheProblem; Spiff; flashbunny

Wait, what happened to RUDY?


4 posted on 04/05/2007 8:16:33 AM PDT by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: Unmarked Package

McCain’s mysterious skin spot is his big opportunity to drop out with his self-respect still in tact. Should he hang on, it’s going to be a slow and painful decline and I don’t have high hope that he’ll go down gracefully... unfortunately.


5 posted on 04/05/2007 8:17:55 AM PDT by rhombus
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To: Unmarked Package; All
McCain is expecting to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire. I don't know which poll to pick though Zogby or these. Looks like Zogby or one of the other polls is wrong!

N.H. Presidential Preference Poll (New Hampshire: it's either Rudy McRomney, or else RON PAUL)

McCain, Giuliani Tied In Poll of New Hampshire GOP (CNN Poll)

McCain, Giuliani tied in poll of N.H. GOP (Rudy, Romney tied at 24 amongst conservative GOP voters)

6 posted on 04/05/2007 8:18:15 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: narses; flashbunny; GovernmentIsTheProblem
Wait, what happened to RUDY?

Check my post #6. All these polls came out yesterday. Now which one is accurate? Zogby or these? We will never know.

7 posted on 04/05/2007 8:19:47 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: areafiftyone

...Since the Presidential election of 2000, I think Zogby has been in the trash can as far as predictions....they appear to lean to the left as far as their politics go....IMO


8 posted on 04/05/2007 8:21:27 AM PDT by auto power
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To: areafiftyone

Rudy has peaked. The truth of who he is is spreading. Bye-bye Rudy.


9 posted on 04/05/2007 8:22:21 AM PDT by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: narses

Of course you would say that. But that is to be expected. I don’t see that happening yet though. When it does tell me. I’ll be sure to tell the Americans that are voting for him.


10 posted on 04/05/2007 8:23:44 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: Unmarked Package

You beat me to it, sorry for the double posting!


11 posted on 04/05/2007 8:24:01 AM PDT by sevenbak
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To: LIConFem
Running neck and neck with McQueeg isn’t much of an accomplishment.

Do you actually believe being tied for first is a bad thing in a race or a game?
12 posted on 04/05/2007 8:25:21 AM PDT by msnimje (True Conservatives will not support a pro-abortion candidate.)
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To: areafiftyone

Too funny. The GOP cannot win with a pro-abort gun grabber. He is toast.


13 posted on 04/05/2007 8:25:57 AM PDT by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: Unmarked Package

And this is even BEFORE New Hampshirites found out Mitt is a lifelong hunter! Wow!


14 posted on 04/05/2007 8:26:10 AM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose" -- Mitt Romney, April 2002)
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To: Unmarked Package

Fred Thompson at 6 percent? Don’t they know that he is the salvation of the social conservatives? Why, people think he’s president already because he played one on television. All we have to do is confuse them a little, distort their perceptions of fiction versus reality, and we can get the losers and perverts who outnumber us to vote for a social conservative (wink, wink).


15 posted on 04/05/2007 8:26:47 AM PDT by massadvj
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To: Unmarked Package

Now that the baseball season has started the Bostonian will never trail the New Yorker in the polls again in New England...


16 posted on 04/05/2007 8:28:22 AM PDT by Geronimo
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To: narses

He’s not toast actually. But I guess if its said enough you might think people will believe it. But don’t count on it. I believe you guys said “Stick a Fork in Him” when the first ‘YouTube” Video came out. Didn’t work. And this won’t work either. The American people are not stuck on one issue only.


17 posted on 04/05/2007 8:28:36 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: Unmarked Package

Good, I consider Romney the only electable one of the three. If Rudy can’t even secure the support of the northeast states, he’s done.


18 posted on 04/05/2007 8:30:13 AM PDT by yuta250
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To: Unmarked Package
Woo Hoo! I knew our fellow conservatives were not as confused as they seemed and that they'd eventually figure out who the most electable conservative is... Mitt.

Mitt is IT!

19 posted on 04/05/2007 8:31:04 AM PDT by redgirlinabluestate
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To: areafiftyone
The American people are not stuck on one issue only.
Nor is Rudy bad on just one issue. He is a crony of the corrupt Kerik. He is bad on abortion, guns, immigration and more. He toast.
20 posted on 04/05/2007 8:31:09 AM PDT by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: areafiftyone

The NH poll in your first link at post 6 is a month old.


21 posted on 04/05/2007 8:31:56 AM PDT by Graymatter (FREDeralist)
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To: Unmarked Package

Zogby’s playing with a flawed telephone poll here. The poll is playing to a more liberal group of respondents. Nationally, Mitt is still at 4% behind Newt Gingrich who is not even in the race. Perhaps his appeal is to the New Hampshire libs that want funding and support for abortion and gay marriage.

McCain actually polled higher than him among likely voters, which this poll did not represent. His liberal credentials will bring out the CINOS and liberals who want to sway the GOP race to the liberal CINO.

Telephone Polling is inherently flawed.


22 posted on 04/05/2007 8:33:04 AM PDT by jatopilot99 (Mitt Romney is pro-abortion, pro-gay, and pro-euthanasia!)
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To: Unmarked Package
"Romney has a slight edge over McCain among men"

They must be likin' 'im for his looks, LOL!

More seriously this is terrific and a BIG boost. Romney's support will steadily increase as we have all predicted! : )

23 posted on 04/05/2007 8:33:35 AM PDT by TAdams8591 (Giuliani is a democrat in Republican drag!)
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To: Unmarked Package

I wnder how the Rudy pickle smoochers will take this and spin it.


24 posted on 04/05/2007 8:34:10 AM PDT by Fierce Allegiance (One fish, two fish, I want to go catch bluefish.)
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To: areafiftyone

You nailed it AFO.....the American people know which issues are the most important to them....which is easy to define since the Democrats are all against everything the American people stand for.


25 posted on 04/05/2007 8:34:52 AM PDT by auto power
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To: Unmarked Package
It would be great or Romney if a REAL pollster can get similar results.

Zogby is never to be trusted in his polling or is words. He is not objective.
26 posted on 04/05/2007 8:34:53 AM PDT by msnimje (True Conservatives will not support a pro-abortion candidate.)
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To: Unmarked Package
He's a liberal...
27 posted on 04/05/2007 8:36:39 AM PDT by jatopilot99 (Mitt Romney is pro-abortion, pro-gay, and pro-euthanasia!)
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To: Fierce Allegiance
I wonder how the Rudy pickle smoochers will take this and spin it.

As a Fellow Gerkin you can read my spin post #6.

28 posted on 04/05/2007 8:36:54 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: areafiftyone
"The American people are not stuck on one issue only."

You are correct.

They are stuck on other issues, such as...

Which side does Rudy fall on the above?
29 posted on 04/05/2007 8:37:08 AM PDT by lormand (Liberals - the barbarians of our time.)
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To: lormand

Actually Taxes and maybe immigration are what they are interested in.


30 posted on 04/05/2007 8:38:04 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: jatopilot99
Romney has been working extremely hard in NH and thus I don’t believe it’s fair to say these numbers are only due to a flawed telephone poll. Furthermore, his fund-raising success has likely had a most positive effect! : )
31 posted on 04/05/2007 8:38:48 AM PDT by TAdams8591 (Giuliani is a democrat in Republican drag!)
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To: areafiftyone

Rudy may be god on taxes most of the time, but lwering taxes without lowering spending is not sound fiscal policy. Look at his NYC record, it’s certainly not stellar.


32 posted on 04/05/2007 8:40:17 AM PDT by Fierce Allegiance (One fish, two fish, I want to go catch bluefish.)
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To: msnimje

At this stage of the game, there is no “first”. And my comment was more a knock against McCain than Romney.


33 posted on 04/05/2007 8:41:00 AM PDT by LIConFem (Thompson 2008. Lifetime ACU Rating: 86 -- Hunter 2008 (VP) Lifetime ACU Rating: 92)
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To: jatopilot99
Romney is not the proven conservative on social issues we would all prefer, but he isn't a Liberal either.

Oh, is Ted a faithful husband , father of five, grandfather of ten, married faithfully to only one woman all his life?

34 posted on 04/05/2007 8:42:29 AM PDT by TAdams8591 (Giuliani is a democrat in Republican drag!)
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To: jatopilot99
Telephone Polling is inherently flawed.

I think all polling is inherently flawed. Remember when John Kerry and Al Gore were supposed to win hands down over George Bush?

35 posted on 04/05/2007 8:42:32 AM PDT by MEGoody (Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.)
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To: narses

Where’s Duncan?


36 posted on 04/05/2007 8:42:55 AM PDT by zarf (Her hair was of a dank yellow, and fell over her temples like sauerkraut......)
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To: Fierce Allegiance

I did look at his record. And I do have the stats but I don’t want to post them on this thread because it doesn’t have much to do with this poll. And I don’t want to spam his thread.


37 posted on 04/05/2007 8:42:58 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: narses

A VERY bad week for Rudy.


38 posted on 04/05/2007 8:44:17 AM PDT by Zechariah11
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To: narses

Romney’s a Mormon and a flip flopping baby killer. True conservatives will stick with Duncan Hines or commit suicide.


39 posted on 04/05/2007 8:45:09 AM PDT by zarf (Her hair was of a dank yellow, and fell over her temples like sauerkraut......)
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To: redgirlinabluestate
"Mitt is IT!"

Ooh, I like that! : )

40 posted on 04/05/2007 8:45:19 AM PDT by TAdams8591 (Giuliani is a democrat in Republican drag!)
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To: jatopilot99

Are you cuttign and pasting this response to UP as you did to mine?


41 posted on 04/05/2007 8:45:34 AM PDT by sevenbak
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To: areafiftyone

“like a record, baby
Right round round round”


42 posted on 04/05/2007 8:45:51 AM PDT by Fierce Allegiance (One fish, two fish, I want to go catch bluefish.)
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To: zarf

Unfortunately, staying with Duncan Hines is suicide.


43 posted on 04/05/2007 8:46:58 AM PDT by TAdams8591 (Giuliani is a democrat in Republican drag!)
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To: Unmarked Package

Weird that McCain and Romney are tied here. Romney’s a next-door neighbor, but the McCain part is puzzling. Also Fred Thompson is doing respectably at 6% but it hasn’t come from Romney, Rudy, or McCain.


44 posted on 04/05/2007 8:48:20 AM PDT by RockinRight (Support FREDeralism. Fred Thompson in 2008!)
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To: Unmarked Package

Romney has been polling mid-teens to low-twenties in New Hampshire for months. This poll is not a huge shocker. It is nice to see him tied for the lead. I know Zogby is currently the most favorable pollster, but let’s assume that this poll is close to an outlier of reality and let’s apply the total margin of error. That would put Mitt at 19 tied with Rudy. So the worse case for Mitt is that he is running tied for 2nd.


45 posted on 04/05/2007 8:48:47 AM PDT by nowandlater
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To: zarf
True conservatives will stick with Duncan Hines or commit suicide.

Just like they did in the last election?!?!! Your "true conservatives" just sent Pelosi to Syria and is taking the funding from our troops. Keep up the good work!

46 posted on 04/05/2007 8:49:03 AM PDT by sevenbak
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To: massadvj

Get over it, Mass. Just like Romney, Rudy, and McCain, Fred does great in some states, not as well in others. He beats Romney in a lot of polls and is even steven with McCain in one.


47 posted on 04/05/2007 8:49:43 AM PDT by RockinRight (Support FREDeralism. Fred Thompson in 2008!)
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To: Fierce Allegiance
Rudy pickle smoochers

You owe me a new keyboard for that one!

48 posted on 04/05/2007 8:50:30 AM PDT by RockinRight (Support FREDeralism. Fred Thompson in 2008!)
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To: sevenbak

Well, it’s a duplicate thread so why not?


49 posted on 04/05/2007 8:50:32 AM PDT by jatopilot99 (Mitt Romney is pro-abortion, pro-gay, and pro-euthanasia!)
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To: TAdams8591

Romney’s the real deal. He will win the nomination in a walk....Fred or no Fred.


50 posted on 04/05/2007 8:50:57 AM PDT by zarf (Her hair was of a dank yellow, and fell over her temples like sauerkraut......)
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