Skip to comments.Poll: Giuliani leads Romney in Massachusetts (Suffolk University Poll)
Posted on 04/19/2007 10:14:51 AM PDT by areafiftyone
With the March 4, 2008 Massachusetts Primary election less than a year away, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has opened up a 12% lead over former Governor Mitt Romney (33%-21%) among likely Republicans and Independents who lean Republican, according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll released today. Republican Senator John McCain polled third (18%), with 12% undecided.
“This poll suggests that Romney’s decline is due to a movement among Independents from McCain to Giuliani,” said David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Romney trailed both Giuliani and McCain among Republicans, but was trounced by Giuliani among Independents who vote Republican. This speaks to the broad appeal of Giuliani to place first over a favorite son Governor whose unpopularity rose among Independents over the past year.”
On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary Clinton (32%) easily bested former Senator John Edwards (19%), Sen. Barack Obama (18%), and former Vice President Al Gore (13%), with 12% undecided.
Senator John Kerry, who recently left the door open to a Presidential bid in 2008, could have problems staying in the US Senate. When voters were asked whether Kerry should run for another six-year term in 2008 or if it is time to give someone else a chance, just 37% indicated that he should seek re-election while 56% said that it was time to give someone else a chance. Among political parties: 76% of Republicans, 62% of Independents, and 39% of registered Democrats said that it was time to give someone else a chance.
“This poll is showing us the early warning signs of a political storm for John Kerry,” said Paleologos. “He may best be served by coming home to Massachusetts and taking care of business.”
After 100 days of service to the Commonwealth, Governor Deval Patrick remains personally popular and is considered the most powerful person on Beacon Hill, though few give him high grades. When asked to name the most powerful person on Beacon Hill, 40% said “Governor Deval Patrick.” In addition, Patrick scored a 53% favorable and 25% unfavorable rating after 100 days in office, slightly lower than the 60% favorable and 29% unfavorable rating he recorded on election day in November, 2006. In a re-run of the General Election, Patrick topped former Lt. Governor Kerry Healey by 19%, just three percent less than his landslide win last November.
Overall, voters gave Patrick an “M” for mediocre. Just 12% graded Patrick’s performance as “above average,” while 48% said “average” and 33% said “below average.”
The early missteps of the Patrick Administration left voters perfectly divided: 48% said that Patrick had made more mistakes than they expected while 48% said that he had not.
In other poll findings, the majority of voters continue to believe that Massachusetts is on the wrong track, although improving slightly. When asked, do you think Massachusetts is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track, 44% indicated wrong track while 37% said right direction. This is slightly better than the 52% wrong track and 31% right direction recorded on election day 2006.
The most popular political figures in the statewide poll were Boston Mayor Thomas M. Menino, who had a 58% favorable and 19% unfavorable rating; and Attorney General Martha Coakley, who had a 58% favorable and 11% unfavorable rating.
The Suffolk University statewide poll was conducted April 12 through April 15. The margin of error (moe) is +/- 4.90% at a 95% level of confidence. All 400 Massachusetts likely voters indicated they were registered voters. The Democratic subsample of 220 carries a moe of +/-6.61% and the Republican subsample of 100 carries a moe of +/- 9.80%.
Suffolk University is scheduled to release 252 pages of cross-tabulation data, marginals, and charts on its website Wednesday, April 18.
Of course - rudy is even more liberal than romney.
Mitt better kick it into high gear.
Looks like Kerry is in trouble in his home state!
I heard only wealthy liberals can survive in Massachusetts.
When are the first debates. I think they will clear up a lot of things.
If Romney can’t even get his home state GOP to support him it makes me wonder how well he will do in swing states in the general election.
Well, this answers one question we’ve all been asking: what will happen to the McClame people when they realize he can’t win. Looks like they are going to Rudy.
May 3rd! Very soon!
It's running to the center because people know there's a whole bunch of independent wishy-washy moderates out there who actually decide elections.
Great, I’m ready for some debates. I want to see these candidates front and center and see who has the communication skills to get through to people. Reagan wouldn’t have been Reagan without his communication skills.
I think his home state is Utah. At least he certainly acts that way. Perhaps it was his involvement with the Olympics.
I am very excited about this debate. PLUS it will be in the Reagan Library! WOOOO HOOO!
Suffolk? 2nd worst poll methodology I’ve seen today...after Quinnipiac. They polled 100 Republicans and Independents that SAID they’d likely vote....and SAID they were registered. Whereas they SHOULD have gotten the registration rolls, asked about past voting to vet “likely voters” and included more than 100 people.
How’s the money poll going again?
I love the hell out of Mitt, but I’m voting for Giuliani because he’s the Republicans’ best choice to defeat the clintons and conduct the GWOT. There are still ways Romney can serve the country...maybe in President Giuliani’s cabinet, maybe run for Senate against Kerry in 08.
How many "independents who lean republican" can there be in MA??
Julie-Annie is “skirting ahead” of the pack.../s
I agree. Romney can make a big name for himself in the Rudy administration!
Yep,two New York libruls. Putting Rooty up as the “R” nominee is the only way the hildebeast stands a chance at POTUS. BTW,who was the last President from the “Rustbelt”? Kennedy?
No way. After his sudden conversion to socially conservative positions, he's finished in Massachusetts.
To know Romney well is to be sick of his BS flip-flopping phony act.
Romney is the only candidate in this race who has ever vetoed a measure (well, several) on the basis that it wasn’t socially conservative.
That speaks for something, even if some choose not to acknowlege it.
Yes, it does. It says that he used to be socially conservative on *some* issues.
The fact remains that in the last few years (roughly equating with his decision to run for national office) he has changed his formerly firm stances on several other issues.
Even if some choose not to acknowledge it.
Ronald Reagan: former Democrat. Barred from being a conservative today?
Yes, I’m biased. Romney is, in my estimation, the only candidate out there addressing the true problems in our immigration system (and not just the illegal aspects of it), in our regulations on businesses, and regarding healthcare.
That he’s really the only major candidate speaking on social issues and has a voting record (even if it’s only a more recent one) to back up his words sits fine with me. Perhaps not with others, which is only natural.
Ronald Reagan: former Democrat. Barred from being a conservative today?
No, of course not. The only way the party will grow is by embracing folks of all backgrounds.
I just question Romney's sincerity.
That hes really the only major candidate speaking on social issues and has a voting record (even if its only a more recent one) to back up his words sits fine with me. Perhaps not with others, which is only natural.
It's the admittedly recent nature of that voting record that troubles me. I might be more willing to give him a break were he to run for the Senate. He could earn some credit, put his money where his mouth is. But it's an awfully big leap to make, trusting that the man who was awfully liberal just a few years ago is now a solid conservative.
Right now, Romney reminds me more than a little of Mike Bloomberg.
I won't fault you for being willing to trust he'll do what he says (now) if he gets into the White House. It's just not a leap of faith I'm willing to make.
The first GOP debate is May 3 in California -
the wealthy Mormons and Wall-Streeters that make up Romney’s narrow base of support are gonna be flabbergast with disappointment at Romney’s lack of intelligence. Oh that money they have thrown away by throwing money all to a general election loser . . .
if Mitt Romney is the GOP’s hope for 2008 they may as well start getting ready against Hilary’s re-election bid in 2012.
Gotta run, LOL, I'm having a busy day today.
How much of Romney are you seeing in Iowa?