Skip to comments.Rudy Down as Fred Rises
Posted on 04/20/2007 5:50:43 AM PDT by Josh Painter
"The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that Rudy Giuliani has started coming back to the pack after a surprisingly successful first quarter. John McCain has managed to hold his ground, and Fred Thompson appears to be the beneficiary of Rudy's retreat," says Ed Morrissey at Captain's Quarters. He continues...
"Thompson had not been included in the polling until now, and the drop in Rudy's numbers might reflect the popularity of Thompson among conservatives looking for an electable alternative to the Mayor. He could just as easily have taken it from Newt Gingrich, though, who lost nine points from February and turned in his worst performance in the WaPo/ABC presidential poll so far, dropping down to 6%. Without Newt, though, Rudy still loses nine points in this poll and Fred gets 10%; without Fred, Rudy gets 37%. It appears most likely that Fred draws from Rudy's support.
Mitt Romney rebounded to tie Thompson, picking up five points in the last two months."
While I've long thought that Mitt Romney's campaign is the most vulnerable to a Fred Thompson challenge, it makes sense that Giuliani, too, is already seeing his numbers decline. Giuliani's main assets have been voters' sense that he is both a strong leader and can "win in November" - that is, beat Hillary Clinton or whomever the Democrats nominate. Those trumped the qualms that many conservatives had about Giuliani's liberalism on social issues. Against the unknown but well-funded Mitt Romney and against John McCain, whom conservatives are not passionate about, that was enough to make Giuliani the default choice.
But Fred Thompson is also viewed as a strong leader type, and as someone who can win in November - and his Senate record, while not perfectly conservative, is solid enough for conservatives...
(Excerpt) Read more at elephantbiz.com ...
Then, why would Fred violate Pres. Reagan's "11th Commandment!??"
So much for the efforts of Rudy boosters to paint us as unappeasables and 100 percenters.
Of course, the Rudy boosters also turn around and try to make Fred look less conservative - but all their attacks boomerang right back on Rudy, since any flaws Fred may have, Rudy also has - in a much worse form.
Bump for FRed...
The last time we elected an actor, things turned out pretty well.
“The last time we elected an actor, things turned out pretty well.”
How about this actor?
If Fred Thompson truly fits our criteria; then he should be our candidate. We should not rule out Duncan Hunter or Trecado(sp) by any means. They are I believe conservative and that is what we have been screaming for. Hopefully, we will not lose sight of this.
Bubba wasn’t acting.
Ooooo.....another absolutely irrelevant poll.
“This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone April 12-15, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,141 adults, including an oversample of African Americans, for a total of 206 black respondents. The results from the full survey have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.”
A poll of random “adults” is irrelevant. Only “likely PRIMARY VOTERS” is relevant and even then only after the summer.
Nice oversampling of black people too....’cause they sure are 18% of the population.
There’s no evidence of that. The latest polls from FOX News and Gallup both have Rudy at 35% while Thompson gets 8% and 10% respectively. Both of Fred’s numbers are well below high mark of 15% a few weeks ago. He’s stuck at around 10% along with Romney and Gingrich.
I know, I know, Fred hasn’t even declared or started an exploratory committee yet. Well let’s compare it with Rudy’s poll numbers before he announced the start of his exploratory committee on November 14, 2006.
According to Real Clear Politics, this is how he was polling before then:
(11/9-12/06) Cook/RT..........Rudy 27% McCain 25%
(11/12/06) Pew Research.......Rudy 27% McCain 26%
(11/9-12/06) Gallup...........Rudy 28% McCain 26%
(1/8/06)McLaughlin & Assoc....Rudy 26% McCain 26%
(1027-29/06) CNN..............Rudy 29% McCain 27%
Thompson’s 10% no longer looks as good as it may appear to some. This is exactly what many GOP leaders are looking at.
If you'd like to be a FRedHead let me or Howlin know.
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This conservative has joined the team, and I tell you it is warm and cozy and comfy, and the future is bright. Come on over, guys.
Most registered Republicans are not familiar with Giuliani’s very liberal positions on key social issues, but they will be.
And Rudy didn’t help his own cause with that talk of taxpayer-funded abortion in the CNN interview. A couple more interviews like that, and Giuliani will be down into single digits...
Oh jeez. You’ve gone and posted some factual information. :)
He took his licks on this when he went down to 27 in the polls last week. He is now back to 35. The informed public has pretty much absorbed the info, and adjusted. The uninformed public will swing in Rudy's favor because they are largely pro-choice, even the Republicans.
He found it out in pre-trial discovery.
You think he should have covered it up?
That would be dishonest and corrupt. Fred has fought against corruption from the beginning.
“Somehow, I doubt that they are taking Rudy at 35 and Fred at 8 to 10 as bad news over at Rudy Central. In fact, from what I hear, they are serving milk and cookies to all good conservatives who want to stop by, whether they decide to join the winning team or not.
This conservative has joined the team, and I tell you it is warm and cozy and comfy, and the future is bright. Come on over, guys.”
Why don’t you take you pro abortion, gun grabbing liberal, and peddle your papers someplace else!!!!
Thompson pulls significantly from all of the top tier (and Gingrich), but Giuliani takes the biggest hit.
The full poll is here: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=3053012&page=1
Take a look at question 40...
It asks Fred Thompson voters who their second choice is. The results are as follows:
T. Thompson 2
Basically, it seems he pulls from all candidates in rough proportion to how they’re doing in the polls. This means, however, that Rudy has the most to lose as the frontrunner.
This also lines up with the fact that polls that have pulled Fred out of the rotation have seen a big jump for Rudy.
Come on over, guys......" Uh, hello, Mr. Gopher. Yeah, it's me, Mr. Squirrel. Yeah, hi. Uh, just a harmless squirrel, not a plastic explosive or anything, ...... Thanks anyway massa