Skip to comments.Arctic ice cap melting 30 years ahead of forecast (annoying ice succesfully removed by man!)
Posted on 05/02/2007 8:41:50 AM PDT by dead
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Arctic ice cap is melting much faster than expected and is now about 30 years ahead of predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.S. ice expert said on Tuesday.
This means the ocean at the top of the world could be free or nearly free of summer ice by 2020, three decades sooner than the global panel's gloomiest forecast of 2050.
No ice on the Arctic Ocean during summer would be a major spur to global warming, said Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Center in Colorado.
"Right now ... the Arctic helps keep the Earth cool," Scambos said in a telephone interview. "Without that Arctic ice, or with much less of it, the Earth will warm much faster."
That is because the ice reflects light and heat; when it is gone, the much darker land or sea will absorb more light and heat, making it more difficult for the planet to cool down, even in winter, he said.
Scambos and co-authors of the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used satellite data and visual confirmation of Arctic ice to reach their conclusions, a far different picture than that obtained from computer models used by the scientists of the intergovernmental panel.
"The IPCC report was very careful, very thorough and cautious, so they erred on the side of what would certainly occur as opposed to what might occur," Scambos said in a telephone interview.
The wide possibility of what might occur included a much later melt up north, or a much earlier one, Scambos said.
"It appears we're on pace about 30 years earlier than expected to reach a state where we don't have sea ice or at least not very much in late summer in the Arctic Ocean," he said.
He discounted the notion that the sharp warming trend in the Arctic might be due to natural climate cycles. "There aren't many periods in history that are this dramatic in terms of natural variability," Scambos said.
He said he had no doubt that this was caused in large part by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which he said was the only thing capable of changing Earth on such a large scale over so many latitudes.
Asked what could fix the problem -- the topic of a new report by the intergovernmental panel to be released on Friday in Bangkok -- Scambos said a large volcanic eruption might hold Arctic ice melting at bay for a few years.
But he saw a continued warm-up as inevitable in the coming decades.
"Long-term and for the next 50 years, I think even the new report will agree that we're in for quite a bit of warming," Scambos said.
"We just barely now, I think, have enough time and enough collective will to be able to get through this century in good shape, but it means we have to start acting now and in a big way."
How many years ago was it that Ted Danson was crying that this planet only had 10 years of life left?
Was it 10 or 15?
LOL! Very funny! But I really didn’t need to see those images of Hugo and Hillary. LOL!
I know this, because Algore, who has children and grandchildren that will die if this continues, is not changing his lifestyle, but instead buying these credits. I propose to make them available to the poor liberals at a reduced rate. If anyone here is interesting in providing carbon credit subsides for the poor, please send send me the money directly.
Gee, it couldn't possibly be that the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" was just flat out wrong in their prediction. That would be impossible, we all know that meteorologists and weather prognosticators are always right.
Anyway, how do they explain their nonsense that melting ice flows raise the ocean level and endanger coastal land? Ice cubes melting in a glass of water do not raise the water level in the glass, nor will a melting iceberg raise the sea level.
Not only great or shipping and tourism but the possibilities for oil and mining are endless as long as we figure out a way to silence the environuts.
Good to cover all bases so you can be "correct" in a a few decades no matter how it goes.
Wonder if they're ignoring the Arctic Ocean Model....
Its just a guess on my part, but I would think the flow of more ice melt water in the ocean every year would cool the planet more than any amount of heat the exposed rocks could retain...
” Its the SUN stupid! “
That one on the lower right is particularly disturbing.
In the absence of ice, the “northwest passage” will finally become a reality.
What everyone is AFRAID to discuss is just what a dent this will put into the sale of Margaritas at all the bars
and cantinas up there.And do I have to remind you how much that will hurt the global economy?
Never heard of this guy.
I would take him more seriously if, instead of a title, we were provided with his past performance in analyzing and predicting in the area about which he's pontificating.
Opinions by technical types outside of the area of their training and experience is much more dangerous than the pronouncements of a totally ignorant doofus like, say, Al Gore.
I expect we'll be hearing more from this idiot, just like that "director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, James Hansen". I have never, ever read a single report, column or idea from him that relate to space, but he's on every moonbat "propaganda" global warming propaganda-mentary. Usual scattered throughout so he seems to be 20 different people. One nut.
LOL! That is the funniest photoshop I have ever seen. Who is the guy with the purple plastic hooters?
idiots deserve more respect than this slime. Hansen is an outright anti-human Stalinists. And to think, he he is given our tax dollars and a nice pension. I pray there is a special place in Hell for people like him. Him an his ilk would plunge us into 3rd world hell if they had their way. Evil elitists, the whole lot of them.
quiet...you can't let science FACTS get in the way :)
Just think of it!
Caribou population explodes due to warmer breeding areas!
Polar Bear and Black Bear Population explodes due to abundant Caribou!
Warmer waters means more plankton, which means more crab!
Abundant Plankton means more seals feeding on the fish and shellfish!
With a moniker like “U.S. Ice Expert” why, he must be a genius!
Here is an alternate theory...
I have read the same theory. The theory is that if the Arctic does not freeze, there will be massive increases in precipitation to snow over the high Northern latitudes, increasing glaciation.
Yeah. Sure it is.