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GOP Faces Tough Odds for 2008 Senate Comeback [Unless...]
Congressional Quarterly ^ | Jun. 05, 2007 | Staff

Posted on 06/06/2007 1:46:46 PM PDT by Sleeping Beauty

Republican Party strategists, even under expected circumstances, knew they faced a difficult imbalance in the 2008 lineup of Senate races. The GOP have 21 seats to defend to just 12 for the Democrats.

Moreover, the political landscape in those 33 states looks forbidding, at least at this early stage of the 2008 campaign cycle. CQPolitics.com’s current ratings of the races show five contests for Republican-held seats that appear highly competitive to just two for Democratic-held seats.

So it was with some political trepidation, along with sadness, that Republican officials received the news Monday night that Wyoming Republican Sen. Craig Thomas had died of leukemia at age 74.

State law requires the interim appointment of a member of the departed incumbent’s party — a Republican, in this case — to soon to fill the vacancy, even though Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal is a Democrat. But the law also sets up a special election in November 2008 to fill the remaining four years of the unexpired term Thomas won just last November.

It is unlikely that this unscheduled contest will rise initially into the competitive race category, given Wyoming’s normally strong Republican proclivities. But it will give the GOP a 22nd seat to defend, and could cause at least some diversion of vital campaign resources — especially if the Democrats, emboldened by the six-seat gain in 2006 that gave them their narrow control of the Senate, were to decide to throw some political venture capital into the race.


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008
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As far as I can see -- we can hold and win Senate seats IF -- and only if -- we elect a Republican president.

For that reason, I will vote for ANYONE who wins the nomination -- even Rudy or Ron Paul.

What about you?

1 posted on 06/06/2007 1:46:48 PM PDT by Sleeping Beauty
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To: Sleeping Beauty

Actually, we need to win the Presidency with a Republican, and we also need to kill the Immigration Bill, which is what 85% of the population wants. If the Immigration Bill passes, many GOP faithful will work against those Republican Senators who support it. Sorry to break that news to everyone.


2 posted on 06/06/2007 1:50:01 PM PDT by TommyDale (Rudy Giulianiís candidacy is fading faster than an abortionistís conscience.)
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To: Sleeping Beauty
For that reason, I will vote for ANYONE who wins the nomination -- even Rudy or Ron Paul.

Well, I'd vote for Ron Paul regardless. Except he can't even win the GOP nomination, let alone actually be elected President.

However, any Republican Senator who votes for the Mexican Invasion Surrender Bill won't be going back to the Senate after his current term expires. You can take that to the bank.

3 posted on 06/06/2007 1:50:08 PM PDT by sourcery (Democrat: n. 1. Quiche-eating surrender donkey.)
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To: Sleeping Beauty

RINOS put us in this position.
I will not vote for a RINO period.


4 posted on 06/06/2007 1:50:59 PM PDT by conserv8ive1 (Rudy and the Bots...blasting off to oblivion.)
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To: Sleeping Beauty

You start out with guaranteed losers, like Graham and Hagel.


5 posted on 06/06/2007 1:51:48 PM PDT by oldbill
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To: Sleeping Beauty
As far as I can see -- we can hold and win Senate seats IF -- and only if -- we elect a Republican president. For that reason, I will vote for ANYONE who wins the nomination -- even Rudy or Ron Paul. What about you?

Ditto that.

I'll strongly support my candidate (currently Romney) in the primary, and I'll vote for the eventual Republican nominee in the general. ...even if it's *gag* Giuliani or *gag* McFeign.

National elections are just too close right now to mess with third parties, IMO. All it does is throw the election to the other side.

6 posted on 06/06/2007 1:52:07 PM PDT by TChris (The Republican Party is merely the Democrat Party's "away" jersey - Vox Day)
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To: conserv8ive1

Why would I vote for a RINO....If I wanted a democRAT I’d vote for a democRAT


7 posted on 06/06/2007 1:57:15 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (Don't you think it's interesting how death and destruction seems to happen wherever Muslims gather.)
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To: TChris
National elections are just too close right now to mess with third parties, IMO. All it does is throw the election to the other side.

On that note, I'm praying the Ralph Nader has a political viagra moment -- and enters the race. It's worked for us at least twice. Comon Ralph!

8 posted on 06/06/2007 1:57:50 PM PDT by Sleeping Beauty
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To: Sleeping Beauty
On that note, I'm praying the Ralph Nader has a political viagra moment -- and enters the race. It's worked for us at least twice. Comon Ralph!

Or, better yet, Hillary could go Independent if Obama gets the Dem nomination. :-) :-) :-)

9 posted on 06/06/2007 1:59:14 PM PDT by TChris (The Republican Party is merely the Democrat Party's "away" jersey - Vox Day)
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To: sourcery

I am convinced there is a big pay off if they lose. Hey they can hang out at some cushy law firm with multi million dollar salaries or join a lobbying firm for big bucks. Or they can be like Scuzzborough and go to work for PMSNBC and be a GOP analyst.

It does not matter how they vote or if they are defeated, it is a win-win for these traiterous bastards.


10 posted on 06/06/2007 2:03:09 PM PDT by lone star annie
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To: Sleeping Beauty

>>>What about you?

I will only vote for a conservative, regardless of party.


11 posted on 06/06/2007 2:04:19 PM PDT by Calpernia (Breederville.com)
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To: Sleeping Beauty

Actually, I am so fed up with the Republicans with this amnesty bill, I don’t even care.


12 posted on 06/06/2007 2:05:06 PM PDT by nyconse
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To: Sleeping Beauty

I couldn’t agree with you more Sleeping Beauty.


13 posted on 06/06/2007 2:06:41 PM PDT by Mister Politics (www.misterpolitics.com)
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To: Sleeping Beauty

I won’t vote for any liberal. Period.


14 posted on 06/06/2007 2:09:05 PM PDT by MrEdd (L. Ron Gore creator of "Fry-n-tology" the global warming religion.)
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To: Sleeping Beauty
GOP Faces Tough Odds for 2008 Senate Comeback

And they are currently doing their damndest to make those odds utterly insurmountable by pushing the National Suicide Amnesty bill.

Clearly, the Stupid Party is well named.

15 posted on 06/06/2007 2:12:38 PM PDT by Regulator
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To: Sleeping Beauty
I will vote for ANYONE who wins the nomination -- even Rudy or Ron Paul. What about you?

I wont vote for McCain under any circumstance; he has no allegiance to the Republican Party whatsoever.

16 posted on 06/06/2007 2:15:03 PM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: Sleeping Beauty

Let’s consider this Senate thing the other way around ... let’s assume the Democrat wins the President.

IF the Democrat wins the President, they WILL INCREASE their hold on the Senate, and RETAIN the House.

And, they WILL COME INTO CONTROL OF THE SUPREME COURT.

These are very sobering thoughts.

A left-socialtist, green, multi-cultural America.

Now, if the Republican wins the President, in a close race, I’d say the most probable result in the Senate is net zero or net 1. But, in any case, I don’t see the Senate changing much one way or the other.

I do believe we will pick up the House, but not by a wide margin.

This means that, to really move our agenda, we will have to do, in 2010 and 2012, what George W. Bush did in 2002 and 2004. But, at least we will be setting the agenda, and making incremental gains, instead of seeing the other side moving to consolidate power in this country, the way they are consolidating power in Venezuela.

This is why I think we have to be very serious about backing a candidate who can win.

Now, relative to CQ ratings ... I can see some upside potential for our side:

Arkansas - if Gov. Huckabee sets his sights on the Senate. (Was he terrific at the 3rd debate or what!)

New Jersey (and possibly even Michigan) - Rudy is showing very well in this state (and also in New Jersey and Pennsylvania). If Tom Kean could be enticed into a second run, we might win.

Iowa - Gov. Pawlenty would make a good running mate for every one of the front-runners. This could help us in the senate race in this neighboring state (and also in South Dakota).

Montana - We lost a Senate seat, in a very close election, in this state with an ethically-challenged incumbent. There’s a certain former Governor out there who should have been our nominee last year for the Senate, and might be persuaded to be our nominee next year.

If we were to pick up one or two of these seats, where we’re not expected to be competitive - “surprise pick-ups,” if you will - we could might start to think of net 2.


17 posted on 06/06/2007 2:15:58 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Sleeping Beauty
Elections, even national ones such as US Senators and Representatives, I am convinced are still local matters. A conservative candidate with a strong, active base, can win in nearly any area with some exceptional congressional districts.

Based solely on listening and reading protests, this immigration amnesty and illegals getting a pass on papers has disaffected a large number of legal and naturalized aliens. A case could made that strong messages to the black, Asian, and Hispanic communities regarding the cost to them that will come with this bill. Put the blame squarly on the Democrat party. Republicans can hold firm on this and hold on to this legislation until the McCain's and Gulianies are out of the race. Perhaps the republicans will feel less pressure if they realize that a strong border conservative is likely to be the nominee.

18 posted on 06/06/2007 2:17:09 PM PDT by lag along
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To: TommyDale

Don’t be so upset with immigrants. When the Democrats take over this country, you’ll be trying to be admitted into Australia.


19 posted on 06/06/2007 2:18:09 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Sleeping Beauty
"Moreover, the political landscape in those 33 states looks forbidding, at least at this early stage of the 2008 campaign cycle."

Hint to win. Get in tune with what the voters want. If the GOP can't do that, well TS [an old army expression, first word tough].

20 posted on 06/06/2007 2:19:44 PM PDT by ex-snook ("But above all things, truth beareth away the victory.")
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