Skip to comments.McCain follows Giuliani, will skip Iowa straw poll
Posted on 06/07/2007 4:51:02 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
Hours after former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) announced that he would skip the Iowa straw poll, the campaign of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Wednesday that it would follow suit.
In light of todays news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates organizational abilities, so we have decided to forego our participation in the event, said McCains campaign manager Terry Nelson.
Nelson pointed out that McCain has built a solid organization in Iowa and intends to win the states caucuses.
Giulianis camp had announced earlier that the current GOP frontrunner would skip the August straw poll to focus resources on the January caucuses.
Ping of interest.
I would actually like to see the Republican nominee, whoever it is, be someone who did not campaign in Iowa. I’m tired of the ethanol lobby picking our presidents. As far as traditions go, this one is both bogus and sad.
Wanna bet McCain or Giuliani win the Iowa Caucus?
And you are both ugly and rude.
Bingo - the Iowa straw poll is a joke - always has been.
I think you have described it well - I might add that it’s a competition for the campaign with the most buses, etc.
Straw polls are silly in the end.
Right now, Romney may win the straw poll by default.
Giuliani doesn’t play well in fly-over country. He should stay in Iowa to get a measure of how much work his has to do in fly-over country.
McCain tanked, per Frank Luntz, politicial analyst on Fox&Friends yesterday. Luntz’s metered group did not respond well to McCain’s response to immigration questions.
its a competition for the campaign with the most busesExactly.
Somebody has to go first. Right. But after an initial lottery, we could have a system of orderly rotation (6 primary dates, 8-9 states in each primary, rotating in turn after the initial lottery set-up, as an example). THAT would be Democracy in action.
Seems to me that Iowa has now gotten rid of McCain and Rudy but without them having to support the party and I can't blame them for that.
I believe McCain is DONE. Rudy probably still has some life--especially in the NE but his numbers are on the way down.
So this tells me Rudy has no grassroots support and McCain’s will soon be moving to camp FRed.
Good question - good observations.
History is the answer to Iowa - so many years of precedent made it a force to be dealt with.
But no more - the entire primary process is being redefined and Iowa is NOT what it once was.
The rule book does not exist right now - it’s in the process of being written.
Good or bad - that remains to be seen.
I actually see Rudy as gaining strength after about 4 weeks of tough going - he is regaining his footing. In my opinion.
Mitt is taking a lot of blows - Fred Thompson is about to get into the fight - and he will be bombarded for “not playing by the rules”.
I think (I think) it’s Rudy vs. Fred in the end - and I think Rudy wins the GOP nomination.
But - as I have said before - I supported Perot - so my vision is not 20-20.
We had an event with representatives from the campaigns Sunday and one asked how many there had not made up their minds and most hands went up.
I'm extremely plugged in politically and so far there is little firm support for anyone. That doesn't necessarily mean we're dissatisfied with the field but that we're just waiting to see what happens before we make up our minds.
Maybe they’re afraid of Dave Yepsen.
It is possible that in the future you may be correct but for this year, I think that if anything, Iowa's influence is even greater. This Straw Poll is a big deal and Rudy and McCain pulling out says a lot.
Now, if others would leave, then my opinion changes.
I doubt it.
Two rats thumbing their noses at Iowa.......
The reason Rudy and McCain are skipping out is because they are trailing to Romney in Iowa.
Conventional thinking is there are 3 winning tickets out of Iowa, and it’s 2 strikes and they’re out. So by skipping the Straw Polls they are attempting to lower the expectations for the Caucuses.
In addition, Both Rudy and McCain Camps were well aware of the all out effort by the Romney folks. I’m thinking there’s a lot of “,,,let’s sit back and watch him spend his money while we keep ours in the bank” thinking going on here. Romney has raised a lot more money than Rudy and McCain, so anything they can do to equalize the bank accounts will help to level the playing field, IMO.
That said, it’s important to remember the Iowa Polls are showing totally different results than the Nat’l Polls in both major parties. Romney is pulling away from McCain and Rudy is in third. Edwards is ahead of Obama and Hillary is trailing.
If you can maintain your objectivity, it is absolutely facinating to watch.
Yep was in my class at Iowa.
I checked Sporer's blog. http://therealsporer.blogspot.com/
I think you have it right Conservativegreatgrandma.
I highly recommend that others read a post written by FReeper 'Jeff Fuller' who is a resident of Iowa and a keen observer of Iowa politics. The post was very helpful to me to become better informed about the great significance of the Ames Straw Poll to the Iowa GOP and the following Iowa Caucus Night. I think Giuliani and McCain are finished in Iowa.
From an article published today (6/7/07) at The Politico:
An internal polling memo to Romneys senior staff, dated May 31 and provided to Playbook last night, showed the results of a survey for the campaign of 402 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, conducted from May 29 to May 31 and with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. Internal campaign polls are not considered as reliable as polls for outside organizations, even though they are often more expensive and rigorous, because the questions and results can be manipulated. But the data provide a useful window into what a particular campaign is thinking, and how it is basing its decisions.
Gov. Romney holds a significant lead on the ballot in Iowa today, standing ahead of his closest competitor by 17 points, the memo begins. He has gained 14 points in the past two months while all of the other major candidates have lost ground or remained stagnant. It is clear from the data that this movement is attributable to the campaigns strong presence in Iowathe combined effect of our advertising, the Governors travel schedule, and our superior grassroots organization.
The numbers were Romney 29 percent, Giuliani 12 percent, Fred Thompson 10 percent, Newt Gingrich 10 percent, John McCain 9 percent, Mike Huckabee 7 percent, other candidates 11 percent and undecided 12 percent. In March, the poll for Romney had showed Giuliani in first place at 24 percent, following by McCain at 17 percent and Romney at 15 percent.
Gov. Romneys ratings are extremely favorable in the state78 percent of caucus-goers have a favorable impression of him with only 10% having an unfavorable impression, the memo continues. The governors favorables have increased by 10 points over the past two months. By comparison, Giulianis favorability rating has decreased by a net of 15 points since March, and McCains has dropped by a net of 11 points. It is clear that the more voters find out about Gov. Romney, the more they like him. 72 percent of caucus-goers say what they have heard recently about the governor gave them a more favorable impression of him. By comparison, as voters become more knowledgeable about the candidates positions, we see them moving away from Giuliani and McCain.
The conventional wisdom is that however it looks now, the boycott will save McCain money he needs and could wind up being an asset since he wont be stuck defending what was likely to be a second-place finish, at best.
Politico Playbook: White flag(s), June 7, 2007
Or Brian Ross. He was in a couple of my J school classes.
It is highly unlikely McCain would come in second. Of those who have expressed opinions, Tancredo has some support.
thank you for the Jeff Fuller link. Eventho it was written with a strong Romney slant, I still found it informative.
McCain and Rudy are hoping to avoid the truth: they aren[t going to be President and Mitt Romney is currently the front runner. I’m still supporting Tancredo, but maybe the best will be a Romney-Tancredo ticket for 2008.
Thanks for the ping. As far as I can tell, this is a very big opportunity for Duncan Hunter.
Did you see Mitt at the NH dinner the other night? He was only marginally better than the two hacks who represented Brownback and McCain that spoke after him.
Interesting idea. But I won't take that bet. They could, but I think it will be someone who is actually there.
Romney would never consider Tancredo: they don’t come from the same social class.
Bookmarking "about page" for Mrs. Designer.