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McCain follows Giuliani, will skip Iowa straw poll
The Hill ^ | 06/06/2007 | Klaus Marre

Posted on 06/07/2007 4:51:02 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007

Hours after former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) announced that he would skip the Iowa straw poll, the campaign of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Wednesday that it would follow suit.

“In light of today’s news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates’ organizational abilities, so we have decided to forego our participation in the event,” said McCain’s campaign manager Terry Nelson.

Nelson pointed out that McCain has built a solid organization in Iowa and “intends to win the state’s caucuses.”

Giuliani’s camp had announced earlier that the current GOP frontrunner would skip the August straw poll to focus resources on the January caucuses.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: elections; giuliani; mccain; mittromney
Meanwhile, Romney declares early victory in Iowa over McCain and Giuliani. Mitt's got good PR, I'll give him that.
1 posted on 06/07/2007 4:51:05 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
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To: Unmarked Package; pissant; Paperdoll; AuntB; upsdriver; trisham; Kevmo

Ping of interest.


2 posted on 06/07/2007 4:51:46 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007 (Why vote for Duncan Hunter in 2008? Look at my profile.)
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

I would actually like to see the Republican nominee, whoever it is, be someone who did not campaign in Iowa. I’m tired of the ethanol lobby picking our presidents. As far as traditions go, this one is both bogus and sad.


3 posted on 06/07/2007 4:56:16 AM PDT by samtheman
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

Wanna bet McCain or Giuliani win the Iowa Caucus?


4 posted on 06/07/2007 4:59:26 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: samtheman
I’m tired of the ethanol lobby picking our presidents. As far as traditions go, this one is both bogus and sad.

Your grasp on this is what is bogus and sad.


5 posted on 06/07/2007 4:59:57 AM PDT by elizabetty (Perpetual Candidate using campaign donations for your salary - Its a good gig if you can get it.)
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To: elizabetty

And you are both ugly and rude.


6 posted on 06/07/2007 5:01:08 AM PDT by samtheman
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To: samtheman

Bingo - the Iowa straw poll is a joke - always has been.

I think you have described it well - I might add that it’s a competition for the campaign with the most buses, etc.

Straw polls are silly in the end.


7 posted on 06/07/2007 5:03:35 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

Right now, Romney may win the straw poll by default.


8 posted on 06/07/2007 5:06:06 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

Giuliani doesn’t play well in fly-over country. He should stay in Iowa to get a measure of how much work his has to do in fly-over country.

McCain tanked, per Frank Luntz, politicial analyst on Fox&Friends yesterday. Luntz’s metered group did not respond well to McCain’s response to immigration questions.


9 posted on 06/07/2007 5:07:50 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Jake The Goose; Liz; Conservativegreatgrandma; Designer
it’s a competition for the campaign with the most buses
Exactly.

Somebody has to go first. Right. But after an initial lottery, we could have a system of orderly rotation (6 primary dates, 8-9 states in each primary, rotating in turn after the initial lottery set-up, as an example). THAT would be Democracy in action.

10 posted on 06/07/2007 5:43:04 AM PDT by samtheman
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To: samtheman

Bingo


11 posted on 06/07/2007 5:44:51 AM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: samtheman

Well said.


12 posted on 06/07/2007 5:51:35 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: Jake The Goose
If the Iowa Straw Poll is such a joke why do the campaigns do everything they can to make a good showing? The Straw Poll has taken on the significance the Caucus once had--that is to get rid of some candidates.

Seems to me that Iowa has now gotten rid of McCain and Rudy but without them having to support the party and I can't blame them for that.

I believe McCain is DONE. Rudy probably still has some life--especially in the NE but his numbers are on the way down.

13 posted on 06/07/2007 5:51:48 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

So this tells me Rudy has no grassroots support and McCain’s will soon be moving to camp FRed.


14 posted on 06/07/2007 5:55:11 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (Fred 2008)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

Good question - good observations.

History is the answer to Iowa - so many years of precedent made it a force to be dealt with.

But no more - the entire primary process is being redefined and Iowa is NOT what it once was.

The rule book does not exist right now - it’s in the process of being written.

Good or bad - that remains to be seen.

I actually see Rudy as gaining strength after about 4 weeks of tough going - he is regaining his footing. In my opinion.

Mitt is taking a lot of blows - Fred Thompson is about to get into the fight - and he will be bombarded for “not playing by the rules”.

I think (I think) it’s Rudy vs. Fred in the end - and I think Rudy wins the GOP nomination.

But - as I have said before - I supported Perot - so my vision is not 20-20.


15 posted on 06/07/2007 6:00:14 AM PDT by Jake The Goose
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To: NeoCaveman
At least Rudy doesn't have ENOUGH grassroots support. I'm not saying he doesn't have any but I know of no one supporting him except for staff and the same for McCain.

We had an event with representatives from the campaigns Sunday and one asked how many there had not made up their minds and most hands went up.

I'm extremely plugged in politically and so far there is little firm support for anyone. That doesn't necessarily mean we're dissatisfied with the field but that we're just waiting to see what happens before we make up our minds.

16 posted on 06/07/2007 6:02:21 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

Maybe they’re afraid of Dave Yepsen.


17 posted on 06/07/2007 6:06:08 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: Jake The Goose
Jake, I'm going to challenge you to the winner of not having 20/20. I supported Gramm and Forbes.

It is possible that in the future you may be correct but for this year, I think that if anything, Iowa's influence is even greater. This Straw Poll is a big deal and Rudy and McCain pulling out says a lot.

Now, if others would leave, then my opinion changes.

18 posted on 06/07/2007 6:06:46 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

I doubt it.


19 posted on 06/07/2007 6:08:01 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: samtheman
And you are both ugly and rude.

I did not mean to be rude and yes, I probably am ugly.

Let me try it again.

I respectfully disagree with your statement, I’m tired of the ethanol lobby picking our presidents. As far as traditions go, this one is both bogus and sad.
This has nothing to do with ethanol, it is RETAIL POLITICS in its purist form. These small states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are where candidates go to take their case to the PEOPLE. It is about shaking hands and kissing babies but more importantly it is to show off your campaign organization.

The straw poll has little or nothing to do with ethanol and the ethanol lobby does not pick our Presidents.
20 posted on 06/07/2007 6:09:59 AM PDT by elizabetty (Perpetual Candidate using campaign donations for your salary - Its a good gig if you can get it.)
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

Two rats thumbing their noses at Iowa.......


21 posted on 06/07/2007 6:16:08 AM PDT by showme_the_Glory (ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

The reason Rudy and McCain are skipping out is because they are trailing to Romney in Iowa.

Conventional thinking is there are 3 winning tickets out of Iowa, and it’s 2 strikes and they’re out. So by skipping the Straw Polls they are attempting to lower the expectations for the Caucuses.

In addition, Both Rudy and McCain Camps were well aware of the all out effort by the Romney folks. I’m thinking there’s a lot of “,,,let’s sit back and watch him spend his money while we keep ours in the bank” thinking going on here. Romney has raised a lot more money than Rudy and McCain, so anything they can do to equalize the bank accounts will help to level the playing field, IMO.

That said, it’s important to remember the Iowa Polls are showing totally different results than the Nat’l Polls in both major parties. Romney is pulling away from McCain and Rudy is in third. Edwards is ahead of Obama and Hillary is trailing.

If you can maintain your objectivity, it is absolutely facinating to watch.


22 posted on 06/07/2007 6:23:23 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

Yep was in my class at Iowa.


23 posted on 06/07/2007 6:23:24 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Ted Sporer's blog is worth reading.

http://therealsporer.blogspot.com/

24 posted on 06/07/2007 6:24:15 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Maybe they’re afraid of Dave Yepsen.Yepsen is a Teddy Bear. Better they watch out foe Mike Glover and Charlotte Eby.
25 posted on 06/07/2007 6:26:32 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Iowa Granny
You and I have this pegged pretty much the same.

I checked Sporer's blog. http://therealsporer.blogspot.com/

26 posted on 06/07/2007 6:27:57 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma; Jake The Goose; samtheman; Ultra Sonic 007; Iowa Granny; Jeff Fuller
"If the Iowa Straw Poll is such a joke why do the campaigns do everything they can to make a good showing? The Straw Poll has taken on the significance the Caucus once had--that is to get rid of some candidates."

I think you have it right Conservativegreatgrandma.

I highly recommend that others read a post written by FReeper 'Jeff Fuller' who is a resident of Iowa and a keen observer of Iowa politics. The post was very helpful to me to become better informed about the great significance of the Ames Straw Poll to the Iowa GOP and the following Iowa Caucus Night. I think Giuliani and McCain are finished in Iowa.

Giuliani/McCain Campaigns on "Life Support" . . . They Flip-Flop on Ames Straw Poll

From an article published today (6/7/07) at The Politico:

An internal polling memo to Romney’s senior staff, dated May 31 and provided to Playbook last night, showed the results of a survey for the campaign of 402 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, conducted from May 29 to May 31 and with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. Internal campaign polls are not considered as reliable as polls for outside organizations, even though they are often more expensive and rigorous, because the questions and results can be manipulated. But the data provide a useful window into what a particular campaign is thinking, and how it is basing its decisions.

“Gov. Romney holds a significant lead on the ballot in Iowa today, standing ahead of his closest competitor by 17 points,” the memo begins. “He has gained 14 points in the past two months while all of the other major candidates have lost ground or remained stagnant. It is clear from the data that this movement is attributable to the campaign’s strong presence in Iowa—the combined effect of our advertising, the Governor’s travel schedule, and our superior grassroots organization.”

The numbers were Romney 29 percent, Giuliani 12 percent, Fred Thompson 10 percent, Newt Gingrich 10 percent, John McCain 9 percent, Mike Huckabee 7 percent, other candidates 11 percent and undecided 12 percent. In March, the poll for Romney had showed Giuliani in first place at 24 percent, following by McCain at 17 percent and Romney at 15 percent.

“Gov. Romney’s ratings are extremely favorable in the state—78 percent of caucus-goers have a favorable impression of him with only 10% having an unfavorable impression,” the memo continues. “The governor’s favorables have increased by 10 points over the past two months. By comparison, Giuliani’s favorability rating has decreased by a net of 15 points since March, and McCain’s has dropped by a net of 11 points. … It is clear that the more voters find out about Gov. Romney, the more they like him. 72 percent of caucus-goers say what they have heard recently about the governor gave them a more favorable impression of him. By comparison, as voters become more knowledgeable about the candidates’ positions, we see them moving away from Giuliani and McCain.”

The conventional wisdom is that however it looks now, the boycott will save McCain money he needs and could wind up being an asset since he won’t be stuck defending what was likely to be a second-place finish, at best.
Politico Playbook: White flag(s), June 7, 2007


27 posted on 06/07/2007 6:31:26 AM PDT by Unmarked Package (<<<< CLICK to learn more about the conservative record and platform of Governor Mitt Romney)
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To: Iowa Granny

Or Brian Ross. He was in a couple of my J school classes.


28 posted on 06/07/2007 6:55:54 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: Unmarked Package

It is highly unlikely McCain would come in second. Of those who have expressed opinions, Tancredo has some support.


29 posted on 06/07/2007 7:23:26 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Unmarked Package

thank you for the Jeff Fuller link. Eventho it was written with a strong Romney slant, I still found it informative.


30 posted on 06/07/2007 7:34:19 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

McCain and Rudy are hoping to avoid the truth: they aren[t going to be President and Mitt Romney is currently the front runner. I’m still supporting Tancredo, but maybe the best will be a Romney-Tancredo ticket for 2008.


31 posted on 06/07/2007 8:22:46 AM PDT by PeterFinn (Oberint Dum Metuant - "Let them Hate, as long as they Fear.")
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

Thanks for the ping. As far as I can tell, this is a very big opportunity for Duncan Hunter.


32 posted on 06/07/2007 9:00:44 AM PDT by Kevmo (We need to get away from the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party ~Duncan Hunter)
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To: Ultra Sonic 007

Did you see Mitt at the NH dinner the other night? He was only marginally better than the two hacks who represented Brownback and McCain that spoke after him.


33 posted on 06/07/2007 10:59:48 AM PDT by pissant
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To: samtheman
I’m tired of the ethanol lobby picking our presidents.

Amen!!! We need the Big Oil lobby and Labor Unions picking our presidents; by jingos.
34 posted on 06/07/2007 11:11:29 AM PDT by no dems ( Dear God, how much longer are you going to let Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd live?)
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
Wanna bet McCain or Giuliani win the Iowa Caucus?

Interesting idea. But I won't take that bet. They could, but I think it will be someone who is actually there.

35 posted on 06/07/2007 7:25:37 PM PDT by Designer (Protecting and defending the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.)
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To: samtheman

ETHANOL LOBBY!

lol!

THAT’S FUNNY!


36 posted on 06/07/2007 7:28:06 PM PDT by airborne (Airborne - Ranger - Vietnam veteran! Duncan Hunter for President!)
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To: PeterFinn

Romney would never consider Tancredo: they don’t come from the same social class.


37 posted on 06/07/2007 7:33:26 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Unmarked Package
That you, Mitt?

Bookmarking "about page" for Mrs. Designer.

38 posted on 06/07/2007 7:36:53 PM PDT by Designer (Protecting and defending the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.)
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