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Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
I thought Hurricane Dean had moved south from Vermont to the DC area, where it has been causing damage ever since. YEE-ARRRGH!
My dad is wheelchair bound and still lives along the coast of Mississippi, not 3 blocks from the beach. I am willing to bet he won’t leave for this one.
5pm advisory out - intensity unchanged, both windspeed and pressure. Forecast track takes it right over Jamaica as a Cat 4.
Five day track at 5pm still treats GFDL as an outlier - no real shift from the 11 AM 5 day.
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 17, 2007
...Dangerous Hurricane Dean racing westward across the Caribbean Sea... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Guadeloupe and its dependencies. The warning will likely be discontinued later tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands. The warning will likely be discontinued later tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border. A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect from Cabo Beata to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the Hurricane Warning for Martinique and Dominica has been discontinued. At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia...Saba...St. Eustatius...St. Maarten has been discontinued. Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including the Cayman Islands...should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 64.5 west or about 840 miles... 1355 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 260 miles... 415 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico. Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue through Saturday with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving well south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to reach Dean tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb...28.38 inches. Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from Dean over Puerto Rico...the Dominican Republic and Haiti with maximum amounts up to 5 inches possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Repeating the 500 PM AST position...15.0 N...64.5 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure...961 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila/Mainelli
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2007
Data from the Air Force hurricane hunter plane earlier today indicated that Dean reached 110 knots. Next plane is expected to reach Dean around 00 UTC tonight. Satellite images continue to show an eye feature...numerous cyclonically curved convective bands which are still affecting a large portion of the Lesser Antilles. The outflow is well established in all quadrants. Although the possibility of some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles could occur at any time...the shear is forecast to remain low and the ocean temperature increases westward. This would call for an overall upward intensity trend. This is supported by the SHIPS....GFDL and hwrf intensity guidance. Dean is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 18 knots. The steering pattern continues to be controlled by the high pressure system to the north of the hurricane and the mid to upper-level low over the southwestern Atlantic and Florida. This low is forecast to weaken and move westward and be replaced by a ridge. This pattern would maintain Dean over the Caribbean on a general westward track across northern Yucatan and the western Gulf of Mexico. The GFDL shows a more northwesterly track across extreme western Cuba and the central Gulf of Mexico. While this solution is outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be ruled out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track history. The official track forecast is an update of the previous one and follows the model consensus. The bottom line is that Dean is expected to be a dangerous hurricane through the next several days...and all interests in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 17/2100z 15.0n 64.5w 110 kt 12hr VT 18/0600z 15.5n 67.4w 115 kt 24hr VT 18/1800z 16.4n 70.8w 120 kt 36hr VT 19/0600z 17.3n 74.0w 125 kt 48hr VT 19/1800z 18.0n 77.0w 130 kt 72hr VT 20/1800z 20.0n 84.0w 130 kt 96hr VT 21/1800z 22.0n 90.0w 100 kt...inland 120hr VT 22/1800z 24.5n 96.0w 105 kt $$ forecaster Avila
Here is the $64 billion question as far as Dean is concerned. Will the upper low weaken? Or remain strong enough to pull Dean further northwards?
That could be, one of local forcasters here in Jacksonville said as that cut off low, moved west it would seal Dean on a southern route keeping Florida free of Dean.
I don’t see Dean hitting Florida (except for possibly some effects on the far west Panhandle, and even that seems doubtful). But the low, if it drifts into the Gulf and does not dissapate, could help “pull” Dean further north. It looks like the GFDL is believing that will be the case. I seriously, SERIOUSLY hope the GFDL is wrong. At this point, best case is a strike well to the south of Cozumel.
I'm hoping for the ridge.
You don’t rebuild it...with crime on the way up up up...seems clean up is worthless...flame away
C'mon, this is 21st Century America. You cave to the Oprahization of politics and rebuild it over and over again, instead of finding the courage to tell the 9th Ward that its time to let nature (and gravity) take their courses and turn a place 20 feet below sea level into a lake, and rebuild somewhere else on higher ground.
Right...
Well, it seems we’re out of danger down here. Godspeed to you guys downstream.
‘Tis good news. My western Great Lakes prayers to those next in the firing line.
One of our local mets in Houston is now using Max Mayfield as a consultant. (Yeah, I know, I should be watching Doc Frank instead, *oh,well*.)
Anyhoo, Max just stated that the GFDL has consistently been the most accurate predictor over the past 3 years, so he’s tending to favor it at this time.
Our met asked him if he thought Dean would be a Cat 5 at the Yucatan point and he said yes, then qualified it to a high 4, low 5.
The run MM was looking at was still taking the GFDL model up through Louisiana, while our local was saying it is now showing a landfall more to the left, closer to us in Houston. (We’d still be on the dry side, tho.)
Just reporting.
Stay south, Dean! Stay south!
I’m wondering if his fast speed is keeping that dry area in the NW quandrant from weakening him as much as it would a slower, less organized sotrm. Of course at this point he’s creating enough moisture that it would take a HUGE dry area to hurt him :(
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