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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: RDTF

Ok I feel bad for the poor scared little girl, but her parents need to be slapped upside the head. What are they teaching this child????


301 posted on 08/17/2007 3:11:13 PM PDT by brothers4thID (FDT: "Every notice that while our problems are getting bigger, our politicians are getting smaller?")
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To: NautiNurse

Damn. Per post #239, it looks like Jamaica will be devastated.


302 posted on 08/17/2007 3:11:14 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: NautiNurse

bttt


303 posted on 08/17/2007 3:25:12 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: sweet_diane

Just remember that 5 days out a LOT can change. Check out the hurricane track verification for our old, wily, friend Ivan in 2004. Notice how much the track changes before landfall.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20049.asp?feature=verification


304 posted on 08/17/2007 3:25:24 PM PDT by brothers4thID (FDT: "Every notice that while our problems are getting bigger, our politicians are getting smaller?")
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To: NautiNurse

I hope that thing finds a way to peter out before it gets where it’s going. Have you ever been on the Yucatan Peninsula? A 3 storm or above will be a major loss of life.


305 posted on 08/17/2007 3:33:55 PM PDT by sig226 (Every time I hit spell check, the fishies got all messed up. 'Bye fishies . . .)
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To: NautiNurse; Admin Moderator; Sidebar Moderator

Thanks Mods for putting this in news!


306 posted on 08/17/2007 3:34:35 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: sig226
Have you ever been on the Yucatan Peninsula?

January 2007, and same time next year.

307 posted on 08/17/2007 4:00:33 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: dirtboy

I agree. Guess I better cancel the scuba trip to Cancun eh?LOL.


308 posted on 08/17/2007 4:02:01 PM PDT by lexington minuteman 1775
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To: trillabodilla

{{{{{Hugs&Prayers}}}}}}}

Condolences to your family on your loss. :*(


309 posted on 08/17/2007 4:03:13 PM PDT by pillut48 (CJ in TX --Soccer Mom, Bible Thumper and Proud to be an American! RUN, FRED, RUN!!!)
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To: NautiNurse

Our friends at stormcarib are checking in. Pix from St Lucia and reports from the Islands here:

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/misc.shtml


310 posted on 08/17/2007 4:11:43 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: NautiNurse
http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=6948834&Call=Email&Format=HTML

Governor Blanco issues state of emergency

311 posted on 08/17/2007 4:14:44 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping that it will eat him last.”)
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To: Rte66

Nay, mexico


312 posted on 08/17/2007 4:15:45 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: All

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/divisions/press/pressreleases/PressRelease.2007-08-17.1849

http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070817/NEWS/70817040

Texas and Mississippi governors prepare.


313 posted on 08/17/2007 4:16:35 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping that it will eat him last.”)
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To: TornadoAlley3

still recovering in SA from Erin, glub glub... it will be very interesting if Dean comes ashore around CC.


314 posted on 08/17/2007 4:18:48 PM PDT by Tuxedo (This Species Has Amused Itself To Death)
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To: Hang'emAll

I’m flying into San Antonio Monday for a couple of NRA shoots in New Braunfels. My plans are to fly out on Friday morning. I hope.

Boy, did I I pick the wrong time to visit!


315 posted on 08/17/2007 4:21:58 PM PDT by airborne (Proud to be a conservative! Proud to support Duncan Hunter for President!)
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To: Tuxedo

I’ll be there on Monday.

How is it to your north? (New Braunfels)


316 posted on 08/17/2007 4:24:46 PM PDT by airborne (Proud to be a conservative! Proud to support Duncan Hunter for President!)
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To: Rte66

Thanks for posting the photos. Looks like poorly constructed roofs, & big trees didn’t make it. The big rocks in the road appear to be riprap shoved up from the shoreline by storm surge.


317 posted on 08/17/2007 4:37:05 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse; All
These may be of interest:

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS UPDATE: Popular Mechanics' big disaster-survival feature is now up on the Web.
 
"In Case of Emergency" - ICE campaign--This great idea started in the UK - The idea of entering the acronym "ICE" — "In Case of Emergency" — beside the numbers of people one wants to identify as next of kin in one's cell phone contact list was first suggested in 2004 by Bob Brotchie of the East Anglian Ambulance service. In April 2005, a National "ICE" Awareness Campaign was launched in the U.K. by mobile phone service provider Vodafone with the endorsement of Falklands War hero Simon Weston, and the movement reached critical mass in the wake of the July 7, 2005 terrorist bombings in London. The idea is now beginning to catch on in other countries, including the U.S.A. (as reported in the Washington Post).

318 posted on 08/17/2007 4:37:20 PM PDT by backhoe (-30-)
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To: TornadoAlley3
Governor Blanco issues state of emergency

Her timing is so bad, I'll bet she can't dance either.

319 posted on 08/17/2007 4:38:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

LOL...a couple of years too late. ;o) Not even running for governor...Katrina kinda cooked her goose.


320 posted on 08/17/2007 4:46:42 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: NautiNurse
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared a state of emergency Friday evening as emergency preparedness workers continued to monitor Hurricane Dean's path toward the Gulf of Mexico.

At the same time, Blanco sent a request to President Bush asking for a federal declaration that would allow federal resources to flow to the state should the storm strike any part of the Louisiana coast.

Mash here for full story

321 posted on 08/17/2007 4:51:19 PM PDT by Vermonter
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To: shield

GFDL?


322 posted on 08/17/2007 4:54:41 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: CindyDawg

We had scattered showers today, mostly just this morning and nothing over thirty minutes. I was away from the computer all day, so I have some catching up to do!


323 posted on 08/17/2007 4:54:59 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: steveegg

Us too, but that’s not the way it’s looking. Bad feelings about this one coming.:(


324 posted on 08/17/2007 4:56:18 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: All

URNT12 KNHC 172356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/23:32:00Z
B. 14 deg 52 min N
065 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb 2632 m
D. 119 kt
E. 302 deg 006 nm
F. 048 deg 130 kt
G. 309 deg 010 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 23:29:00


325 posted on 08/17/2007 4:59:05 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
Category 4
130 mph winds, 946 mb


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

326 posted on 08/17/2007 5:01:59 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

yikes!


327 posted on 08/17/2007 5:02:50 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: NautiNurse

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 130
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
MB...27.93 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


328 posted on 08/17/2007 5:03:59 PM PDT by varina davis
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To: NautiNurse

Eegads..looks like Dean’s getting ready to do the Dean Scream..


329 posted on 08/17/2007 5:04:00 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet -Fred'08)
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Prayers for all in Dean’s path.


330 posted on 08/17/2007 5:05:10 PM PDT by tiredoflaundry (Bill O'Reilly is a pinhead.)
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To: lexington minuteman 1775
I agree. Guess I better cancel the scuba trip to Cancun eh?LOL.

Naw, just take extra weights.

331 posted on 08/17/2007 5:05:27 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Rte66

332 posted on 08/17/2007 5:07:14 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: NautiNurse
Louisiana is doing squat. Opening an office and watching the weather channel. Compare that to Texas. All Blanco wants is money, sit on her booty and collect money from feds. Blame Bush etc....a repeat of 2005.
333 posted on 08/17/2007 5:08:22 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping that it will eat him last.”)
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To: shield

I know the NHC is not trying to be alarmist, but the heat potential in the Western Caribbean is as high as it was in 2005. Unless Dean careens into Cuba or God sends us some major wind shear, it’s gonna be a Cat 5 in 72-96 hours.


334 posted on 08/17/2007 5:09:32 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: Rte66

335 posted on 08/17/2007 5:10:16 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: tiredoflaundry
Prayers for all in Dean’s path.

Amen to that. Someone is gonna get hosed by this. Let's pray that Dean takes the path of least hosing.

336 posted on 08/17/2007 5:10:20 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: dirtboy

*snicker*


337 posted on 08/17/2007 5:11:37 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: tiredoflaundry
Prayers for all in Dean’s path.

I suppose that would be the Dean's List?

338 posted on 08/17/2007 5:11:59 PM PDT by Dysart
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To: TornadoAlley3
All Blanco wants is money, sit on her booty and collect money from feds. Blame Bush etc....a repeat of 2005.

Thank God that hag ain't running for re-election.

Unfortunately for Louisiana, the November elections are after the peak of this year's hurricane season.

339 posted on 08/17/2007 5:12:25 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: dirtboy

ROFL


340 posted on 08/17/2007 5:13:39 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SE Mom
Eegads..looks like Dean’s getting ready to do the Dean Scream..

We could only hope. Hurricane Dean in 2004 dissapated to Liberal Depression after the scream.

Too bad Hurricane Dean won't follow suit.

341 posted on 08/17/2007 5:14:12 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: NautiNurse

Ouch. 946???


342 posted on 08/17/2007 5:14:47 PM PDT by brothers4thID (FDT: "Every notice that while our problems are getting bigger, our politicians are getting smaller?")
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To: dirtboy

I never said it wasn’t going to be a cat 5. I’m looking at the projected tracks of NHC and Weather Underground. Everyone keeps flipping at the GFDL. Now we’ve got a leftward shift of the HWRF and especially the GFDL. Which is saying Mexico.


343 posted on 08/17/2007 5:16:35 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: brothers4thID

Well, it’s not Gilbert! Altho - I think Gilbert’s record 888 mb came very quickly after its 940 or so mb the same day.


344 posted on 08/17/2007 5:20:53 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: trillabodilla
Prayers and sympathies sent your way+

PaMom

345 posted on 08/17/2007 5:20:57 PM PDT by PennsylvaniaMom (Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean THEY aren't out to get you...)
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To: shield

I wish we were dry, we’re completely saturated at the I-45/W Mt. Houston area. I drove over Greens Bayou and it’s near full.


346 posted on 08/17/2007 5:22:45 PM PDT by RikaStrom (The number one rule of the Kama Sutra is that you both be on the same page.../Exeter 051705)
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To: RikaStrom

We’re pretty dry over here. Didn’t get near the rain in far west harris county yesterday.


347 posted on 08/17/2007 5:24:23 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: NautiNurse

Damn, but he’s spinning quick.


348 posted on 08/17/2007 5:27:24 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: shield

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2007/clark4latest.png


349 posted on 08/17/2007 5:30:16 PM PDT by tutstar (Baptist Ping list - freepmail me to get on or off.)
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To: dirtboy; nwctwx

one thing for sure it’s not going to be good for someone somewhere


350 posted on 08/17/2007 5:31:21 PM PDT by tutstar (Baptist Ping list - freepmail me to get on or off.)
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