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Skip to comments.Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Three Day Tracking Map
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Model Tracks
Storm Surge graphic
Visible Satellite Still Image
Central Florida Hurricane Center
|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
Ok I feel bad for the poor scared little girl, but her parents need to be slapped upside the head. What are they teaching this child????
Damn. Per post #239, it looks like Jamaica will be devastated.
Just remember that 5 days out a LOT can change. Check out the hurricane track verification for our old, wily, friend Ivan in 2004. Notice how much the track changes before landfall.
I hope that thing finds a way to peter out before it gets where it’s going. Have you ever been on the Yucatan Peninsula? A 3 storm or above will be a major loss of life.
Thanks Mods for putting this in news!
January 2007, and same time next year.
I agree. Guess I better cancel the scuba trip to Cancun eh?LOL.
Condolences to your family on your loss. :*(
Our friends at stormcarib are checking in. Pix from St Lucia and reports from the Islands here:
Governor Blanco issues state of emergency
Texas and Mississippi governors prepare.
still recovering in SA from Erin, glub glub... it will be very interesting if Dean comes ashore around CC.
I’m flying into San Antonio Monday for a couple of NRA shoots in New Braunfels. My plans are to fly out on Friday morning. I hope.
Boy, did I I pick the wrong time to visit!
I’ll be there on Monday.
How is it to your north? (New Braunfels)
Thanks for posting the photos. Looks like poorly constructed roofs, & big trees didn’t make it. The big rocks in the road appear to be riprap shoved up from the shoreline by storm surge.
Her timing is so bad, I'll bet she can't dance either.
LOL...a couple of years too late. ;o) Not even running for governor...Katrina kinda cooked her goose.
At the same time, Blanco sent a request to President Bush asking for a federal declaration that would allow federal resources to flow to the state should the storm strike any part of the Louisiana coast.
We had scattered showers today, mostly just this morning and nothing over thirty minutes. I was away from the computer all day, so I have some catching up to do!
Us too, but that’s not the way it’s looking. Bad feelings about this one coming.:(
URNT12 KNHC 172356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
B. 14 deg 52 min N
065 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb 2632 m
D. 119 kt
E. 302 deg 006 nm
F. 048 deg 130 kt
G. 309 deg 010 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 23:29:00
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 130
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
Eegads..looks like Dean’s getting ready to do the Dean Scream..
Prayers for all in Dean’s path.
Naw, just take extra weights.
I know the NHC is not trying to be alarmist, but the heat potential in the Western Caribbean is as high as it was in 2005. Unless Dean careens into Cuba or God sends us some major wind shear, it’s gonna be a Cat 5 in 72-96 hours.
Amen to that. Someone is gonna get hosed by this. Let's pray that Dean takes the path of least hosing.
I suppose that would be the Dean's List?
Thank God that hag ain't running for re-election.
Unfortunately for Louisiana, the November elections are after the peak of this year's hurricane season.
We could only hope. Hurricane Dean in 2004 dissapated to Liberal Depression after the scream.
Too bad Hurricane Dean won't follow suit.
I never said it wasn’t going to be a cat 5. I’m looking at the projected tracks of NHC and Weather Underground. Everyone keeps flipping at the GFDL. Now we’ve got a leftward shift of the HWRF and especially the GFDL. Which is saying Mexico.
Well, it’s not Gilbert! Altho - I think Gilbert’s record 888 mb came very quickly after its 940 or so mb the same day.
I wish we were dry, we’re completely saturated at the I-45/W Mt. Houston area. I drove over Greens Bayou and it’s near full.
We’re pretty dry over here. Didn’t get near the rain in far west harris county yesterday.
Damn, but he’s spinning quick.
one thing for sure it’s not going to be good for someone somewhere