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Skip to comments.Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Three Day Tracking Map
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Model Tracks
Storm Surge graphic
Visible Satellite Still Image
Central Florida Hurricane Center
|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
That was the 00Z run, shouldn’t there be a 1200z run out yet?
Well, *some* of the mets have a theory that ‘canes tend to want to go *towards* bodies of land on their east and *away* from bodies of land on their west. Has to do with the axis of the quadrants not being symmetrical.
That’s why some think Dean will brush Jamaica to the north, instead of head-on and some think he will go up the Yucatan Channel and avoid the peninsula to his west.
Overall, ‘canes want to go north to the pole, anyway, if left to their own devices.
Yes, the tell-tale northward turn is inevitable at some point. This particular model may be more intuitive than the others..............
Yikes—that model indicates 916 mb just prior to landfall.
Someone at WU says the 1200z run puts it in at ‘south texas’.
...Dean remains an extremely dangerous hurricane...heavy squalls spreading over Hispaniola...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including western Cuba...and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 200 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 505 miles... 815 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 175 miles... 285 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A general track between the west and west-northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane hunter plane was 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 2 to 3 inches can be expected over the Dominican Republic and Haiti with amounts up to 6 inches possible. Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.9 N...69.4 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure...930 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Avila
I an definately in the camp that it will hit in the northern 1/3rd of the current cone.
Prayers out to everyone to make the wisest choices in it's path.....
Thats a large cone area, hope it stays to the south, but, sometimes these critters get a mind of their own and defy all the models.
I wonder if that 3D animated GFDL model is experimental.
Nah, they’re individual *theories* espoused by a variety of mets. I was “just sayin’”.
That's rough. Hubby had a customer with a similar problem so she designed a pergola with a moveable awning.
We have a monster tree in front of our house and one in back..been very lucky
I didn’t know what I was looking at. I’ll have you know I’m on dial-up - I clicked the link with great trepidation.
I waited and waited and waited for the pay-off! The big gloppy glob of dog poop finally, after an excruciatingly long time, moved onto the TX coast about Matagorda - so, if that is supposed to be the GFDL model, it’s a previous one from earlier today.
LOL, no more of those for me, but thank you!
I'm a smart girl. I married the best carpenter, designer, builder etc in town. He's not an engineer on paper, but he knows his stuff. When HE wants to evacuate what HE builds, you know it's gonna be bad.
My gut says somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. No idea why, though.
My gut feeling as well and that puts me on the dirty side.
My gut says no matter what, more rain coming to San Antonio.
Man, you guys got 9 inches Wednesday! Where did you put it all? In the aquifer, I hope :)
I’m thinking this will get caught up in monsoonal flow and may drench NM and AZ, (after slamming Old Mexico and S. Texas).
Tough call, as Galveston isn't in the 5 day cone at this point. However, we know landfall ultimately trends to the right of the early predictions. Either way, the size of the storm ensures strong winds and rain well outside of where the center makes landfall.
I don’t know where it all went - but outside of passing over a formerly dry creek (Huebner, Leon, Culebra) you can hardly tell it rained. This city is well designed to channel the water away - but still some people end up dying anyway. It’s sad.
Wasn’t there an updated GFDL at 2PM EDT? Didn’t see it yet.
It’s after the storm I hate. The last time we were without power for two weeks. I have a generator now. I really think this motor home idea isn’t bad idea though.
I hope not. The ground in AZ is already saturated from Monsoons this past month. We’re watching closely.
I think Dean is going to be another Gilbert, same path and all.
Dean just got like 60% bigger and the eye went perfectly circular? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
Set the animation to 'rock'.
My gut feeling is that this is going to go into Mexico and just give us all (yes, including SA, a bunch of rain). Man (or woman) cannot live by gut alone though:’)
A terribly healthy storm.
Jamaican radar, for those interested:
AGREE! The aftermath is the worst. Is it ever hotter than after a hurricane?! Waiting in long gas lines for fuel for the generator.
I do have one of those outside showers that attaches to a faucet. Sure feels good while working long days just to get the debris out of the yard...I really hate that part.
A REMINDER NOTE FROM LAST YEAR’S THREAD:
When the power goes off, go to your panel and flip the “all house” switch to OFF.
This is to safeguard against the power company bringing your power back up when you aren’t home. If there’s damage to the incoming source it could be dangerous.
When they brought my power up after Ivan, I was home and noticed the lights were VERY bright...and surging. The power guys came and shut it down immediately. I had 220 running throughout my house. Fried the TV, microwave, and sprinkler control box. Could’ve burned down the house if I hadn’t been home! (The pole on the roof where the service comes in was damaged.)
So turn off the main until you can manually turn it back on with you there to monitor it.
Keep generators outside too.
We were buying ice right off the truck too. We waited in line for the truck and handed our dollar to the clerk. It never even made it into the grocery store. One bag per person.
Seems like an obvious point, but be sure to have some old fashioned cash $$$ on hand. If power is out, so are ATM’s and credit card terminals.
If it keeps on that path it looks as if it will go north of Jamaica and possibly right on between cuba and the yucatan into the gulf without slowing down.
Many think the 5oclock models will have it up to Cat 5.
Damn, look at the eye and CDO on that beast.
Lot’s of change and ones too. Bigger bills can be a problem.
I wonder if it has the Rovian pentagram cloud pattern in the eye yet? That’s how you can tell it is being steered by HAARP. /sarc
Air Canada is running an extra section to Montego Bay as AC7060, a 767-200.
Looks like they are moving to get the Canadians out.
American has canceled 4 flights to Santo Domingo for this afternoon,
USAirways and Jet Blue have both canceled as well...
Looks like the next recon will be treated to stadium effect in the eye. Amazing graphic.
Thanks for that link. That is one mean Dean.
This thing needs to go a little N and miss Jamaica. Otherwise it could make NOLA look like Disneyland.
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