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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: CindyDawg

Stores and gas stations are very busy with people preping for the storm. I avoided the crowds by going to a Dollar store for supplies.


851 posted on 08/18/2007 1:18:31 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: NautiNurse

bttt


852 posted on 08/18/2007 1:28:43 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: sweet_diane
I don’t care how smart you think you are or what kind of carpenter you married. but it is completely possible to build a home that can withstand a major hurricane (I did) and live relatively comfortably. It is a matter of good design, planning and execution. It takes budgeting, also.

I frankly would not live in a place in a home that mandated evacuation. Hurricane evactuation around here is a joke - unless you leave days early and then 99% of the time you leave wrong.

853 posted on 08/18/2007 1:36:40 PM PDT by Sunnyflorida ((Elections Matter)
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To: All

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 18, 2007

...Outer fringes of Hurricane Dean lashing the South Coast of
Hispaniola...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect along the South
Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to
Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the
northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning
is also effect for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey
eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including
western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 16.1 north...longitude 70.2 west or about 455 miles...
735 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 165 miles...
270 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will continue to
move south of Hispaniola today and will be near Jamaica on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km. Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic has been
experiencing tropical storm force wind gusts for the past several
hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb...27.46 inches.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible. Amounts
of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Haiti with maximum
totals of 10 inches possible. The remainder of the Dominican
Republic...Haiti and eastern Cuba...could receive 2 to 4 inches of
rain with maximum amounts up to 7 inches possible. Additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with
isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean in the Hurricane Warning area.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...16.1 N...70.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure...930 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila


854 posted on 08/18/2007 1:39:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: txflake
This thing needs to go a little N and miss Jamaica. Otherwise it could make NOLA look like Disneyland.

That is true. I wonder if Texas has a bunch of people evacuating if the NOLA evacuees will head back to LA. HMMMMM!!!!

855 posted on 08/18/2007 1:47:08 PM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (The measure of a country is not how many people are wanting to come in, but how many want to leave.)
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To: All

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_04.gif


856 posted on 08/18/2007 1:49:51 PM PDT by harwood (Ann Coulter: Future SCOTUS nominee!)
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To: RGVTx

What did you buy?


857 posted on 08/18/2007 2:00:44 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

One would want to consider whether their RV’s gas tank would run a generator on full tilt for two weeks. Anyway that’s what we’ll be considering if we come on down and the power is out.


858 posted on 08/18/2007 2:18:42 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: prairiebreeze

Rule of thumb for larger RV generators is a gallon per hour to run them. Also, factor in that the generator supply line is usually restricted from drawing fuel from the bottom 1/4 of the vehicle tank (to prevent the RV from running out of engine fuel).

So, if you had a full 100 gallon tank, that means ~75 gallons available for the generator, at 1gal/hour = approx 3 days of continuous run time.


859 posted on 08/18/2007 2:23:01 PM PDT by Vermonter
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To: NautiNurse
Caution large download
860 posted on 08/18/2007 2:24:25 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Vermonter

Yes I remember that about the bottom 1/4 of the tank. Thanks for the other info.


861 posted on 08/18/2007 2:25:43 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: RGVTx
Lowes up here had moved the hurricane prep items to the front of the store and also moved the prices up, too.

FYI for Vally-ites, water is already disappearing from Walmart. If you need it, get it now.

862 posted on 08/18/2007 2:46:23 PM PDT by Pebcak
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To: Pebcak

I’m going at midnight.


863 posted on 08/18/2007 2:56:43 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg; RGVTx
You’re probably going to get it a lot worse than we are, if it comes this way. We’ll hold you and your family in our Prayers. RVGTx also.

The infamous storm dog stopped running in and out when Erin turned north. I’ll ping you guys when and if she starts again.

Midnight shopping is a darned good idea!

864 posted on 08/18/2007 3:03:24 PM PDT by Pebcak
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To: LiveFreeOrDie2001

True; the more it tracks north, the more likely the low may catch it, so it does bear watching. But, of the hurricanes that have tracked in its area, it has historically either been Mexico or a recurve way northeast toward Florida, so we will see what actually does transpire.


865 posted on 08/18/2007 3:05:32 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Dick Cheney should have gone hunting with Hillary." -- Yakov Smirnoff)
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To: CindyDawg

Batteries, canned chicken, ham, and tuna. Bottled water and soft drinks. Some of the dollar stores are like mini grocery stores.


866 posted on 08/18/2007 3:06:11 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: Pebcak; CindyDawg

Hubby is at McCoys buying plywood for clients. His list of homes to board up is getting longer. McCoys said plywood is selling fast. They will get more plywood stocked by Monday but the price will be higher than today.

Thanks for your prayers. Sending my prayers to all in the path of this storm.

I’ll be here to report on conditions as the storm approaches. I’ve got wireless and wireless mobile, so hopefully, I’ll be able to stay online. Motorhome is ready for evac. Hope we don’t have to leave!

Glad Emily is getting some rest before Dean winds her up again...lol!


867 posted on 08/18/2007 3:13:44 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: Red Badger

CLP5 is not really a computer model in the same way that the others on that list are. It is more an aggregation of historical storm tracks. It’s very unlikely Dean could make that sort of movement - there’s a big honkin’ high pressure squatting over the southeast that won’t allow that movement. It’s sort of a baseline for measuring how good a computer model is, because generally the CLP5 is quite poor. I wouldn’t put any weight on it at all.


868 posted on 08/18/2007 3:16:02 PM PDT by mjwise
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To: SE Mom

Nope, finally landfall will be northeastern Mexico...


869 posted on 08/18/2007 3:17:26 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: mjwise

It looks like it made a slight turn west now....straight for Jamaica.


870 posted on 08/18/2007 3:21:01 PM PDT by I got the rope
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To: Pebcak

Thanks. Even on a regular Sat, I stay away from that place. I think this is tax free day too.


871 posted on 08/18/2007 3:24:05 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: RGVTx

Mine went grumbling earlier to McCoys. He’s also one of those “fix anything” guys. Gets him in trouble every year. We cut boards and then he uses them for something else during the year.


872 posted on 08/18/2007 3:25:46 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: RGVTx

I might check it out. I have plenty of food but I’m sure I can find something I didn’t know I needed:’)


873 posted on 08/18/2007 3:27:31 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: NautiNurse
You are very good at keeping folks abreast of the Oceans Storms. Folks should heed the dissemination of information which you gather, and warnings which follow. (esp a cat 4 or ^). :^)
874 posted on 08/18/2007 3:29:53 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: RGVTx
I lost internet the last time we had a tropical storm. This year if we get visited, I’ll call my sister and maybe she will post for me.
875 posted on 08/18/2007 3:32:22 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

A moose bit my sister once.


876 posted on 08/18/2007 3:39:18 PM PDT by ichabod1 ("Liberals read Karl Marx. Conservatives UNDERSTAND Karl Marx." Ronald Reagan)
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To: CindyDawg

Our plywood is marked for each window and kept stored and ready. Makes it easier and faster to board our home. It’s all the other homes he has to board that becomes worrisome. He just returned with 20 sheets of plywood for clients’ homes.


877 posted on 08/18/2007 3:42:10 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: eyedigress

Thanks for your kind thoughts. Much appreciated.


878 posted on 08/18/2007 3:46:42 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: CindyDawg

It’s comforting to hear what’s going on around me during these hurricanes. Tell your sis I’d appreciate her assisting you with reports should you lose your internet.


879 posted on 08/18/2007 3:47:15 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: Timeout
I had 220 running throughout my house. Fried the TV...

Had that happen after Hugo too. Hugo got the downstairs kitchen appliances. Crews borrowed from Atlanta got the upstairs kitchen appliances.
880 posted on 08/18/2007 3:52:50 PM PDT by smug (Free Ramos and Compean:)
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To: RGVTx; CindyDawg
I’ll hold the fort up here, as long as Verizon stays up, and post when the crazed canine says ‘Yay’ or ‘Nay.’

Don’t forget to buy paper plates.

881 posted on 08/18/2007 4:05:22 PM PDT by Pebcak
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To: RGVTx

Mine gets cut and marked too:’)


882 posted on 08/18/2007 4:05:45 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: NautiNurse; All
Image and video hosting by TinyPic HEADING >>> Now Due West,,,Turned or Wobble ??
883 posted on 08/18/2007 4:12:21 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

Ter-wobble.


884 posted on 08/18/2007 4:14:46 PM PDT by Pebcak
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68
It did seem to shift or wobble to a more northerly track earlier. This bother me until I saw an overlay on a WX site that showed the shift was back to the forecast track.

May have even gotten a new eyeball when it went under Puerto Rico. :)

885 posted on 08/18/2007 4:16:35 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SouthTexas

bother=bothered


886 posted on 08/18/2007 4:17:04 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: All
Jamaican radio: All persons living in Shantytown should begin evacuating NOW

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

887 posted on 08/18/2007 4:17:54 PM PDT by harwood (Ann Coulter: Future SCOTUS nominee!)
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To: harwood

Amazing coverage of all of this at this site

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15

Meteorologists and others...lot of commentary and information from Jamaica.


888 posted on 08/18/2007 4:22:59 PM PDT by silentknight
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To: RGVTx

how do you get the “wireless mobile”????


889 posted on 08/18/2007 4:26:30 PM PDT by DrewsMum (what????????)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68; NautiNurse

Look at the size of that...very graphic. And a perfectly formed eye. Thanks for posting.


890 posted on 08/18/2007 4:28:50 PM PDT by Dysart
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To: RGVTx

We have been thinking about going wireless.


891 posted on 08/18/2007 4:30:15 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

Should find out this is a cat 5 this evening. Hispaniola (and air coming off the mountains) seems to be affecting very minimally if at all so far.


892 posted on 08/18/2007 4:30:50 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: SouthTexas; Pebcak; All

Lat~16 Lon~71 Now,,,we’ll see how long this lasts...

Still Due West...


893 posted on 08/18/2007 4:32:05 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: NautiNurse
Boy, Dean is one bad lookin' cane.


894 posted on 08/18/2007 4:36:49 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: Timeout
Hey Timeout.

"So turn off the main until you can manually turn it back on with you there to monitor it."

Also, if you evacuate, turn of the 'city' water at the street before you leave.

895 posted on 08/18/2007 4:38:12 PM PDT by blam (Secure the border and enforce the law)
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To: Red Badger

It’s seems that one of these tracks always heads for Mobile at some point.


896 posted on 08/18/2007 4:39:32 PM PDT by blam (Secure the border and enforce the law)
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To: All
GDFL 18Z run now in agreement with other models; Mexico landfall

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081812-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

897 posted on 08/18/2007 4:39:48 PM PDT by harwood (Ann Coulter: Future SCOTUS nominee!)
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To: shield
6 Image IR Loop Grab, ending 2245z 8/18
898 posted on 08/18/2007 4:39:52 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx; Dysart; All

I keep hearing that there no winds aloft and nothing much
to steer it at this point,,,CAT-5 soon...


899 posted on 08/18/2007 4:42:27 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: harwood

not sure if we in Texas can breathe easier yet...


900 posted on 08/18/2007 4:42:55 PM PDT by Tuxedo (This Species Has Amused Itself To Death)
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