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Skip to comments.Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Three Day Tracking Map
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Model Tracks
Storm Surge graphic
Visible Satellite Still Image
Central Florida Hurricane Center
|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
Stores and gas stations are very busy with people preping for the storm. I avoided the crowds by going to a Dollar store for supplies.
I frankly would not live in a place in a home that mandated evacuation. Hurricane evactuation around here is a joke - unless you leave days early and then 99% of the time you leave wrong.
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 18, 2007
...Outer fringes of Hurricane Dean lashing the South Coast of
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect along the South
Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to
Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the
northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning
is also effect for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey
eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including
western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 16.1 north...longitude 70.2 west or about 455 miles...
735 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 165 miles...
270 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will continue to
move south of Hispaniola today and will be near Jamaica on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km. Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic has been
experiencing tropical storm force wind gusts for the past several
Estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible. Amounts
of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Haiti with maximum
totals of 10 inches possible. The remainder of the Dominican
Republic...Haiti and eastern Cuba...could receive 2 to 4 inches of
rain with maximum amounts up to 7 inches possible. Additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with
isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean in the Hurricane Warning area.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...16.1 N...70.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure...930 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
That is true. I wonder if Texas has a bunch of people evacuating if the NOLA evacuees will head back to LA. HMMMMM!!!!
What did you buy?
One would want to consider whether their RV’s gas tank would run a generator on full tilt for two weeks. Anyway that’s what we’ll be considering if we come on down and the power is out.
Rule of thumb for larger RV generators is a gallon per hour to run them. Also, factor in that the generator supply line is usually restricted from drawing fuel from the bottom 1/4 of the vehicle tank (to prevent the RV from running out of engine fuel).
So, if you had a full 100 gallon tank, that means ~75 gallons available for the generator, at 1gal/hour = approx 3 days of continuous run time.
Yes I remember that about the bottom 1/4 of the tank. Thanks for the other info.
FYI for Vally-ites, water is already disappearing from Walmart. If you need it, get it now.
I’m going at midnight.
The infamous storm dog stopped running in and out when Erin turned north. I’ll ping you guys when and if she starts again.
Midnight shopping is a darned good idea!
True; the more it tracks north, the more likely the low may catch it, so it does bear watching. But, of the hurricanes that have tracked in its area, it has historically either been Mexico or a recurve way northeast toward Florida, so we will see what actually does transpire.
Batteries, canned chicken, ham, and tuna. Bottled water and soft drinks. Some of the dollar stores are like mini grocery stores.
Hubby is at McCoys buying plywood for clients. His list of homes to board up is getting longer. McCoys said plywood is selling fast. They will get more plywood stocked by Monday but the price will be higher than today.
Thanks for your prayers. Sending my prayers to all in the path of this storm.
I’ll be here to report on conditions as the storm approaches. I’ve got wireless and wireless mobile, so hopefully, I’ll be able to stay online. Motorhome is ready for evac. Hope we don’t have to leave!
Glad Emily is getting some rest before Dean winds her up again...lol!
CLP5 is not really a computer model in the same way that the others on that list are. It is more an aggregation of historical storm tracks. It’s very unlikely Dean could make that sort of movement - there’s a big honkin’ high pressure squatting over the southeast that won’t allow that movement. It’s sort of a baseline for measuring how good a computer model is, because generally the CLP5 is quite poor. I wouldn’t put any weight on it at all.
Nope, finally landfall will be northeastern Mexico...
It looks like it made a slight turn west now....straight for Jamaica.
Thanks. Even on a regular Sat, I stay away from that place. I think this is tax free day too.
Mine went grumbling earlier to McCoys. He’s also one of those “fix anything” guys. Gets him in trouble every year. We cut boards and then he uses them for something else during the year.
I might check it out. I have plenty of food but I’m sure I can find something I didn’t know I needed:’)
A moose bit my sister once.
Our plywood is marked for each window and kept stored and ready. Makes it easier and faster to board our home. It’s all the other homes he has to board that becomes worrisome. He just returned with 20 sheets of plywood for clients’ homes.
Thanks for your kind thoughts. Much appreciated.
It’s comforting to hear what’s going on around me during these hurricanes. Tell your sis I’d appreciate her assisting you with reports should you lose your internet.
Don’t forget to buy paper plates.
Mine gets cut and marked too:’)
May have even gotten a new eyeball when it went under Puerto Rico. :)
Amazing coverage of all of this at this site
Meteorologists and others...lot of commentary and information from Jamaica.
how do you get the “wireless mobile”????
Look at the size of that...very graphic. And a perfectly formed eye. Thanks for posting.
We have been thinking about going wireless.
Should find out this is a cat 5 this evening. Hispaniola (and air coming off the mountains) seems to be affecting very minimally if at all so far.
Lat~16 Lon~71 Now,,,we’ll see how long this lasts...
Still Due West...
"So turn off the main until you can manually turn it back on with you there to monitor it."
Also, if you evacuate, turn of the 'city' water at the street before you leave.
It’s seems that one of these tracks always heads for Mobile at some point.
I keep hearing that there no winds aloft and nothing much
to steer it at this point,,,CAT-5 soon...
not sure if we in Texas can breathe easier yet...