Skip to comments.Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )
Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.
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|Category||Wind Speed||Barometric Pressure||Storm Surge||Damage Potential|
|< 39 mph
< 34 kts
|39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
|74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
|28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
|4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
|Minimal damage to vegetation|
|96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
|28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
|6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
|Moderate damage to houses|
|111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
|27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
|9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
|Extensive damage to small buildings|
|131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
|27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
|13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
|Extreme structural damage|
|Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
|Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
|Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
|Catastrophic building failures possible|
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2007
a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported 77 kt winds at a flight
level of 7500 ft...and surface winds around 65 kt on the stepped
frequency microwave radiometer. The aircraft also reported that a
central pressure of 993 mb and a 30 N mi wide eye. Based on this...
Felix has been upgraded to a hurricane. The initial intensity is
65 kt for this advisory...and it is possible this could be
Felix has moved more westward for the past few hours...and the
initial motion is 275/16. Other than that...there is little change
in the track forecast philosophy. A deep-layer ridge north of the
hurricane should continue building westward through 72 hr...which
should keep Felix on a course toward the west-northwest or west.
The model guidance is in good agreement through this time. After
72 hr...the large-scale models somewhat disagree on the strength of
the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and troughing over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to call for a more westward motion
toward southern Yucatan or Central America...and the GFDL has made
a southward shift to join them. On the other hand...the NOGAPS
calls for a northwestward motion across the northeastern corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula...with the UKMET and GFDN being somewhat to
the south of that. The new forecast track is between these
extremes in best agreement with the consensus models and the FSU
superensemble. It is a little south of the previous track through
72 hr due to the initial position and motion...and a little to the
north of the previous track after 96 hr.
Felix currently has fair to good outflow in all quadrants...and the
large-scale models agree that favorable upper-level winds should
continue through the forecast period. Thus...there are no obvious
reasons that Felix should not steadily intensify until it
approaches Central America...and the intensity forecast calls for
that in agreement with the SHIPS and experimental lge models. The
rapid intensity index attached to the SHIPS model continues to call
for a 30-40 percent chance of rapid intensification...so it would
not be surprising if Felix was stronger than forecast by 72 hr.
The intensity forecast after 72 hr may be dependent on a
combination of land interaction and eyewall replacement cycles...
both of which are uncertain at this time. However...present
indications are that Felix will be a major hurricane over the
western Caribbean Sea until it makes landfall.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 02/0300z 12.7n 66.9w 65 kt
12hr VT 02/1200z 13.2n 69.6w 75 kt
24hr VT 03/0000z 14.0n 73.2w 85 kt
36hr VT 03/1200z 14.7n 76.6w 90 kt
48hr VT 04/0000z 15.4n 79.7w 100 kt
72hr VT 05/0000z 16.5n 84.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 06/0000z 18.0n 88.5w 110 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0000z 20.5n 92.5w 65 kt
Hopefully he won’t have a bag of tricks!
You’ll laugh so much your sides will ache, your heart will go pitta pat, watching felix..the wonderful cat!
I don’t like cats. Maybe he will go chase monkeys.
It has rained (hard) here just about every afternoon for the last week or so. It just keeps rolling in from the Gulf.
2004 was not a good year even in central Florida.
Gosh, I was a day late and a dollar short! Oh well, alls well that ends well!
I'll never be able to mow.
Some hurricane namers were probably patting themselves on the back yesterday for picking Felix, a safe name that people couldn’t turn in to something funny.
At least they didn’t pick Fritz the Cat.
I kind of like monkeys!
Instead, we are faced with ransom motions for each line, every line coming out in a different direction from computer models based on the same inputs.
Felix will have to continue without me tonight.
We have been chasing an unusual number of ‘paper wasps’
they seem desperate to find a shelter. It seems very unusual. Are you seeing anything like that down there?
Nice chart — gives me the shivers just looking at it.
HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
330 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM THE UNITED
STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE FELIX HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...MAKING FELIX A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
And there's one in front of it hitting Acapulco.
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2007
...Felix strengthens to a category two hurricane as its center
passes just north of Bonaire...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 12.8 north...longitude 68.7 west or about 400 miles...
645 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic...and about 85 miles...135 km...east-northeast of Aruba.
Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center of Felix will pass very near to the north
of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao during the next few hours...and
into the open waters of the central Caribbean Sea later today and
Data from a Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast...and Felix could become a
major hurricane during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
plane was 984 mb...29.06 inches.
Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches...with possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches...over
the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
Repeating the 500 am AST position...12.8 N...68.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...984 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
Movement toward...west near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...984 mb.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> -
Hurricane Dean was the speedy one at 20+ mph. Felix is moving at a good pace too.
Thanks for the pings —
I am currently in Roatan Honduras at CoCoview Resort...I will keep all Freepers posted when internet is up as to what is happening here. I have a digital camera as well.
This looks like bad news from the island’s perspective.
I hear you about the stillness. It's weird. I have palm trees all around my office and these black clouds roll in and not a leaf is blowing.
Felix sure is growing at a good clip, isn’t he?
Are you planning to stay there through the storm?
Statement as of 8:00 am AST on September 02, 2007
...Felix passing north of Curacao... A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica. Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 am AST...1200z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 13.0 north... longitude 69.3 west or about 380 miles...615 km... south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic...and about 60 miles...95 km... northeast of Aruba. Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and a west-northwestward or westward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this track the center of Felix will be passing just north of Aruba during the next few hours...and into the open waters of the central Caribbean Sea later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is forecast...and Felix could become a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane just reported a minimum central pressure of 981 mb...28.97 inches. Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches...with possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches...over the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao. Repeating the 800 am AST position...13.0 N...69.3 W. Movement toward...west-northwest 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure...981 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Somebody better take his food away :-)
One at a time, PLEASE!
” One at a time, PLEASE! “
That brings up a procedural question —
If that ‘disturbance’ following close on Felix’s heels develops into something, will this become a multi-storm thread, or will it get its own thread, making us bounce back-and-forth??
(enquiring - translation: idle - minds want to know..) ;~)
” Yes “
We managed to make it through 2005 with 28 tropical systems, including five major hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, one at a time.
Take care antivenom.
I’m trying to catch up (were you up all night?)
when does it look like it will pass over Roatan?
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Glad no South Florida hurricanes so far this season. Only problem is every time a serious one hits Mexico the US gets another 250,000 illegals, ugg.
Keep up the great work NN!
Has Blanco declared a state of emergency yet?