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Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )
NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: felix; tropical; tsfelix
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Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2007

a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported 77 kt winds at a flight
level of 7500 ft...and surface winds around 65 kt on the stepped
frequency microwave radiometer. The aircraft also reported that a
central pressure of 993 mb and a 30 N mi wide eye. Based on this...
Felix has been upgraded to a hurricane. The initial intensity is
65 kt for this advisory...and it is possible this could be
conservative.

Felix has moved more westward for the past few hours...and the
initial motion is 275/16. Other than that...there is little change
in the track forecast philosophy. A deep-layer ridge north of the
hurricane should continue building westward through 72 hr...which
should keep Felix on a course toward the west-northwest or west.
The model guidance is in good agreement through this time. After
72 hr...the large-scale models somewhat disagree on the strength of
the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and troughing over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to call for a more westward motion
toward southern Yucatan or Central America...and the GFDL has made
a southward shift to join them. On the other hand...the NOGAPS
calls for a northwestward motion across the northeastern corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula...with the UKMET and GFDN being somewhat to
the south of that. The new forecast track is between these
extremes in best agreement with the consensus models and the FSU
superensemble. It is a little south of the previous track through
72 hr due to the initial position and motion...and a little to the
north of the previous track after 96 hr.

Felix currently has fair to good outflow in all quadrants...and the
large-scale models agree that favorable upper-level winds should
continue through the forecast period. Thus...there are no obvious
reasons that Felix should not steadily intensify until it
approaches Central America...and the intensity forecast calls for
that in agreement with the SHIPS and experimental lge models. The
rapid intensity index attached to the SHIPS model continues to call
for a 30-40 percent chance of rapid intensification...so it would
not be surprising if Felix was stronger than forecast by 72 hr.
The intensity forecast after 72 hr may be dependent on a
combination of land interaction and eyewall replacement cycles...
both of which are uncertain at this time. However...present
indications are that Felix will be a major hurricane over the
western Caribbean Sea until it makes landfall.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/0300z 12.7n 66.9w 65 kt
12hr VT 02/1200z 13.2n 69.6w 75 kt
24hr VT 03/0000z 14.0n 73.2w 85 kt
36hr VT 03/1200z 14.7n 76.6w 90 kt
48hr VT 04/0000z 15.4n 79.7w 100 kt
72hr VT 05/0000z 16.5n 84.5w 110 kt
96hr VT 06/0000z 18.0n 88.5w 110 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0000z 20.5n 92.5w 65 kt

$$
forecaster Beven


151 posted on 09/01/2007 8:12:05 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: CindyDawg

Hopefully he won’t have a bag of tricks!
susie


152 posted on 09/01/2007 8:14:24 PM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: I still care

You’ll laugh so much your sides will ache, your heart will go pitta pat, watching felix..the wonderful cat!
susie


153 posted on 09/01/2007 8:15:27 PM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: brytlea

I don’t like cats. Maybe he will go chase monkeys.


154 posted on 09/01/2007 8:16:43 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: floriduh voter

http://www.felixthecat.com/history2.htm

susie


155 posted on 09/01/2007 8:18:18 PM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: SouthTexas

It has rained (hard) here just about every afternoon for the last week or so. It just keeps rolling in from the Gulf.


156 posted on 09/01/2007 8:18:18 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: TheLion; NautiNurse
"In 2004, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne made landfall within 5 miles of the same location (Stuart FL)."

2004 was not a good year even in central Florida.

157 posted on 09/01/2007 8:19:31 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (A person who does not want the best for America)
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To: NautiNurse

Gosh, I was a day late and a dollar short! Oh well, alls well that ends well!
susie


158 posted on 09/01/2007 8:19:32 PM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: CindyDawg
Same here, except today, but it's making up for it tonight.

I'll never be able to mow.

159 posted on 09/01/2007 8:23:33 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: brytlea

Some hurricane namers were probably patting themselves on the back yesterday for picking Felix, a safe name that people couldn’t turn in to something funny.


160 posted on 09/01/2007 8:23:43 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

At least they didn’t pick Fritz the Cat.


161 posted on 09/01/2007 8:27:07 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: CindyDawg

I kind of like monkeys!
susie


162 posted on 09/01/2007 8:57:41 PM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: CindyDawg

ROFL!


163 posted on 09/01/2007 8:58:21 PM PDT by brytlea (amnesty--an act of clemency by an authority by which pardon is granted esp. to a group of individual)
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To: CindyDawg
The west side:


164 posted on 09/01/2007 8:58:33 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse

bttt


165 posted on 09/01/2007 9:01:41 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: SouthTexas; xcamel; AFPhys; neverdem
Looking at the various trend lines for the (future) track reminds me of how scattered and random the predictions for AGW temperature trends are over the next 200 years: This is a simple 5 day prediction of hurricanes we have been watching since the Spaniards came to Florida (600 years of storm tracks!) and we STILL cannot tell what way a simple low pressure center will curve in the next five days!

Instead, we are faced with ransom motions for each line, every line coming out in a different direction from computer models based on the same inputs.

166 posted on 09/01/2007 9:08:42 PM PDT by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla

167 posted on 09/01/2007 9:19:20 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE
As bad, or random, as it may seem, it's far better than the forecasting 30-40 years ago.

Felix will have to continue without me tonight.

168 posted on 09/01/2007 9:19:45 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: CindyDawg
Yeah, CD what is up with that? Tonight we were watching funnel clouds or something like them on the other side.
What got to us was the incredible stillness here. So unlike any year we can remember.

We have been chasing an unusual number of ‘paper wasps’
they seem desperate to find a shelter. It seems very unusual. Are you seeing anything like that down there?

169 posted on 09/01/2007 9:24:03 PM PDT by Pebcak
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To: txflake

Nice chart — gives me the shivers just looking at it.


170 posted on 09/01/2007 9:32:58 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (A person who does not want the best for America)
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To: SouthTexas

Good night!


171 posted on 09/01/2007 9:38:58 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla; CindyDawg
My favorite teenage weatherjunkie (Tazmanian) over at WU has incorporated an etch-a-sketch with his sat shots (98L)


172 posted on 09/01/2007 9:42:18 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake

HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
330 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

CORRECTED HEADER

FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM THE UNITED
STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE FELIX HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...MAKING FELIX A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


173 posted on 09/02/2007 12:47:01 AM PDT by Brent88
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To: Brent88
Is there another one right behind this Felix dude?

yitbos

174 posted on 09/02/2007 1:21:00 AM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds." -- Ayn Rand)
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To: txflake

And there's one in front of it hitting Acapulco.

yitbos

175 posted on 09/02/2007 1:33:43 AM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds." -- Ayn Rand)
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To: bruinbirdman

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2007

...Felix strengthens to a category two hurricane as its center
passes just north of Bonaire...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 12.8 north...longitude 68.7 west or about 400 miles...
645 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic...and about 85 miles...135 km...east-northeast of Aruba.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track the center of Felix will pass very near to the north
of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao during the next few hours...and
into the open waters of the central Caribbean Sea later today and
tonight.

Data from a Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast...and Felix could become a
major hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
plane was 984 mb...29.06 inches.

Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches...with possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches...over
the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

Repeating the 500 am AST position...12.8 N...68.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...984 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am AST.

$$
Forecaster Knabb


176 posted on 09/02/2007 1:49:27 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
Felix The Cat 2

Movement toward...west near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...984 mb.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> -

177 posted on 09/02/2007 1:53:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse
Bipping right along at 18mph. Is that fast? Seems the last one in that neck of the woods was moving at a fair clip.

yitbos

178 posted on 09/02/2007 2:05:01 AM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds." -- Ayn Rand)
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To: bruinbirdman

Hurricane Dean was the speedy one at 20+ mph. Felix is moving at a good pace too.


179 posted on 09/02/2007 2:14:12 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

Hiya, NN

Thanks for the pings —


180 posted on 09/02/2007 2:49:02 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (We has met the enemy, and he is us........)
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To: Uncle Ike
Netherlands Antilles/Aruba radar image:


181 posted on 09/02/2007 2:58:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

I am currently in Roatan Honduras at CoCoview Resort...I will keep all Freepers posted when internet is up as to what is happening here. I have a digital camera as well.

This looks like bad news from the island’s perspective.

AKA ~AV~


182 posted on 09/02/2007 4:21:46 AM PDT by antivenom (If you're not living on the edge, you're taking up too much damn space!)
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To: Pebcak
Are you talking about real wasps? I have a nest that just came up that I am going to have to get rid of today. Last week I had a wasp in the house.

I hear you about the stillness. It's weird. I have palm trees all around my office and these black clouds roll in and not a leaf is blowing.

183 posted on 09/02/2007 5:22:18 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: NautiNurse

Felix sure is growing at a good clip, isn’t he?


184 posted on 09/02/2007 5:53:08 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: antivenom

Are you planning to stay there through the storm?


185 posted on 09/02/2007 5:53:58 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: All
Hurricane Felix Public Advisory Number 7A

Statement as of 8:00 am AST on September 02, 2007

...Felix passing north of Curacao...
 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.
 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
 
At 800 am AST...1200z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 13.0 north...
longitude 69.3 west or about 380 miles...615 km... south of Santo
Domingo in the Dominican Republic...and about 60 miles...95 km...
northeast of Aruba.
 
Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30
km/hr...and a west-northwestward or westward motion is expected
over the next 24 hours.  On this track the center of Felix will be
passing just north of Aruba during the next few hours...and into
the open waters of the central Caribbean Sea later today and
tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Felix is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Strengthening is forecast...and Felix could become a
major hurricane during the next 24 hours.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.
 
A NOAA hurricane hunter plane just reported a minimum central
pressure of 981 mb...28.97 inches.
 
Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches...with possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches...over
the offshore islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles
islands of Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
 
Repeating the 800 am AST position...13.0 N...69.3 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest 18 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...981 mb.
 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

186 posted on 09/02/2007 5:54:56 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
Felix sure is growing at a good clip, isn’t he?

Ominous

187 posted on 09/02/2007 5:58:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

Somebody better take his food away :-)


188 posted on 09/02/2007 6:02:06 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse
Meanwhile, Henriette is looking at chewing up Baja California.

One at a time, PLEASE!

189 posted on 09/02/2007 6:07:54 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg; NautiNurse

” One at a time, PLEASE! “

That brings up a procedural question —

If that ‘disturbance’ following close on Felix’s heels develops into something, will this become a multi-storm thread, or will it get its own thread, making us bounce back-and-forth??

(enquiring - translation: idle - minds want to know..) ;~)


190 posted on 09/02/2007 6:43:44 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (We has met the enemy, and he is us........)
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To: Uncle Ike
If that ‘disturbance’ following close on Felix’s heels develops into something, will this become a multi-storm thread, or will it get its own thread, making us bounce back-and-forth??

Yes

191 posted on 09/02/2007 6:55:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

” Yes “

;~)


192 posted on 09/02/2007 6:56:24 AM PDT by Uncle Ike (We has met the enemy, and he is us........)
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To: steveegg
SoCal may get some rain out of it.
193 posted on 09/02/2007 7:00:48 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Uncle Ike

We managed to make it through 2005 with 28 tropical systems, including five major hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, one at a time.


194 posted on 09/02/2007 7:13:23 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: antivenom

yikes!


195 posted on 09/02/2007 7:18:55 AM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: antivenom

Take care antivenom.


196 posted on 09/02/2007 7:23:33 AM PDT by fatima (Baby alert,Baby Ava arrived 6-29-07 at 3 PM-she is 10 pounds:))
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To: NautiNurse

I’m trying to catch up (were you up all night?)

when does it look like it will pass over Roatan?


197 posted on 09/02/2007 7:33:52 AM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: NautiNurse

#1 Hurricane Tracking Site on the Internet

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Glad no South Florida hurricanes so far this season. Only problem is every time a serious one hits Mexico the US gets another 250,000 illegals, ugg.

Keep up the great work NN!


198 posted on 09/02/2007 7:49:53 AM PDT by flattorney (Fred Thompson for 2008 President)
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Has Blanco declared a state of emergency yet?


199 posted on 09/02/2007 8:17:45 AM PDT by burzum (None shall see me, though my battlecry may give me away -Minsc)
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To: burzum
"Has Blanco declared a state of emergency yet?"

The state of emergency shall persist until the election October 20.
200 posted on 09/02/2007 8:34:31 AM PDT by macmedic892 (I am serious. And don't call me Shirley.)
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