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Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )
NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: felix; tropical; tsfelix
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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To: steveegg; NautiNurse
Aruba webcam; hit refresh to update:
201 posted on 09/02/2007 8:49:52 AM PDT by LucyT
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To: LucyT
Aruba webcam, another view; hit refresh to update:
202 posted on 09/02/2007 8:51:16 AM PDT by LucyT
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To: LucyT
This is most likley a solid Cat 3 now based on Satellite..cloud tops cooling, well defined eye is now out, and it is growing in size
looks better each frame
203 posted on 09/02/2007 9:12:33 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: LucyT

Wtnt31 knhc 021434
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Hurricane Felix advisory number 8
Nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al062007
1100 am ast sun sep 02 2007

...Felix passing north of Aruba...

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the
Islands of aruba...bonaire...and curacao.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for jamaica.

At 11 am edt...1500 utc...the government of the cayman islands has
Issued a tropical storm watch for grand cayman.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western caribbean sea should
Closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
Inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
By your local weather office.

At 1100 am ast...1500z...the center of hurricane felix was located
Near latitude 13.2 north...longitude 70.1 west or about 50 miles...
75 km...north of aruba and about 555 miles...895 km...southeast of
Kingston jamaica.

Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
Hours. On this track the center of the hurricane will be moving
Away from the netherlands antilles and over the open waters of the
Central caribbean sea today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
Gusts. Felix is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
Scale. Strengthening is forecast and felix could become a major
Hurricane tonight or early on monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
The center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
Miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.

Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
Possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches over the netherlands
Antilles...the paraguana peninsula of northwestern venezuela and
The guajira peninsula of northern colombia.

Repeating the 1100 am ast position...13.2 n...70.1 w. Movement
Toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
Mph. Minimum central pressure...980 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
Center at 200 pm ast followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


204 posted on 09/02/2007 9:12:46 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: janetjanet998
the recon plabe should be in there in a few hour hours and will likley found CAT 3 winds...... Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 02, 2007 Felix is a well-organized hurricane with a symmetric-appearing cloud structure and strong upper-tropospheric outflow. The eye is becoming well-defined on visible images and the Curacao radar is showing a rather classic presentation...with the southern eyewall passing well north of Aruba. There have been no recent eye penetrations by hurricane hunter aircraft but based on the increasingly well-defined eye...the current intensity is adjusted...probably conservatively...to 90 kt.

The hurricane is forecast to remain in an extremely low wind shear environment and to move over waters of increasingly high oceanic heat content. Therefore I see no reason why Felix will not become a major hurricane within 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is quite similar to the logistic growth equation model...lgem... version of SHIPS and calls for Cat. 4 intensity withing 36 hours. It should be noted that the purely dynamical models have not been very bullish on the strengthening of Felix so far. The initial motion is just a smidgen to the right of previous estimates...around 285/16.

There is no important change to the track forecast reasoning for the next 2-3 days. Global model predictions show a deep layer ridge persisting to the north of Felix...which should prevent a significant northward shift of the hurricane's track over the Caribbean. There is more uncertainty in the 4 and 5 day forecast locations. The GFS shows a 500 mb trough over the central U.S. In about 5 days. This feature could erode the high over the Gulf of Mexico and result in a more northward track near the end of the forecast period. For this advisory package only a slight northward adjustment is made to the 96- and 120-hour forecasts. The current NHC track forecast is also a little slower than the previous one at 3-5 days. In any event it should be recalled that the average track errors at 4 and 5 days range from over 200 miles to nearly 300 miles respectively...so one should not be focusing on the exact track at these extended ranges. The radii of 12-ft seas over the northern semicircle have been expanded based on data from NOAA data buoy 42059. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 02/1500z 13.2n 70.1w 90 kt 12hr VT 03/0000z 13.7n 72.8w 100 kt 24hr VT 03/1200z 14.4n 76.3w 110 kt 36hr VT 04/0000z 15.1n 79.5w 120 kt 48hr VT 04/1200z 15.8n 82.7w 125 kt 72hr VT 05/1200z 17.0n 87.0w 120 kt 96hr VT 06/1200z 19.0n 90.5w 70 kt...inland 120hr VT 07/1200z 21.0n 94.0w 85 kt

205 posted on 09/02/2007 9:14:55 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

All the computer models sure have aligned for a change.


206 posted on 09/02/2007 9:20:13 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse
Than you for the last few ping(s).

I ran off to Holden Beach, NC yesterday AM. Took the little one out to the beach for a swim, tidied up the place, put away things and generally got it ready for the next few weeks.

Back on board.

207 posted on 09/02/2007 9:40:41 AM PDT by PeteB570 (Keeping and eye on the Frying Pan Shoals Buoys)
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To: All
WE have been watching an area of disturbed weather just off the GA/SC coast..the NHC center now says ot may develop CLICK FOR NEWS THREAD and updates
208 posted on 09/02/2007 10:13:40 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

Felix looks awesome...no questions its a major hurricane...the only question is it a CAT 3 or 4 now...will find out within the hour


209 posted on 09/02/2007 10:16:34 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998
Buoy 41002, a 6-meter NOMAD, is missing in action.

Here is a link to other buoys off the GA/Carolina area

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml

210 posted on 09/02/2007 10:29:48 AM PDT by PeteB570 (Keeping and eye on the Frying Pan Shoals Buoys)
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To: janetjanet998

recon just found 122kt flight level winds and a pressure of 960mb.

so looks like 125MPH surface winds

and its still getting stronger


211 posted on 09/02/2007 10:32:52 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998
That GA thing:


212 posted on 09/02/2007 10:37:27 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake

Wtnt31 knhc 021747
Tcpat1
Bulletin
Hurricane Felix intermediate advisory number 8a
Nws tpc/national hurricane center Miami fl al062007
200 pm ast sun sep 02 2007

...Felix strengthens into a major hurricane...

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for grand
Cayman. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
Conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
Hours.

At 2 pm ast...1800z...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has
Discontinued all watches and warnings for the islands of
Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean sea should
Closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
Inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
By your local weather office.

At 200 pm ast...1800z...the center of hurricane Felix was located
By an air force hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 13.4
North...longitude 71.2 west or about 490 miles...790 km...southeast
Of Kingston Jamaica.

Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
Hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph...205
Km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category three hurricane on
The Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast...
And Felix could become a category four hurricane within the next
Day or so.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
The center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
Miles...185 km.

The hurricane hunter plane reported that the minimum central
Pressure has fallen to 964 mb...28.47 inches.

Felix is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
Possible maximum isolated amounts of 6 inches over the Netherlands
Antilles...the Paraguana peninsula of northwestern Venezuela and
The Guajira peninsula of northern Colombia.

Repeating the 200 pm ast position...13.4 n...71.2 w. Movement
Toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125
Mph. Minimum central pressure...964 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


213 posted on 09/02/2007 10:56:23 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse

214 posted on 09/02/2007 10:59:25 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: SouthTexas

You and CindyDawg have about 6 days remaining to evolve some gills. Wings wouldn’t hurt, either :)


215 posted on 09/02/2007 11:05:31 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: CindyDawg
Yeah, CD, I’m talking about real wasps, not yellow jackets.
They seem to be swarming around looking for a place to shelter. I’ve not seen that one before.

One in your house? Yikes. It can’t be a coincidence. Yesterday we ‘hot shotted’ a crew that was trying to get in.

216 posted on 09/02/2007 11:05:44 AM PDT by Pebcak
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To: Pebcak

Hi Pebcak. We’re watching this one, from down here...


217 posted on 09/02/2007 11:19:33 AM PDT by prairiebreeze (PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: shield

La Ceiba is gonna get smacked


218 posted on 09/02/2007 11:26:37 AM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
Category 3 Hurricane Felix

Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure...964 mb.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

219 posted on 09/02/2007 11:29:08 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

My tracking chart only goes to 15 degrees north. I am waiting to put Felix on my hurricane tracking chart.


220 posted on 09/02/2007 11:44:11 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: Ditter

221 posted on 09/02/2007 11:45:33 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

Damn, Felix grew fast. Is that common?


222 posted on 09/02/2007 11:52:28 AM PDT by Severa (I can't take this stress anymore...quick, get me a marker to sniff....)
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To: NautiNurse
FSU run: http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/tropical.html

Could be why NHC isn't as resolved as they usually are.

223 posted on 09/02/2007 11:58:32 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake

recon just found 128 kts at flight level

so 115 kts surface 130 mph


224 posted on 09/02/2007 12:12:08 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

update 132kts just found

so 135MPH surface winds


225 posted on 09/02/2007 12:13:39 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Severa

From tropical depression to major hurricane in less than 48 hours is an unusual event.


226 posted on 09/02/2007 12:15:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: janetjanet998
I'm looking at UHMET (really beautiful animation) and Felix is looking like it maybe wants to do what the hysterical, fearmongering FSU says it will.

I was just joking yesterday when I pinged NN to the Hebert boxes but now I'm not so sure. See what 5p update is.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=crb&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goes12&overlay=off Not for Dialup

227 posted on 09/02/2007 12:16:33 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: NautiNurse

957 mb big drop

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/18:54:20Z
B. 13 deg 29 min N
071 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 95 kt
E. 268 deg 008 nm
F. 356 deg 114 kt
G. 268 deg 007 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 8 C/ 3060 m
J. 16 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 01 nm
P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 12
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 18:57:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
STADIUM EFFECT
AL06 2007


228 posted on 09/02/2007 12:24:18 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: SouthTexas

The gulf high pressure ridge is likely to keep it out of Texas, I think.


229 posted on 09/02/2007 12:28:22 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Old Professer

I like the way you think:’)


230 posted on 09/02/2007 12:33:36 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: janetjanet998

Tropical storm to stadium effect in 36 hours. Amazing.


231 posted on 09/02/2007 12:42:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: txflake

After this summer, we are well on the way. ;)


232 posted on 09/02/2007 1:16:02 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: Old Professer

I hope so, but all it has to do is jump through the Bay of Campeche to stir things up in the Gulf for a week.


233 posted on 09/02/2007 1:20:38 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse

bookmark


234 posted on 09/02/2007 1:25:49 PM PDT by mcshot ("Bad Wood! Bad wood needs to be replaced with good wood" Arachnophobia)
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To: txflake
FSU run: http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/tropical.html Could be why NHC isn't as resolved as they usually are.

It's the MM5, a near worthless, primitive model. NHC basically ignores it. One thing to note is it is NOT the "FSU superensemble" (a completely different model, which is not public, that NHC will sometimes mention.)

235 posted on 09/02/2007 1:29:31 PM PDT by Strategerist
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Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

...Felix continues to strengthen...now a category four hurricane...

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for Grand
Cayman. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 13.6 north...longitude 72.0 west or about 440 miles...
710 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Felix is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 956
mb...28.23 inches.

Felix is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
over the Guajira Peninsula of northern Colombia.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...13.6 N...72.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure...956 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


236 posted on 09/02/2007 1:45:05 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: Strategerist

CAT 4 140MPH winds

no change in FORECAST TRACK


237 posted on 09/02/2007 1:45:20 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Strategerist

CAT 4 140MPH winds

no change in FORECAST TRACK


238 posted on 09/02/2007 1:45:22 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
Felix The Cat 4...

Movement toward...west-northwest near 20 mph.
Maximum sustained winds...140 mph.
Minimum central pressure...956 mb.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

239 posted on 09/02/2007 1:47:42 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

That was fast! 2.25 hours between Cat 3 and Cat 4.


240 posted on 09/02/2007 1:50:36 PM PDT by Sally'sConcerns (http://www.fda.gov/emaillist.html - Class I (life threatening) recalls email alert sign-up)
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To: NautiNurse

TANKS for the ping,,,

Atlantic Floater 1 : Looks like it’s heading more northwest
on this loop(rock),,,hopefully just a wobble,,,


241 posted on 09/02/2007 1:51:57 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: NautiNurse

Wow, already a Cat 4.
I didnt expect that so soon.


242 posted on 09/02/2007 1:53:13 PM PDT by No Blue States
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To: NautiNurse

Okay, who left the bag of cat food out and open for Felix?


243 posted on 09/02/2007 1:56:38 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

eeegads that was quick!


244 posted on 09/02/2007 1:59:27 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet -Fred'08)
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To: NautiNurse

Felix is quite a small storm. Hurricane force winds only 25 mi from the center. A compact little guy. Hate to be in that 25 mile radius though.


245 posted on 09/02/2007 2:07:35 PM PDT by jsh3180
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To: steveegg; CindyDawg; SouthTexas

I think CD and ST hate getting used to the sun.

They are both out in their front yards going “Here Kitty kitty kitty - Here Kitty kitty kitty.

:-)

Seriously I’m hoping for a more westerly track.


246 posted on 09/02/2007 2:13:18 PM PDT by PeteB570 (Keeping and eye on the Frying Pan Shoals Buoys)
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To: PeteB570

Or Scat Cat! :’)


247 posted on 09/02/2007 2:19:17 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: All
Surprised nobody got to the discussion...
Hurricane Felix Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

There has been rapid strengthening of the hurricane today.  Felix
has a spectacular presentation on satellite images with a well-
defined eye embedded in a circular central dense overcast.  The
hurricane hunter crew reported a stadium effect in the eye and that
the eye diameter had shrunk to 12 N mi.  The Air Force plane also
measured a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 132 kt and...for a
system of such convective vigor...the 90 per cent ratio of surface
to flight level winds should certainly apply here.  This would
equate to peak surface winds of about 120 kt.  A GPS dropsonde in
the northern eyewall measured a surface wind of 128 kt but this is
a spot wind that is not necessarily representative of a 1-minute
average.  Thus the current intensity is set at 120 kt.  A central
pressure of 957 mb was measured by dropsonde...with 15 kt winds at
the surface.  So the minimum pressure is estimated to be slightly
lower or 956 mb.  This corresponds to a fall in central pressure at
a rate of 3.4 mb per hour over the past 7 hours or so...which is
one of the more rapid deepening rates we have observed.  Felix will
remain in a very low shear tropospheric environment and will be
passing over waters of extremely high oceanic heat content over the
next couple of days.  In addition...to exacerbate the situation...
there is a warm eddy over the central Caribbean that Felix is
projected to move over in 12 hours or so.  The official intensity
forecast could be conservative and there is certainly the potential
for US to have another category five hurricane on our hands before
all is said and done.

A swift west-northwestward motion...285/17...continues.  I have made
essentially no change to the track forecast and the reasoning
behind it.  A well-established deep layer ridge to the north of
Felix should more or less maintain the current motion for the next
day or two.  Some slowing of the forward speed is called for by day
3 as the ridge weakens.  The exact fate of Felix over the Gulf of
Mexico remains somewhat uncertain since there is some possibility
that a trough over the central U.S. Could erode the ridge more than
currently anticipated.  However it should be noted that none of the
dynamical track guidance models turn Felix significantly to the
right through 120 hours.  In fact...the latest GFDL model run has
shifted well to the south of the other guidance.  Again...because
of the uncertainties...we advise against putting too much emphasis
on the exact NHC forecast track at 4 and 5 days. 
 
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      02/2100z 13.6n  72.0w   120 kt
 12hr VT     03/0600z 14.1n  74.5w   125 kt
 24hr VT     03/1800z 14.8n  78.0w   130 kt
 36hr VT     04/0600z 15.4n  81.1w   135 kt
 48hr VT     04/1800z 16.0n  83.5w   135 kt
 72hr VT     05/1800z 17.3n  87.7w   135 kt
 96hr VT     06/1800z 19.5n  91.5w    80 kt
120hr VT     07/1800z 21.5n  95.0w    90 kt
 
$$
forecaster Pasch

248 posted on 09/02/2007 2:23:12 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: PeteB570; SouthTexas; CindyDawg

ROFL (at both sayings).


249 posted on 09/02/2007 2:24:01 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

The GFDL now has Felix in the Pacific Wed. night.


250 posted on 09/02/2007 2:29:58 PM PDT by txhurl
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