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Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )
NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: felix; tropical; tsfelix
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To: NautiNurse

TANKS for the ping,,,

Atlantic Floater 1 : Looks like it’s heading more northwest
on this loop(rock),,,hopefully just a wobble,,,


241 posted on 09/02/2007 1:51:57 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: NautiNurse

Wow, already a Cat 4.
I didnt expect that so soon.


242 posted on 09/02/2007 1:53:13 PM PDT by No Blue States
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To: NautiNurse

Okay, who left the bag of cat food out and open for Felix?


243 posted on 09/02/2007 1:56:38 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

eeegads that was quick!


244 posted on 09/02/2007 1:59:27 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet -Fred'08)
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To: NautiNurse

Felix is quite a small storm. Hurricane force winds only 25 mi from the center. A compact little guy. Hate to be in that 25 mile radius though.


245 posted on 09/02/2007 2:07:35 PM PDT by jsh3180
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To: steveegg; CindyDawg; SouthTexas

I think CD and ST hate getting used to the sun.

They are both out in their front yards going “Here Kitty kitty kitty - Here Kitty kitty kitty.

:-)

Seriously I’m hoping for a more westerly track.


246 posted on 09/02/2007 2:13:18 PM PDT by PeteB570 (Keeping and eye on the Frying Pan Shoals Buoys)
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To: PeteB570

Or Scat Cat! :’)


247 posted on 09/02/2007 2:19:17 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: All
Surprised nobody got to the discussion...
Hurricane Felix Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2007

There has been rapid strengthening of the hurricane today.  Felix
has a spectacular presentation on satellite images with a well-
defined eye embedded in a circular central dense overcast.  The
hurricane hunter crew reported a stadium effect in the eye and that
the eye diameter had shrunk to 12 N mi.  The Air Force plane also
measured a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 132 kt and...for a
system of such convective vigor...the 90 per cent ratio of surface
to flight level winds should certainly apply here.  This would
equate to peak surface winds of about 120 kt.  A GPS dropsonde in
the northern eyewall measured a surface wind of 128 kt but this is
a spot wind that is not necessarily representative of a 1-minute
average.  Thus the current intensity is set at 120 kt.  A central
pressure of 957 mb was measured by dropsonde...with 15 kt winds at
the surface.  So the minimum pressure is estimated to be slightly
lower or 956 mb.  This corresponds to a fall in central pressure at
a rate of 3.4 mb per hour over the past 7 hours or so...which is
one of the more rapid deepening rates we have observed.  Felix will
remain in a very low shear tropospheric environment and will be
passing over waters of extremely high oceanic heat content over the
next couple of days.  In addition...to exacerbate the situation...
there is a warm eddy over the central Caribbean that Felix is
projected to move over in 12 hours or so.  The official intensity
forecast could be conservative and there is certainly the potential
for US to have another category five hurricane on our hands before
all is said and done.

A swift west-northwestward motion...285/17...continues.  I have made
essentially no change to the track forecast and the reasoning
behind it.  A well-established deep layer ridge to the north of
Felix should more or less maintain the current motion for the next
day or two.  Some slowing of the forward speed is called for by day
3 as the ridge weakens.  The exact fate of Felix over the Gulf of
Mexico remains somewhat uncertain since there is some possibility
that a trough over the central U.S. Could erode the ridge more than
currently anticipated.  However it should be noted that none of the
dynamical track guidance models turn Felix significantly to the
right through 120 hours.  In fact...the latest GFDL model run has
shifted well to the south of the other guidance.  Again...because
of the uncertainties...we advise against putting too much emphasis
on the exact NHC forecast track at 4 and 5 days. 
 
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      02/2100z 13.6n  72.0w   120 kt
 12hr VT     03/0600z 14.1n  74.5w   125 kt
 24hr VT     03/1800z 14.8n  78.0w   130 kt
 36hr VT     04/0600z 15.4n  81.1w   135 kt
 48hr VT     04/1800z 16.0n  83.5w   135 kt
 72hr VT     05/1800z 17.3n  87.7w   135 kt
 96hr VT     06/1800z 19.5n  91.5w    80 kt
120hr VT     07/1800z 21.5n  95.0w    90 kt
 
$$
forecaster Pasch

248 posted on 09/02/2007 2:23:12 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: PeteB570; SouthTexas; CindyDawg

ROFL (at both sayings).


249 posted on 09/02/2007 2:24:01 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

The GFDL now has Felix in the Pacific Wed. night.


250 posted on 09/02/2007 2:29:58 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake
The GFDL now has Felix in the Pacific Wed. night.

Definitely acting like a cat chasing after Henriette.

251 posted on 09/02/2007 2:31:33 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

Heard that it`s now a Cat-4 and very close to being a Cat-5. That should make the AGW`ers very happy.


252 posted on 09/02/2007 2:49:06 PM PDT by chessplayer
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To: chessplayer
When it was a Tropical Disturbance Friday Morning, the five day outlook only had it becoming a Category 1 Storm.

When I posted about the Tropical Disturbance, there were those making fun of posting about it so early. But I was trying to let people know there might be something to affect tourists this week (September 2 - September 8)

253 posted on 09/02/2007 3:09:18 PM PDT by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: PeteB570; steveegg; CindyDawg
People down here usually walk outside and stare skyward when it starts to rain, having forgotten what it looks like.

This year, we're doing it with the sun, well we would if it would come out. :)

254 posted on 09/02/2007 3:21:59 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: chessplayer; NautiNurse
Heard that it`s now a Cat-4 and very close to being a Cat-5.

Felix has certainly reached into his 'bag of tricks'. His next 2 tricks will be to head due north, and widen his hurricane wind field to 500 miloes.

255 posted on 09/02/2007 3:32:31 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (A person who does not want the best for America)
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To: SouthTexas
A few years ago my husband and I woke up to a "boom". We thought something had exploded and had forgotten what thunder sounded like.

Nowdays..... Maybe we ought to think about taking all that pywood and building an Ark.

256 posted on 09/02/2007 3:38:15 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: chessplayer

The folks on The WeatherChannel will be absolutely salivating!


257 posted on 09/02/2007 3:40:04 PM PDT by Palladin (Satan to Fidel: "Let me light your cigar.")
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla; NautiNurse

His next 2 tricks will be to head due north, and widen his hurricane wind ...........I certainly hope not but this cat is breaking all the rules, lets just hope he doesn’t have nine lives.


258 posted on 09/02/2007 3:40:17 PM PDT by eastforker (.308 SOCOM 16, hottest brand going.2350 FPS muzzle..M.. velocity)
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To: steveegg

What happens if these winds intetact?

259 posted on 09/02/2007 3:42:53 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: steveegg

Well. The season is half over. The average number of Atlantic hurricanes is 6, with 3 major ones. Felix is the second hurricane, and the second major one.


260 posted on 09/02/2007 3:47:57 PM PDT by chessplayer
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