All the money Romney has spent and effort he has made in Iowa alone, and all he got onsite was 99 votes to Fred's 77 which Fred spent almost nothing on and barely even campaigned for, since he just got in and has spent most of the past two weeks attending fundraisers to build cash. This makes Romney look like he's a version of Duncan Hunter with a lot more cash to burn, but still no traction. That he got spanked so badly by Huckabee though is the real story. If this plays out in the primary, and Huckabee takes Iowa, and then Guiliani takes NH, Romney will be finished fast. Wouldn't surprise me with his flip flops. I'm not sure what will happen with Fred. This could be a sign of problems, or a brilliant strategy. We'll find out on primary day. Let him get his cash to where he wants it, and begin a push in ernest, and I think he will ultimately be the one, though Huckabee is surprising so far, and to be watched, if this can be believed.
I agree with everything you said 90% (minus your Thompson observations). I dont think its strategy by Thompson to have done poorly in this event, he just has not performed well. He does not have the luxury of time to be saving his cash or efforts. This primary season is going to be all but over in 3 months. It takes months to build up the kind of ground game and local organization you need to do well in these primaries. You cannot possibly expect to jump in at the last second and make it happen.
BTW, i'm playing the fantasy '08 markets at real clear politics and just made a big bet on Huckabee doing well in Iowa.
posted on 10/20/2007 8:19:46 PM PDT
(cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestu s globus, inflammare animos)
I dont think its strategy by Thompson to have done poorly in this event...
I disagree that Thompson is doing poorly overall, but I also don't think this particular third- or fourth-place finish (depending on how you count) was strategy either. What remains to be seen is how well the attendees of this event mirror evangelical voters, and overall primary voters. At this point, the information is all over the place.
I will say that if Huck takes root and actually wins one of the early primaries, that would seem to be very good news for the Giuliani camp.
posted on 10/20/2007 8:26:49 PM PDT
(I don't remember a constitutional amendment that gives you the right not to be identified-R.Giuliani)
I think you should blow a wad against Thompson. Should play big.
If you’re right that is.
posted on 10/20/2007 8:27:07 PM PDT
(265 pound Lemming with attitude for Thompson!)
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