Posted on 11/11/2007 5:24:07 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
From Sabato's Crystal Ball:
While New Jersey voters have their eye on next year's election, many wonder how much that focus should be on current Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg's approaching 84th birthday. If Lautenberg were just 20 years younger, most would hail him as a shoe-in incumbent; his strong and consistent criticism of the Bush administration's policy in Iraq, his Congressional experience, and his being a Democrat in this dark blue state would all greatly work in his favor. However, his old age has many pulling for retirement rather than re-election. In Lautenberg's favor is New Jersey's ranking as the second most expensive state to campaign in. With $2.9 million on hand and $1 million raised in the first quarter alone, Lautenberg certainly has the funds needed.
As it is still early in the race, thus far only two exploratory committees have been formed, with no Republicans officially entering the race as of yet. Strongly conservative Assemblyman Michael Doherty has formed one of these committees, but seems an unlikely candidate in this very blue state. The successful real estate developer Anne Evans Eastbrook is the only other potential Republican challenger to have formed an exploratory committee. Though Ms. Eastbrook may have the funds to contend with the big boys of New Jersey, she is a widely unknown figure among voters. Finally, it is the undecided state Assemblyman, Joe Pennacchio that seems to be Lautenberg's biggest worry. Often deemed Reagan-esque, many Republicans feel that Pennacchio's bipartisan appeal would make him very electable.
(Excerpt) Read more at politickernj.com ...
Please, your bias is showing. NJ is a rare state where Rudy would give the Hildabeast a real race and might even win the state if enough of N.Jersey went his way. South Jersey would go with Rudy all the way. This nonsense about a landslide if Rudy wins the nomination for the Dems is just silly and is not politically realistic. You may hate him but he could actually run well in the Northeast, New England, Delaware, Pa. NY, NJ, even MD., ; he is a lapsed Catholic and Md. love those pols. Now if Fred or Mitt were the nominees, all of the East would be lost but one or two NE states and that would be electorally zip for the GOP.
Please, your bias is showing. NJ is a rare state where Rudy would give the Hildabeast a real race and might even win the state if enough of N.Jersey went his way. South Jersey would go with Rudy all the way. This nonsense about a landslide if Rudy wins the nomination for the Dems is just silly and is not politically realistic. You may hate him but he could actually run well in the Northeast, New England, Delaware, Pa. NY, NJ, even MD., ; he is a lapsed Catholic and Md. love those pols. Now if Fred or Mitt were the nominees, all of the East would be lost but one or two NE states and that would be electorally zip for the GOP.
“I’ve always liked Republican blue anyway.”
Norman, you’re not the fist Freeper to complain about the political color scheme we have now.
How, pray tell, do you believe Rudy will be remotely competitive with a 3rd party Conservative in the race ? For heaven’s sake, man, Rudy is practically TIED with Hillary in many Republican states in the South (in TN, they are tied exactly, and it is stark — we will lose TN if he is the nominee with a 3rd party Conservative, while Fred will beat Hillary by at least 15%). Nominating a liberal RINO will be a singular fiasco for us at the general election.
I think God is...
look at the polls.also consider how many people on our side are saying they won’t vote for Rudy if he is the nominee and we know that they will and they are probably telling the same thng to the pollsters.
I'm surprised Lautencorpse is running for re-election. At the time the Dems "appointed" him to replace Toricelli on the ballot, I figured it was a slick move to just have him as intermin Senator and then annoint a younger, more active successor when the time was right.
It seems the only reason the Dems can get away with keeping Lautencorpse in office is that NJ GOP is as comotose as the IL GOP right now and can't elect anyone dogcatcher statewide. If a completely crooked empty suit like Bob Mernendez can be re-elected in NJ, any RAT can.
If the Dems tried running Lautencorpse in any state with a viable two-party system, he'd be toast right now.
Put up two liberals in the general election for both parties and you see how many Conservatives turn out. Hillary couldn’t ask for a better scenario.
I dunno, we have quite a few rodent morons in a lot of Republican states.
Funny, the NJ GOP hasn't had any luck recently with other "electable" RINOs. This last election, they ran Tom Kean Jr., who is a bigger name is NJ politics than Giuliani will ever be (having the name "Tom Kean" on the ballot there is like having the name "Bill Clinton" on the ballot in Arkansas), and despite having the worst RAT opponent ever, he still lost. They defeated evil scary conservative Bret Schundler in the primary to run "electable moderate" Doug Forrest for Governor. He got his butt handed to him too. When Corzine ran for the Senate, the NJ GOP put up "electable moderate" Bob Franks against him. Franks was crushed too.
The NJ GOP hasn't had any luck with electing RINOs since Christie Todd Whitman got in and left the state in shambles (following the same pattern of RINOs in Illinois, California, Ohio, Mass., etc.)
How will Rudy do better than any of the other RINOs? If I was a resident of Jersey I really wouldn't care about Rudy's "leadership" in another state.
Hey if some of the younger RAT politicians of NJ (crooked mayors and the money guy congress critter.. whose name escapes me) get of out jail in time, maybe they could be elected instead of the almost-room-temp millionaire.
I don’t care if Lautenberg was 18 years old. He is an absolute do NOTHING. Everyone dislikes him in the Senate. he has zero accomplishments. And yet they reelect him as if he is worth anything. Incredible.
Bingo.
I suppose that would be “shoo-in,” a time-worn, but descriptive, colloqualism.
“Put up two liberals in the general election for both parties and you see how many Conservatives turn out. Hillary couldn’t ask for a better scenario.”
I’m no fan of Rudy, but according to every poll I have seen, Rudy fares better against Hillary than other candidate, e.g. Fred. Somehow I doubt that hard-core conservatives in KS and SC are voting for Hillary (Besides, Rudy is tied with Fred and Romney in SC). Besides, Rudy is tied with Fred in SC.
Many conservatives will vote for Rudy because WOT, leadership and electability are the most important issues. If Hillary is elected, it takes 50 years to undo that.
Rudy attracts independents in purple states. I don’t think he can win NJ or NY but he could win in MN, MI, WI, NH. Thompson would not have a chance in those states.
pretty much every republican candidate in 2006 lost (ultraconservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, ultraliberal or whatever) so I don’t think you can make that an issue. George Allen lost in VA so should we conclude that conservatives cannot win? I don’t think so. 2006 was a bad year. It is that simple.
Is Larry Sabato drinking Zogby’s sauce?? Or are the people in New Jersey sooooooooo damn dumb they would elect this corrupt cadaver??
Just wait until Hillary’s people remind the voters just how liberal he is, the cross-dressing pics, the personal life stuff, and on and on and it will be devastating at turning out the Conservative base. A 3rd party candidate WILL come forward. I won’t vote for Rudy if he is the nominee, he simply isn’t a Conservative and he isn’t trustworthy with many important issues that matter to Conservatives like me.
And lastly, there is no poll showing Rudy beating Hillary in ANY rodent state. If he can barely hold solid Republican states, do you think he’s going to win Democrat ones ? C’mon, man. This is a farking fiasco just waiting to happen.
yes, NJ keeps electing corrupt dems. I think 20% of mayors in NJ are in jail, while another 20% have been named “person of interest” or indicted. Hudson county is well-known for voter fraud and bribes. Menendez was implicated in at least one FBI probe yet he was easily elected.
NJ is very expensive TV market to compete. Union supported candidates have great advantage there (and about 45% of households is employed by the state and therefore belong to union). Anyway, maybe in 2002 republican senator could have won.
“Just wait until Hillary’s people remind the voters just how liberal he is, the cross-dressing pics,”
Nobody cares about Rudy’s TV show pictures (saturday nights’ live?). It was a TV show, for god’s sake (and moderates/independents probably like Rudy being semiliberal and they are the majority in purple/blue states).
“And lastly, there is no poll showing Rudy beating Hillary in ANY rodent state. If he can barely hold solid Republican states, do you think he’s going to win Democrat ones ? C’mon, man. This is a farking fiasco just waiting to happen.”
Well, then we just have to disagree. I support Romney (so far) but I’m sure Rudy would be strong in purple states. Hard-core conservative would have zero chance of winning purple states like PA, MI, but Rudy’s proven leadership and moderate stance would certainly make it possible.
The main reason why he could win purple/blue state is because he is not seen too conservative. Number of independents or democrat leaning voters has been rising steadily and they easily outnumber republicans/conservatives.
I would love to have Senator George Allen or Senator Rick Santorum as the nominee, but they were kicked out of office in purple states. Unfortunately, this is how things are now. Candidate like Allen or Santorum might win SC but would be absolutely trashed in purple states.
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