Skip to comments.Rasmussen Sees A Republican Rebound
Posted on 01/02/2008 6:52:54 AM PST by jdm
Surveys in 2006 saw an erosion in Republican Party affiliation that opened the gap between the major parties from 1.6% to over 6%, favoring Democrats, by the end of the year. Twelve months later, the performance of the Democrats while controlling Congress has almost completely reversed the trend. Rolling into 2008, Rasmussen shows that Republicans have their highest share of affiliation since January 2006 and only trail Democrats by two points:
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. Thats the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).
At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. Thats down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February....
Back in May, the Republicans fell to their lowest level of party identification of the past four years (30.8%). Then, the immigration debate raged in Congress and some Republican legislators helped defeat an unpopular Senate immigration bill. Republicans have gained ground in five of the seven months since then. But, the gains in December1.7 percentage pointsmatched the total gains for the previous six months combined.
The December gains for the GOP coincide with increased public confidence in the War on Terror. Its interesting to note that this did not improve President Bushs Job Approval ratings while helping the Republican Party overall.
The realignment comes at a "startling" time, Rasmussen notes. The report also suggests this as a reaction to the performance of Democrats in Congress. Nancy Pelosi has only a 38% approval rating, compared to 49% at the start of the year, suggesting that independents have lost confidence in her leadership, and possibly some Democrats. They note the sharp increase in December as a corollary to the improving confidence in the war on terror, which also suggests that the electorate may exact a price on Democrats for their strident defeatism throughout most of 2007.
It could mean something else as well. The past year gave voters a good look at the Democratic primary challengers, a thoroughly inexperienced lot. Given that the three Democrats with any chance of winning the nomination comprise less experience in national office combined than John McCain and no executive experience at all, some disenchantment may have set in with voters. It certainly doesn't give Democrats a reason to think that they have momentum for a general election -- in fact, this survey shows the opposite.
Independent affiliation has also dropped. This looks like former Republicans returning to the party. Self-described independents only make up 29.5% of the electorate, which is the first time since June 2006 that number has been below 30%.
After losing their first national election in four cycles in 2006, it looks like Republicans could rebound in 2008. They have the momentum, and they have closed the gap almost to where it was in November 2004. A few more months of Democratic incompetence in Congress could close the gap altogether.
I’d say it only indicated people are beginning to pay attention to politics.
If only we can get the remaining Republicans in Congress to ACT LIKE REPUBLICANS!
Who are these people who could vote for a Republican OR a Democrat?
The Mindless Middle.
Is there a chance the republicans will do something stupid to reverse this momentum?
Bush concurred. But not Reagan. He grabbed the microphone, gave the hosts his stern and disapproving look, and said that since he had paid for the mike, he was going to give every candidate a chance to make his case to the voters of New Hampshire"
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You see them every day. On the road, in the stores, on the job.
These are the mental midgets that corporations are so afraid of they must place instructions on plastic bags saying ... "WARNING: do not place bag over head ... it may cause suffocation"
You know ... those people you see and ask yourself how in the Hell do they even survive.
I expected something like this, but unfortunately I don’t think it’s because of conservatives “returning to the fold”.
I think it’s Democrats registering as Republicans in states where party registration is required to vote in the primary, so they can screw with the primary results - i.e., vote for Huckabee or Ron Paul or whatever.
We’re winning in Iraq — Americans like a winner!
Dims will cheat lie and steal to get to the white house. Don’t be suprised by anything they will pull come November and even after that.........
You slighlty miffed the story. The moderator had the mike turned off and that's when Reagan said "I paid for this microphone...".
“Id say it only indicated people are beginning to pay attention to politics.”
I think it means the Democrats have a very short period of time in which they must dump Reid and Pelosi like Tuesday’s trash. Unfortunately for them, I think those two will cling to power, no matter what.
ThankYa, but it isn’t MY story—I just referenced it.
I do, however, recall the story well, having seen the clip replayed many times on the lobotomy box over the years—not lately though.
If the ambulance-chasing trial lawyer should be elected President of the U.S., expect to see lots more of those warning signs.
Thank you sir!
You do fine work, and quickly.
But don’t you think there are Republicans crossing over to vote for the most unelectable Democrat in the primaries? If I could, I would.