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Rasmussen Sees A Republican Rebound
Captain's Quarters ^ | Jan. 02, 2008 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 01/02/2008 6:52:54 AM PST by jdm

Surveys in 2006 saw an erosion in Republican Party affiliation that opened the gap between the major parties from 1.6% to over 6%, favoring Democrats, by the end of the year. Twelve months later, the performance of the Democrats while controlling Congress has almost completely reversed the trend. Rolling into 2008, Rasmussen shows that Republicans have their highest share of affiliation since January 2006 and only trail Democrats by two points:

The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. That’s the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).

At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. That’s down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February....

Back in May, the Republicans fell to their lowest level of party identification of the past four years (30.8%). Then, the immigration debate raged in Congress and some Republican legislators helped defeat an unpopular Senate immigration bill. Republicans have gained ground in five of the seven months since then. But, the gains in December—1.7 percentage points—matched the total gains for the previous six months combined.

The December gains for the GOP coincide with increased public confidence in the War on Terror. It’s interesting to note that this did not improve President Bush’s Job Approval ratings while helping the Republican Party overall.

The realignment comes at a "startling" time, Rasmussen notes. The report also suggests this as a reaction to the performance of Democrats in Congress. Nancy Pelosi has only a 38% approval rating, compared to 49% at the start of the year, suggesting that independents have lost confidence in her leadership, and possibly some Democrats. They note the sharp increase in December as a corollary to the improving confidence in the war on terror, which also suggests that the electorate may exact a price on Democrats for their strident defeatism throughout most of 2007.

It could mean something else as well. The past year gave voters a good look at the Democratic primary challengers, a thoroughly inexperienced lot. Given that the three Democrats with any chance of winning the nomination comprise less experience in national office combined than John McCain and no executive experience at all, some disenchantment may have set in with voters. It certainly doesn't give Democrats a reason to think that they have momentum for a general election -- in fact, this survey shows the opposite.

Independent affiliation has also dropped. This looks like former Republicans returning to the party. Self-described independents only make up 29.5% of the electorate, which is the first time since June 2006 that number has been below 30%.

After losing their first national election in four cycles in 2006, it looks like Republicans could rebound in 2008. They have the momentum, and they have closed the gap almost to where it was in November 2004. A few more months of Democratic incompetence in Congress could close the gap altogether.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: marines; rasmussen; rebound; republican
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1 posted on 01/02/2008 6:52:54 AM PST by jdm
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To: jdm

I’d say it only indicated people are beginning to pay attention to politics.


2 posted on 01/02/2008 6:59:06 AM PST by Badeye (No thanks, Huck, I'm not whitewashing the fence for you this election cycle)
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To: jdm

If only we can get the remaining Republicans in Congress to ACT LIKE REPUBLICANS!


3 posted on 01/02/2008 7:03:04 AM PST by digger48
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To: Badeye

Who are these people who could vote for a Republican OR a Democrat?

The Mindless Middle.


4 posted on 01/02/2008 7:04:59 AM PST by rightinthemiddle (Guess what? I'm voting for the Conservative.)
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To: jdm

Is there a chance the republicans will do something stupid to reverse this momentum?


5 posted on 01/02/2008 7:12:09 AM PST by aberaussie
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To: jdm
Speaking of Republicans.... Anyone know whether or not the below referenced film/video clip re Ronald Reagan is anywhere to be found online??? http://gunnyg.wordpress.com/ http://www.ronpaul2008.com/veterans A DEFINING MOMENT IN PRESIDENTIAL POLY-TIKS! "One of the defining moments in presidential politics for me came on the night of the New Hampshire Republican debates in 1980. It was a heated campaign, and although there were several other candidates on the ballot, George Herbert Walker Bush and Ronald Reagan were running neck and neck. The debate hosts wanted Reagan and Bush to square off against each other, and tried to keep the other candidates off the stage.

Bush concurred. But not Reagan. He grabbed the microphone, gave the hosts his stern and disapproving look, and said that since he had paid for the mike, he was going to give every candidate a chance to make his case to the voters of New Hampshire"

http://tinyurl.com/2ldm2h

-- ********** THE "G" BLOGS...by GyG http://www.network54.com/Forum/578302/ and.... http://gunnyg.wordpress.com/ Also known as Gunny G's Globe and Anchor Sites/Forums/Blogs.... ~~~~~

6 posted on 01/02/2008 7:12:27 AM PST by gunnyg
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To: rightinthemiddle
"Who are these people who could vote for a Republican OR a Democrat?"


You see them every day. On the road, in the stores, on the job.

These are the mental midgets that corporations are so afraid of they must place instructions on plastic bags saying ... "WARNING: do not place bag over head ... it may cause suffocation"

You know ... those people you see and ask yourself how in the Hell do they even survive.

7 posted on 01/02/2008 7:12:34 AM PST by G.Mason (And what is intelligence if not the craft of out-thinking our adversaries?)
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To: jdm

I expected something like this, but unfortunately I don’t think it’s because of conservatives “returning to the fold”.

I think it’s Democrats registering as Republicans in states where party registration is required to vote in the primary, so they can screw with the primary results - i.e., vote for Huckabee or Ron Paul or whatever.

Qwinn


8 posted on 01/02/2008 7:15:24 AM PST by Qwinn
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To: jdm

We’re winning in Iraq — Americans like a winner!


9 posted on 01/02/2008 7:16:59 AM PST by avacado
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To: avacado

Dims will cheat lie and steal to get to the white house. Don’t be suprised by anything they will pull come November and even after that.........


10 posted on 01/02/2008 7:18:05 AM PST by JFC
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To: gunnyg
Bush concurred. But not Reagan. He grabbed the microphone, gave the hosts his stern and disapproving look, and said that since he had paid for the mike, he was going to give every candidate a chance to make his case to the voters of New Hampshire"

You slighlty miffed the story. The moderator had the mike turned off and that's when Reagan said "I paid for this microphone...".

11 posted on 01/02/2008 7:19:11 AM PST by AmericaUnited
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To: Badeye

“I’d say it only indicated people are beginning to pay attention to politics.”

I think it means the Democrats have a very short period of time in which they must dump Reid and Pelosi like Tuesday’s trash. Unfortunately for them, I think those two will cling to power, no matter what.


12 posted on 01/02/2008 7:23:21 AM PST by DodoDreamer
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To: gunnyg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHve9iQymqE&feature=related


13 posted on 01/02/2008 7:25:03 AM PST by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: AmericaUnited

ThankYa, but it isn’t MY story—I just referenced it.

I do, however, recall the story well, having seen the clip replayed many times on the lobotomy box over the years—not lately though.


14 posted on 01/02/2008 7:25:42 AM PST by gunnyg
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To: jdm
If the current Democrat Freakshow Parade doesn't cause a Republican Rebound nothing will!
15 posted on 01/02/2008 7:25:50 AM PST by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: G.Mason

If the ambulance-chasing trial lawyer should be elected President of the U.S., expect to see lots more of those warning signs.


16 posted on 01/02/2008 7:28:10 AM PST by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: Straight Vermonter

Thank you sir!

You do fine work, and quickly.
Semper Fidelis
Dick Gaines


17 posted on 01/02/2008 7:28:28 AM PST by gunnyg
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To: jdm
I'm worried less about 2008 than I was about 2004 since I remember a guy named Gene McCarthy.

America simply won't tolerate inexperience in national security.
18 posted on 01/02/2008 7:29:08 AM PST by Thrownatbirth (.....Iraq Invasion fan since '91.)
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To: Qwinn

But don’t you think there are Republicans crossing over to vote for the most unelectable Democrat in the primaries? If I could, I would.


19 posted on 01/02/2008 7:29:34 AM PST by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: digger48

They won’t.


20 posted on 01/02/2008 7:32:21 AM PST by freekitty ((May the eagles long fly our beautiful and free American sky.))
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To: DodoDreamer
Reid and Pelosi are just the tip of the iceberg trashpile. The entire Democrat Party is trash, and, if their supporters were not morons, they would dump the lot of 'em...uh... Wait a minute... If their supporters were not morons, they wouldn't be their supporters in the first place.
21 posted on 01/02/2008 7:34:06 AM PST by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: aberaussie

I feel it is certain.

If we get a RINO candidate (Romney, in particular), I will cease to be a republican for several years.

I just won’t vote or participate -— and I rallied probably 100 people to the polls in New Mexico and raised probably 100,000 -— small potatoes, I know, but there are more disaffected conservagtives like me every day.


22 posted on 01/02/2008 7:35:26 AM PST by TheThirdRuffian
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To: Qwinn
Unless I'm reading this wrong (I don't think I am), it appears this has NOTHING to do with voter registration. It concerns how people identify themselves in a survey.

I can't really think of any good (or nefarious) reason people would do as you suggest in something like this.

I honestly don't think your conspiracy-type suggestion would really impact a study such as this even if it did rely on voter registration.

23 posted on 01/02/2008 7:39:48 AM PST by safeasthebanks ("The most rewarding part, was when he gave me my money!" - Dr. Nick)
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To: Savage Beast

I think both Parties are pretty much trash. I vote GOP because they are the Lesser of Evils. However, I have no illusions about most Republican elected officials.


24 posted on 01/02/2008 7:41:49 AM PST by DodoDreamer
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To: Straight Vermonter

...thanks for the video clip....it reminds me of how much I miss Reagan.


25 posted on 01/02/2008 7:47:13 AM PST by STONEWALLS
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To: Straight Vermonter

from one of those other clips, I guess I’d forgotten that Carter was pushing for universal healthcare way back then


26 posted on 01/02/2008 7:49:00 AM PST by digger48
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To: Qwinn

These figures are not based on voter registrations.

“These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.”

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends


27 posted on 01/02/2008 7:57:21 AM PST by Cap Huff
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To: Qwinn

This is just a public opinion poll and may or may not have anything to do with registration. Dems cross-registering can still tell Rasmussen the truth.


28 posted on 01/02/2008 7:57:41 AM PST by steve8714 (Build the fence, ship 'em out, legalize teen workers.)
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To: DodoDreamer
Me too. Politicians are snake-oil salesmen. They run governments, and governments are necessary evils--and the bigger the government the greater the evil. It's to the advantage of these snake-oil salesmen to keep increasing the size, reach, appetite, and power of government--and consequently its evil--because this increases their power. They use this power to parasitize the governed. Only a moron, a masochist, or a fellow-sociopath would want to empower these snake-oil salesmen.

However, there's a big difference between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Democrats are light-years worse!

I'm a one-issue voter: Defeat the Democrats.

29 posted on 01/02/2008 8:09:12 AM PST by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: jdm

Thank you Captain for not using the word surge in your headline.


30 posted on 01/02/2008 8:13:37 AM PST by upchuck (Attention Senator Clinton: Lying Is Stupid When The Truth Is So Easy To Find)
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To: Savage Beast

Sure, Republicans could cross over to pick the most unelectable Democrat - but who the heck knows who that is? I would guess it’s Hillary, but one, I don’t think she’ll need much help to win her primary, and two, I don’t think even the most evil and conniving Republican could stomach both registering Dem -and- pulling a lever - any lever, even as a means to sabotage - for her. Imagine the remorse if she somehow won, heh.

Pubs have reason to vote in their own primary. Dems really don’t, all their candidates are pretty much the same, differing only in style.

Qwinn


31 posted on 01/02/2008 8:18:58 AM PST by Qwinn
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To: STONEWALLS
I don't understand the "meaning" behind I am paying for this microphone. Can someone direct me to the explanation?

Candidates don't pay to participate in debates --- do they? That was a New Hampshire primary debate in 1980?

32 posted on 01/02/2008 8:22:11 AM PST by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
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To: steve8714

“This is just a public opinion poll and may or may not have anything to do with registration. Dems cross-registering can still tell Rasmussen the truth.”

Dems... telling truth?

Come on now. Where ya been? This is the party that fights all attempts to require voter ID, that brings out legions of the dead to vote, etc. etc. They’re habitual liars and connivers. If they register in order to screw with the Pub vote, they’ll “cover their ass” by telling the pollster they’re a Republican just out of habit... when you’re pulling a con, you don’t tell -anybody- what the real gig is.

Sure, it wouldn’t matter, no pollster is going to tie that to their vote, but it’s just the sort of habit of trying to be consistent in their lies that habitual liars are prone to.

Qwinn


33 posted on 01/02/2008 8:24:49 AM PST by Qwinn
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To: proud2beconservativeinNJ

He paid for it as a taxpayer. It was a reminder that government is supposed to be “by the people, for the people”.

Qwinn


34 posted on 01/02/2008 8:26:09 AM PST by Qwinn
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To: Qwinn
Dear Qwinn,

Thanks for the explanation. And sending it to me promptly and in a kind and gentle way. I thought it was too obvious of an answer.

You are part of what I love about Free Republic. Regards, Margie

35 posted on 01/02/2008 8:32:46 AM PST by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
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To: digger48
If only we can get the remaining Republicans in Congress to ACT LIKE REPUBLICANS!

That seems to be there problem friend , they need to act like and be conservatives.

36 posted on 01/02/2008 8:34:53 AM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: jdm

Any rebound will be of little use if we fail to nominate Fred for President. The RINO nominee will sink the entire ticket.


37 posted on 01/02/2008 8:35:34 AM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~~~Jihad Fever -- Catch It !~~~ (Backup tag: "Live Fred or Die"))
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To: Qwinn

These are Dem voters, not officials or party leaders.


38 posted on 01/02/2008 8:40:40 AM PST by steve8714 (Build the fence, ship 'em out, legalize teen workers.)
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To: avacado
We’re winning in Iraq — Americans like a winner!

I'd agree except that most Americans don't know that we're winning.

39 posted on 01/02/2008 8:49:09 AM PST by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: gunnyg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mqGQjn9vH4
40 posted on 01/02/2008 8:57:51 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam is a religion of peace, and Muslims reserve the right to kill anyone who says otherwise.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Yeh—both RR and Fred were second rate actors—only RR was actor enough to meet the minimum qualifications for the gubmint dole...

;)
Just Plain Dick
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


41 posted on 01/02/2008 9:03:55 AM PST by gunnyg
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To: proud2beconservativeinNJ

From wikipedia:

With the other candidates (besides Bush and Reagan) in single digits, the Nashua Telegraph offered to host a debate between Reagan and Bush. Worried that a newspaper-sponsored debate might violate electoral regulations, Reagan subsequently arranged to fund the event with his own campaign money, inviting the other candidates to participate at short notice. The Bush camp did not learn of Reagan’s decision to include the other candidates until the debate was due to commence. Bush refused to participate, which led to an impasse on the stage. As Reagan attempted to explain his decision, the editor of the Nashua Telegraph ordered the sound man to mute Reagan’s microphone. A visibly angry Reagan responded “I am paying for this microphone, Mr. Green!” (the editor’s name was in fact Jon Breen).[1][2] Eventually the other candidates agreed to leave, and the debate proceeded between Reagan and Bush. Reagan’s quote was often repeated as “I paid for this microphone!” and dominated news coverage of the event; Bush did not make an impact with the voters.


42 posted on 01/02/2008 9:09:25 AM PST by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: pgkdan
"I'd agree except that most Americans don't know that we're winning."

Sad but true.

43 posted on 01/02/2008 9:10:06 AM PST by avacado
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To: jdm

Well, that’s good news at least.


44 posted on 01/02/2008 9:13:58 AM PST by Marysecretary (GOD IS STILL IN CONTROL.)
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To: Qwinn
You're right.

The last time I crossed over and voted for the least electable candidate--HE WON THE ELECTION!

The last time I held my nose and donated to a Democrat politician, he was my state senator and had offered to help me with a very difficult problem. I was the unwitting victim of a severe injustice. He was a rock-bottom sleazebag (typical of Democrat politicians). After months went by, I realized he wasn't going to help--as he had promised to do--(he didn't even bother to let me know)--and was a complete scumbag. He fully intended to exploit me and my unhappy circumstances to his advantage (typical of Democrat politicians) and was only interested in what he could get out of it all for himself (typical of Democrat politicians). I vomited.

Then I called a state rep., a Republican, to whose campaign I had donated. I had attended a fund-raising party on his behalf. He was also a sleazebag--but at least he told me he wasn't going to help.

A distant relative contacted a Republican politician, a "friend" of his, in my behalf. However, when I spoke with this Republican politician, he was insulting and told me that he would not help me. He was also a sleazebag, but, again, at least he told me to get lost--unlike the vastly more sleazy Democrat.

Then I finally contacted my state rep., whom I didn't know--and Independent. He was a first rate, first class, absolutely wonderful man, who turned out to be one of my heroes. He still is. He helped me. He solved my problem quickly and justly. Afterward, when I asked him--in all confidentiality--how I could repay him (I was careful to ask him in utter privacy, and I thought, from my experience with the Democrat and Republican politicians, that he might just name his price), he said that my happiness and good citizenship were the only repayment he wanted. He will always be one of my heroes. Needless to say, he was not re-elected in the next election.

There is more good than evil in human nature. However, politics attracts degenerates, sociopaths, the greedy, and other undesirables like a magnet and skews the population of elected officials toward evil. Only a moron or a fellow sleazebag would want to empower these scumbag politicians further or to increase the size, reach, appetite, and power of the governments that are their instruments for exploiting the general population.

But of all the scumbags I encountered during this ordeal, the heroes (there were others too) were like brilliant suns. I revere them. They are like Scott Beamer. The world is full of heroes--most of them average people like you and me--lost in the crowd.

But politics attracts anti-heroes, sleazebags, degenerates, sociopaths, and other assorted undesirables like a magnet.

45 posted on 01/02/2008 9:17:46 AM PST by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: digger48
If only we can get the remaining Republicans in Congress to ACT LIKE REPUBLICANS!

That may be the problem. It's time to get the remaining Republicans in Congress to act like conservatives.
46 posted on 01/02/2008 9:21:21 AM PST by AD from SpringBay (We have the government we allow and deserve.)
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To: Straight Vermonter
"....Worried that a newspaper-sponsored debate might violate electoral regulations, Reagan subsequently arranged to fund the event with his own campaign money, inviting the other candidates to participate at short notice...."

Thank you for sharing. Good day, Vermonter.

47 posted on 01/02/2008 9:26:56 AM PST by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
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To: jdm
After losing their first national election in four cycles in 2006, it looks like Republicans could rebound in 2008. They have the momentum, and they have closed the gap almost to where it was in November 2004. A few more months of Democratic incompetence in Congress could close the gap altogether.

A Presidential candidate who appeals to a broad range of Republican voters could help bring Republican Congressional candidates along, too. I think Fred is that man.

The Democrats only won their majority by very slim margins in some places, so they are vulnerable. The fact that they acted so arrogantly after they took the majority in Congress only helped turn folks against them.

48 posted on 01/02/2008 10:14:02 AM PST by SuziQ
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To: proud2beconservativeinNJ

“I don’t understand the “meaning” behind I am paying for this microphone. Can someone direct me to the explanation?”

.....I just got in and saw that others have answered your question better than I could have....it seems like in every campaign there’s always one “punch line” moment that stands out....that was one for Reagan....others that come to mind:
“I knew John Kennedy and you’re no Kennedy”Lloyd Bensen
“Where’s the beef” Walter Mondale


49 posted on 01/02/2008 11:08:25 AM PST by STONEWALLS
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To: E. Pluribus Unum; Stonewall
I watched the the video of RR from your YouTube link and while I had it on my husband walked by and said he remembered that line. Great post.

Stonewall - How about Kerry's "reporting for duty." That was defining also. His presentation that night made a very positive impression on me. I thought - He seems strong. I always was partial to anyone serving our country. Then it turned out to be a defining line in the most fake hero boy way.

50 posted on 01/02/2008 12:58:53 PM PST by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
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