Skip to comments.Rasmussen Sees A Republican Rebound
Posted on 01/02/2008 6:52:54 AM PST by jdm
Surveys in 2006 saw an erosion in Republican Party affiliation that opened the gap between the major parties from 1.6% to over 6%, favoring Democrats, by the end of the year. Twelve months later, the performance of the Democrats while controlling Congress has almost completely reversed the trend. Rolling into 2008, Rasmussen shows that Republicans have their highest share of affiliation since January 2006 and only trail Democrats by two points:
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. Thats the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).
At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. Thats down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February....
Back in May, the Republicans fell to their lowest level of party identification of the past four years (30.8%). Then, the immigration debate raged in Congress and some Republican legislators helped defeat an unpopular Senate immigration bill. Republicans have gained ground in five of the seven months since then. But, the gains in December1.7 percentage pointsmatched the total gains for the previous six months combined.
The December gains for the GOP coincide with increased public confidence in the War on Terror. Its interesting to note that this did not improve President Bushs Job Approval ratings while helping the Republican Party overall.
The realignment comes at a "startling" time, Rasmussen notes. The report also suggests this as a reaction to the performance of Democrats in Congress. Nancy Pelosi has only a 38% approval rating, compared to 49% at the start of the year, suggesting that independents have lost confidence in her leadership, and possibly some Democrats. They note the sharp increase in December as a corollary to the improving confidence in the war on terror, which also suggests that the electorate may exact a price on Democrats for their strident defeatism throughout most of 2007.
It could mean something else as well. The past year gave voters a good look at the Democratic primary challengers, a thoroughly inexperienced lot. Given that the three Democrats with any chance of winning the nomination comprise less experience in national office combined than John McCain and no executive experience at all, some disenchantment may have set in with voters. It certainly doesn't give Democrats a reason to think that they have momentum for a general election -- in fact, this survey shows the opposite.
Independent affiliation has also dropped. This looks like former Republicans returning to the party. Self-described independents only make up 29.5% of the electorate, which is the first time since June 2006 that number has been below 30%.
After losing their first national election in four cycles in 2006, it looks like Republicans could rebound in 2008. They have the momentum, and they have closed the gap almost to where it was in November 2004. A few more months of Democratic incompetence in Congress could close the gap altogether.
I feel it is certain.
If we get a RINO candidate (Romney, in particular), I will cease to be a republican for several years.
I just won’t vote or participate -— and I rallied probably 100 people to the polls in New Mexico and raised probably 100,000 -— small potatoes, I know, but there are more disaffected conservagtives like me every day.
I can't really think of any good (or nefarious) reason people would do as you suggest in something like this.
I honestly don't think your conspiracy-type suggestion would really impact a study such as this even if it did rely on voter registration.
I think both Parties are pretty much trash. I vote GOP because they are the Lesser of Evils. However, I have no illusions about most Republican elected officials.
...thanks for the video clip....it reminds me of how much I miss Reagan.
from one of those other clips, I guess I’d forgotten that Carter was pushing for universal healthcare way back then
These figures are not based on voter registrations.
“These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.”
This is just a public opinion poll and may or may not have anything to do with registration. Dems cross-registering can still tell Rasmussen the truth.
However, there's a big difference between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Democrats are light-years worse!
I'm a one-issue voter: Defeat the Democrats.
Thank you Captain for not using the word surge in your headline.
Sure, Republicans could cross over to pick the most unelectable Democrat - but who the heck knows who that is? I would guess it’s Hillary, but one, I don’t think she’ll need much help to win her primary, and two, I don’t think even the most evil and conniving Republican could stomach both registering Dem -and- pulling a lever - any lever, even as a means to sabotage - for her. Imagine the remorse if she somehow won, heh.
Pubs have reason to vote in their own primary. Dems really don’t, all their candidates are pretty much the same, differing only in style.
Candidates don't pay to participate in debates --- do they? That was a New Hampshire primary debate in 1980?
“This is just a public opinion poll and may or may not have anything to do with registration. Dems cross-registering can still tell Rasmussen the truth.”
Dems... telling truth?
Come on now. Where ya been? This is the party that fights all attempts to require voter ID, that brings out legions of the dead to vote, etc. etc. They’re habitual liars and connivers. If they register in order to screw with the Pub vote, they’ll “cover their ass” by telling the pollster they’re a Republican just out of habit... when you’re pulling a con, you don’t tell -anybody- what the real gig is.
Sure, it wouldn’t matter, no pollster is going to tie that to their vote, but it’s just the sort of habit of trying to be consistent in their lies that habitual liars are prone to.
He paid for it as a taxpayer. It was a reminder that government is supposed to be “by the people, for the people”.
Thanks for the explanation. And sending it to me promptly and in a kind and gentle way. I thought it was too obvious of an answer.
You are part of what I love about Free Republic. Regards, Margie
That seems to be there problem friend , they need to act like and be conservatives.
Any rebound will be of little use if we fail to nominate Fred for President. The RINO nominee will sink the entire ticket.
These are Dem voters, not officials or party leaders.
I'd agree except that most Americans don't know that we're winning.