Study: Northeast winters warming fast

Associated Press ^ | January 12, 2008 | MICHAEL HILL

[decimon]

ALBANY, N.Y. - Earlier blooms. Less snow to shovel. Unseasonable warm spells.

Signs that winters in the Northeast are losing their bite have been abundant in recent years and now researchers have nailed down numbers to show just how big the changes have been.

A study of weather station data from across the Northeast from 1965 through 2005 found December-March temperatures increased by 2.5 degrees. Snowfall totals dropped by an average of 8.8 inches across the region over the same period, and the number of days with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground decreased by nine days on average.

"Winter is warming greater than any other season," said Elizabeth Burakowski, who analyzed data from dozens of stations for her master's thesis in collaboration with Cameron Wake, a professor at the University of New Hampshire's Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space.

Burakowski, who graduated from UNH in December, found that the biggest snowfall decreases were in December and February. Stations in New England showed the strongest decreases in winter snowfall, about 3 inches a decade.

There were wide disparities in snowfall over the eight-state region, with average totals ranging from 13.5 inches at Cape May, N.J., to 137.6 inches at Oswego, N.Y. Some stations on the Great Lakes, where lake-effect storms are common, showed an increase.

The reduction in days with at least an inch of snow on the ground was the most pronounced at stations between 42 and 44 degrees latitude — a band that includes most of Massachusetts, a thick slice of upstate New York and southern sections of Vermont and New Hampshire.

Burakowski cites two likely causes for the reduction in so-called snow-covered days: higher maximum temperatures and "snow-albedo feedback," in which less snow cover to begin with allows more sunshine warmth to be absorbed by the darker ground, making it less conducive to snow cover.

The research has yet to appear in a peer-reviewed journal, though meteorologists who have studied long-term climate trends said the observations appear to be in line with other research.

Richard Heim of the National Climatic Data Center looked at trends in snowfall totals nationwide from 1948 to 2006 and found that patterns varied regionally and seasonally. For the Northeast in winter, he found totals mostly decreasing along coastal areas, with an increasing trend along the Great Lakes. Art DeGaetano, of the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, said regions around New York state have recorded negative trends in snowfall since 1970.

DeGaetano cautioned that snowfall totals can vary a lot from year to year. Last month, for example, snow totals were well above average for December across much of the Northeast.

Ski center operators also have noticed an incremental increase in temperatures over the decades, said Parker Riehle, president of the trade association Ski Vermont, but he echoed DeGaetano's point that snow totals have gone up and down.

"We've seen some erratic winters in recent years," Riehle said. "The mood swings of Mother Nature, perhaps, are deeper than they used to be."

But while ski slopes can fire up snow-making guns to compensate for lack of flurries, snowmobilers and cross-country skiers have complained about later starts and fewer trails covered with snow.

Cross-country skiers never even get in the right frame of mind during some winters, said Mark Booska of the Hudson Valley Ski Club.

"They look out their window and they're not thinking skiing," he said.

[Porterville]

Meanwhile it snows in Bahgdad....

[Sacajaweau]

I live just outside of Rochester, New York. I have an old book (circa 1890) showing the temp averages for the ten years previous. It’s all in HOW you do the stats.

[CTSeditor]

I dunno. Parts of New York have gotten plenty of snow this winter season so far. More coming within a day or so.

[rwgal]

Not to put a damper on the ALGOREITES out there, but could the weather anomalies we see be part of the natural wobbling of the earth in it’s distance from the sun...so that some centuries it may be warmer and others it may be cooler?

Meadow Muffin

[decimon]

Meanwhile it snows in Bahgdad....

The snow went with the soldiers from Camp Drum.

[cripplecreek]

I’m enjoying the heck out of our warm winter here in Michigan. They were out on the lake ice fishing last week and now the ice is gone and a guy was out there fishing from a boat today.

Wish I could count on this globull warming thing to pan out but I doubt its going to happen.

[gathersnomoss]

Uh-huh. I was in Saranac, NY during the holiday’s. Let’s see...30” of snow on the ground and 7” added before New Years. Great powder at Titus Mountain.

I don’t recall the MSM saying that it was getting colder at that time.

[decimon]

I live just outside of Rochester, New York.

Greece doesn't count. ;-)

[mysterio]

Indiana’s winters have been a lot warmer overall. But I think it’s a jet stream thing.

[decimon]

Indiana’s winters have been a lot warmer overall.

It's the overalls. Or 'overhauls' as I would hear when in the Army.

[been_lurking]

...but could the weather anomalies we see be part of the natural wobbling of the earth in it’s distance from the sun...so that some centuries it may be warmer and others it may be cooler?

If there is any planet wobbling going on, then it must be the result of all of us humans moving around.

I know this to be true because the Weather Channel told me that "Climate Change" was my fault.

/s

[AmericaUnited]

Lizzy phone home. Concord, NH just set a 100 year record for snowfall in December.

[Kickass Conservative]

Bush has been President since 1965? How’d I miss that?

Bush Derangement Syndrome, incurable since January 2001.

[NonValueAdded]

Of course, a blink of the cosmic eye ago (a mere 17000 years, hardly a finger snap’s worth of time), the entire area was under a glacier. Man grabs a tiny slice of that tiny slice in time and declares that to be “normal.”

[rockabyebaby]

Um Lizh oney, I hate to break it to ya girlfriend but we are expecting snow tomorrow nite into Monday, so there will be plenty of this global warming crap to shovel.....

[ChocChipCookie]

Maybe warmer winters might attract people to move to these states that have had declining populations for several years. It might also attract new businesses to the area. There’s always an upside.

[capt. norm]

They're not up to date>

Global cooling is now indicated in the solar cycles and a chill is in the future.

Hey, the sun is like the electric power company to Earth. If the sun decreases what it sends us, there is nothing we can do about it short of adapting.

All the politicians in the world combined cannot come up with enough hot air to get us out of this one.

There was a post earlier today on it but I can't find it. Here is a brief line about it from the National Post:

The science behind the idea of man-made global warming, always theoretical and often speculative, appears set to receive another blow. A report in New Scientist magazine yesterday chronicles the work of a crew of scientists who forecast a new wave of global cooling brought on by a decline in activity in the sun.

The Global Warmists and their newly anointed "Climate Change" sect had better hurry up and scare as many as they can because real life will show them for what they are. Time is their greatest enemy as it will prove them wrong.

Al Gore's name, in history, is going to go right along side Pewee Herman's.

[pacpam]

It your study encompasses 1965-to present, then what are you comparing it to? If this passes for research we are worse off than I thought.

[Sacajaweau]

We got twice as much snow in December compared to the year before. We had a mild warmup but that’s a typical January event. Had one the year we went to Hawaii...about1971...End of January. It was about 70 when we landed here...Rochester, NY.