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ARG Poll: Florida GOP Primary
ARG ^ | 1/25/08 | ARG

Posted on 01/25/2008 8:32:06 PM PST by Norman Bates

John McCain
31%

Mitt Romney
26%

Mike Huckabee
15%

Rudy Giuliani
14%

Ron Paul
3%

Alan Keyes
1%

Conducted Jan. 23-24
Sample: 600 LVs
MoE: ± 4%


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2008; fl2008; polls
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Undecideds jumped from 3% to 10%. Sounds like some former Fred backers might not have found a home yet.
1 posted on 01/25/2008 8:32:07 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: TitansAFC; meandog; therut; MARTIAL MONK; furquhart; sportutegrl; aroostook war; mossyoaks; ...
The McCain List.
2 posted on 01/25/2008 8:33:19 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

As much as I disagree with most of his positions, I hate to see Rudy trailing the pack (the irrelevant moonbat aside). I think Romney and Rudy are the only two candidates who have ANY chance at winning the general election, and if Rudy gets knocked out of the box, it’s a win for the media and RATS, since our chance for a successful candidate is down to one.


3 posted on 01/25/2008 8:34:26 PM PST by Pravious
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To: Pravious

From their previous poll Mitt is up 4% and McQueeg is up 2%. It looks like Mitt is gaining on McQueeg even in a ARG poll. Good news for Mitt Romney.


4 posted on 01/25/2008 8:37:31 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Pravious

Rudy’s decline has been staggering. I kind of feel sorry for him. Whoever designed his campaign strategy seriously miscalculated.


5 posted on 01/25/2008 8:38:28 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Pravious
I think Romney and Rudy are the only two candidates who have ANY chance at winning the general election

That is exactly the way I have seen it from the beginning.

6 posted on 01/25/2008 8:38:54 PM PST by outofstyle (My Ride's Here)
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To: Pravious

McCain beats any democrat as well.


7 posted on 01/25/2008 8:39:00 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush)
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To: Norman Bates

This is an ARG poll. If their recent track record holds true, either Romney or Huckabee are on top.


8 posted on 01/25/2008 8:39:22 PM PST by Ingtar (Romney is not the answer. What was the question?)
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To: Parley Baer
Enough with the Bagdad Bob polls. At this time there is no way Gramps is ahead of Mittens.
9 posted on 01/25/2008 8:39:49 PM PST by fantom
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To: Parley Baer

If Rudy backers sense he can’t make it, there may be a mass defection, in which case Romney would be toast.


10 posted on 01/25/2008 8:40:23 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Ingtar

Not necessarily. Although you are right, their record is quite mixed.


11 posted on 01/25/2008 8:41:35 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

For Florida, Real Clear Politics isn’t including the ARG polls into the Florida averages.


12 posted on 01/25/2008 8:43:03 PM PST by Kuksool
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To: jveritas
As far as i know the election is 10 months away . What poll on gramps beating the dems is relevant. Obama had a 12 point lead over cankles the day of voting. In 10 months with enough money and the right exposure , anything is possible.
13 posted on 01/25/2008 8:43:14 PM PST by fantom
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To: Kuksool

Yes, I know. ;-)


14 posted on 01/25/2008 8:43:24 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

ARG is the most unreliable polling firm nexxt to Fox News Polls and Newsweek polls.


15 posted on 01/25/2008 8:43:58 PM PST by nckerr (www.myspace.com/ArmyKerrFamily)
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To: fantom

For the thousandth time, the NH polls were “right.” They just didn’t have time to register Hillary’s cry session which occurred the day before the vote.


16 posted on 01/25/2008 8:44:40 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

You are siting the ARG poll? This has been one of the biggest failures this season. Until someone can back it up with another poll, this is an outliar.


17 posted on 01/25/2008 8:44:51 PM PST by Grunthor (What if Mitt offered the VP slot to Ralph Reed?)
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To: nckerr

You should be happy. Your guy’s in third!


18 posted on 01/25/2008 8:45:23 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Grunthor

Survey USA today has McCain leading by 2. IA has a tie. So it doesn’t seem too far off.


19 posted on 01/25/2008 8:46:10 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

LOL- I know. But look at the polling firm.


20 posted on 01/25/2008 8:46:21 PM PST by nckerr (www.myspace.com/ArmyKerrFamily)
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To: jveritas

“McCain beats any democrat as well.”

Yeah, lets all vote for Ted Kennedys’ favorite Republican.


21 posted on 01/25/2008 8:46:38 PM PST by Grunthor (What if Mitt offered the VP slot to Ralph Reed?)
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To: Pravious
I think Romney and Rudy are the only two candidates who have ANY chance at winning the general election

That's probably why they do the worst in head-to-head match-ups with Hillary and Obama?

I don't know where people come up with these theories....

22 posted on 01/25/2008 8:47:12 PM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: Kuksool

“For Florida, Real Clear Politics isn’t including the ARG polls into the Florida averages.”

Why?


23 posted on 01/25/2008 8:47:25 PM PST by Grunthor (What if Mitt offered the VP slot to Ralph Reed?)
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To: fantom

You are factual, sensible, accurate and reasonable.

I want you to stop posting here immediately ;)


24 posted on 01/25/2008 8:48:37 PM PST by citizen (Capt. McQueeg: "Have any of you an explanation for the quart of missing strawberries?" (click-clack))
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To: Norman Bates

“So it doesn’t seem too far off.”

If Mitt wins by 4 or more, ARG needs to be investigated for ties to Campo Juan.


25 posted on 01/25/2008 8:49:16 PM PST by Grunthor (What if Mitt offered the VP slot to Ralph Reed?)
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To: Grunthor

I don’t know who Ted’s favorite Republican is, but McCain can carry Ted’s state. That’ll give him heartburn!

McCain 50%
Obama 45%

McCain 45%
Hillary 49%

(SUSA: Mass., 1/23)


26 posted on 01/25/2008 8:49:52 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

“but McCain can carry Ted’s state. That’ll give him heartburn!”

I don’t know why it would, they are apparantly very good friends and they both hate conservatives.


27 posted on 01/25/2008 8:51:05 PM PST by Grunthor (What if Mitt offered the VP slot to Ralph Reed?)
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To: nckerr

I couldn’t help myself! :-)


28 posted on 01/25/2008 8:52:11 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

They included 35 independents. I bet they freaked out. They can’t vote! Independents cannot vote in primaries. I say this is flawed.


29 posted on 01/25/2008 8:54:27 PM PST by libbylu (Why vote for a democrat with an R next to his name? I'm a MITTen.)
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To: Norman Bates
McCain +5 (from +7).

Free Image Hosting at allyoucanupload.com

30 posted on 01/25/2008 8:59:52 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: Norman Bates

Norman RCP took that one poll off the front page. when you look at the totals by party Mitt leads it by 7 and they list dems and indys who cannot vote in the republican primary. Very strange.they took it off the front page after I emailed them,it is still underneath if you click for “all polls”.

And the poll above included 35 independents WHO CANNOT vote in the republican primary. Rasmussen market - Mitt went up 6 between the debate starting and ending, mcpain went down 5.


31 posted on 01/25/2008 9:01:15 PM PST by libbylu (Why vote for a democrat with an R next to his name? I'm a MITTen.)
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To: Norman Bates

Everybody says ARG is bad, but it is so bad that RCP left them out of their famous averages. Ouch.


32 posted on 01/25/2008 9:01:59 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: Norman Bates

IA isn’t a tie as I posted above. Mitt is up by 7..... when you take out the dems and indys who cannot vote in the republican primary.


33 posted on 01/25/2008 9:02:46 PM PST by libbylu (Why vote for a democrat with an R next to his name? I'm a MITTen.)
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To: libbylu

I don’t know what the explanation is for that but Romney’s not up 7 in FL. No poll shows that. Even when you take out the 6% of ind in this poll, McCain leads among Republicans. Don’t ask me. All I know is RCP has IA cited and if they felt it strange they would’ve pulled it. A tie makes sense.


34 posted on 01/25/2008 9:07:06 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Plutarch

Thank you for the graphic.


35 posted on 01/25/2008 9:07:45 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Ingtar
Romney and Guiliani were quite the au pair last night, working as a team.

My tagline reflects that assessment, not what I want to be.

I'd think Mitt would pick a Southerner for VP (DU is already ripping apart Blunt) but he may well keep Rudy.

We can beat the Clinton machine with Romney. We just have to go medieval, every day, all day on 'em.

The more moral of their rat base is disgusted by their co-ordinating the rat primaries as a Jerry Springer Show, and they're losing their base every day.

Reagan Democrats are disgusted, and can be swayed to Romney if we push the same wave for him as we did Fred.

Sniff. I hope you're happy, Fred.

36 posted on 01/25/2008 9:08:04 PM PST by txhurl (Yes there were WMDs /Romney/Guiliani '08 / Yes you will vote against Clinton)
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To: Norman Bates

My vote is already cast...early voted this afternoon for Romney. Killed me that I wanted to vote for Fred but Mitt was my 2nd choice and I wanted it to mean something as I know he will need every vote he can get in this state.

If Florida goes McCain..it will go Clinton in November.


37 posted on 01/25/2008 9:09:44 PM PST by My Favorite Headache (No One Gets To Their Heaven Without A Fight)
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To: jveritas
McCain beats any democrat as well

But even if he does they still win.

38 posted on 01/25/2008 9:10:54 PM PST by Mygirlsmom (Wish for Fred in one hand and Mitt in the other and see what you have more of.)
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To: Plutarch

That Ron Paul revolution is just about over I would say with those numbers.


39 posted on 01/25/2008 9:11:43 PM PST by My Favorite Headache (No One Gets To Their Heaven Without A Fight)
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To: Norman Bates
Rudy’s decline has been staggering. I kind of feel sorry for him. Whoever designed his campaign strategy seriously miscalculated.

With Rudy, primaries are like marriages. The first few don't really count...

40 posted on 01/25/2008 9:11:51 PM PST by hunter112 (With Fred gone, our best hope is for a compromise candidate from a brokered convention.)
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To: Norman Bates

Gotta see if this comes out right.
I assure you they took these polls off after I emailed them about it, and the underneath link is now broken.

Age

Gender

Race

Party

Total

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Male

Female

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Republican

Democrat

Independent

(Base)

(512)

(72)

(138)

(143)

(159)

(241)

(271)

(461)

(10)

(26)

(15)

(341)

(105)

(67)

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Romney

24.0

35.2

18.6

21.7

25.6

27.7

20.6

24.4

12.5

25.7

14.7

27.5

14.5

21.0

Giuliani

19.0

15.1

27.1

17.9

13.8

17.1

20.2

18.3

12.4

32.4

13.9

22.0

7.8

19.3

McCain

18.0

12.0

13.5

16.9

26.9

15.8

20.7

18.8

14.3

17.9

8.5

20.0

16.9

12.3

Huckabee

12.0

4.0

18.6

11.3

9.6

12.7

10.8

11.7

15.5

.0

28.8

12.7

7.4

13.4

Paul

7.0

6.3

8.7

11.4

3.2

8.4

6.5

7.6

19.8

.0

6.9

7.6

10.3

1.9

Other

5.0

.0

1.6

6.4

7.6

2.9

6.1

4.4

3.6

6.1

9.7

1.6

15.2

3.5

Undecided

15.0

27.3

11.9

14.4

13.3

15.4

15.0

14.8

22.0

17.9

17.4

8.6

28.0

28.6

Obviously, it’s only one poll. But, it holds little good information for McCain and much encouraging news for Romney. Very, very interesting.
1 posted on 01/23/2008 10:11:18 PM EST by Reaganesque
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To: Abbeville Conservative; ajay_kumar; americanophile; Austin1; bethtopaz; BlueAngel; ...
Mitt Ping!

Mitt Romney Ping List

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •

2 posted on 01/23/2008 10:13:03 PM EST by Reaganesque (Romney ...is manifestly the best candidate. - Ann Coulter [01/17/08])
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To: Reaganesque
Link to the rest of the poll’s internals.
3 posted on 01/23/2008 10:14:30 PM EST by Reaganesque (Romney ...is manifestly the best candidate. - Ann Coulter [01/17/08])
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To: Reaganesque


41 posted on 01/25/2008 9:14:55 PM PST by libbylu (Why vote for a democrat with an R next to his name? I'm a MITTen.)
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To: Norman Bates

ARG are the same pollsters who said Fred had 22% the night before SC. These guys suck!

My money, especially after last nights debate, McPain’s endorsement by the NYT and Bill’s floating of the story that Hill and Johnny are best buddies, is on Mitt!

Stick a fork in McCain! He’s done!


42 posted on 01/25/2008 9:16:51 PM PST by Anti-Hillary (Anyone but Hitlery)
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To: Norman Bates

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1958577/posts
the stats are in the second post.look at the republican row.

Mitt is up by 4 in a couple of polls, 7 isn’t that far off.


43 posted on 01/25/2008 9:17:18 PM PST by libbylu (Why vote for a democrat with an R next to his name? I'm a MITTen.)
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To: libbylu
Pollster.com does use ARG, and apparently partly as a result, it has McCain up by 3 in FL.


44 posted on 01/25/2008 9:18:02 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: Norman Bates

Go no clear front runner.
Yay deadlock
Brokered convention Rah rah rah!
Discard the four liberal jokers and draw a new hand.


45 posted on 01/25/2008 9:21:13 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck is the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aren't going.)
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Good night, y’all. I away for now.


46 posted on 01/25/2008 9:24:23 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates
Whoever designed his campaign strategy seriously miscalculated.

It wasn't his campaign strategy that has done him in, but his UBER-LIBERAL past, and the fact that he has very little core conservative values and principles.
47 posted on 01/25/2008 9:25:53 PM PST by SoConPubbie
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To: Norman Bates

“If Rudy backers sense he can’t make it, there may be a mass defection”

Why would they defect to the guy who couldn’t admit to saying he didnt know much about the economy????

I guess these retirees dont care about the destruction of the economy, eh?

Proamnesty-antiBushtaxcuts-proCO2caps-CFR-RINO John McCain delenda est!


48 posted on 01/25/2008 9:34:44 PM PST by WOSG (Proamnesty-antiBushtaxcuts-proCO2caps-CFR-RINO John McCain delenda est!)
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To: Norman Bates
Remember how off the polls were in NH for the Dem primary?

If Rudy doesn't win FL, my prediction is that he will do FAR better than is being prognosticated.

49 posted on 01/25/2008 9:35:11 PM PST by what's up
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To: Plutarch

The only GOOD news from the poll is that ARG is cr*P so who knows what is going on ...


50 posted on 01/25/2008 9:36:48 PM PST by WOSG (Proamnesty-antiBushtaxcuts-proCO2caps-CFR-RINO John McCain delenda est!)
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