Posted on 01/28/2008 12:43:07 PM PST by Plutarch
January 28, 2008 — The seesawing race between John McCain and Mitt Romney is starting to make Florida dizzy. Since our last poll Saturday showed a dead-even tie, McCain has now inched ahead. Our InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll from Sunday night showed this:
John McCain (28%)
Mitt Romney (27%)
Rudy Giuliani (16%)
Mike Huckabee (13%)
Ron Paul (4%)
Other (3%)
Undecided (9%)
The poll sampled 789 registered Florida voters who have already voted by early or absentee in the Florida Republican presidential primary, or who plan to vote on Election Day, Tuesday, Jan. 29. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.
The data have been weighted for age, gender, race, party affiliation and geographical distribution across Florida.
Has Gov. Charlie Crist’s endorsement of John McCain on Saturday had an effect on the race? Mostly likely, yes, although it’s hard to tell for sure because so few voters have been making up their minds over the past several days. The way to tell that is by looking at the lower tier candidates like Giuliani and Huckabee. Their support has barely moved in the past week. Only McCain’s and Romney’s have, but even theirs by only a little.
Romney had been trending ahead for a few days until Crist’s dramatic endorsement Saturday, but now that’s at least stopped for a day, and perhaps has swung momentum a tad to McCain. The race is well within the margin of error, however.
Both sides are working feverishly, of course. Perhaps the most telling development since Crist’s endorsement has been the public statement by former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense, R-Panama City, that he’s been flooded with phone calls from staunch Republicans who are reacting angrily to Crist’s endorsement of McCain – a backlash, in other words.
Is that strictly true, or is that Bense trying to issue instructions to the faithful? Bense long ago endorsed Romney.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush also has made a carefully worded statement questioning the wisdom of Crist’s endorsement.
This all means what we’ve known all along – that the GOP establishment, both inside and outside of Florida, is in a panic that the voters may choose someone the establishment elites haven’t checked off on first.
The “undecided” category in the poll (9%) is probably exaggerated. If voters haven’t yet decided who to vote for, many of them likely will stay home from the polls.
They might want to think again. They’re probably the ones who will decide this race.
Hope they are wrong... All true Republicans get out and vote!
intrade is also going for mccain now
A 1 point move, not 1%.
Most other polls are showing Romney pulling away in the last 48 hours.
Pray for a McCain defeat folks.
Romney may not be anything to crow about.
But man folks. McCain?
God help us.
I would give Romney, Paul and Huckabee a few points, and take away a few from McCain and Rudy on a weekend poll, based on who is home and answers the phone on weekends. You can adjust a poll for age but they don’t adjust a poll for shut-ins. McCains base is the the shut-in crowd.
“Brokered convention please.”
How often does that happen?
Anyone know?
Is it a real possiblity?
Or is it like hoping the Easter Bunny will save us?
The value of the endorsements to McCain were GOTV on Tuesday. Crist and Martinez know where McCain’s voters are since McCain really doesn’t know.
I hope Florida doesn’t make me stay home.
If McCain gets this nomination, not only will I stay home, but I am done with the GOP.
No brokered convention.
It won’t happen, and if it did, it would result in a McCain-Huckabee ticket, guaranteed.
See, it’s already a two man race, and so for this to happen it would mean both Romney and McCain would need to be below 1,191 delegates, with Huckabee holding the remainder. After first ballots, Huckabee would deliver his delegates to McCain, putting him over the top, in exchange for the VP spot.
Wishing for a brokered convention in hopes of any other outcome would be like hoping the Super Bowl ends in a tie and the Miami Dolphins are declared the champions.
Party affiliation? Correct me if I’m mistaken, but isn’t Florida a closed primary? Why are they adjusting data for something that shouldn’t make a difference (in other words, the sample should be 100% Republicans, any respondent that isn’t should be removed the data pool).
this says registered voters not likely voters. unreliable, and I don’t give a damn in RCP uses it.
Easter Bunny. see #12 above.
If the poll on saturday showed a dead even race this 1% movement could well be just a statistical glitch.
Intrade just follows the latest polls and conventional wisdom. It's a pitiful excuse for a market.
yes but this is florida. cubans, seniors and people who appreciate his military service will go for mccain. Also, Romney isn’t exactly the clearest conservative in the race and not as well known.
Liberal, senile and angry is no way to go thru life, son.
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