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Unspinning Karl Rove's pro-McCain math (vanity)
February 13, 2008 | Kurt Evans

Posted on 02/13/2008 12:04:20 AM PST by Kurt Evans

There'll be 2,380 total delegates selected for the national convention, and a candidate will need the votes of 1,191 of them to win the nomination. If no candidate secures that number of votes during the primaries, the nominee will be determined at the convention.

According to CNN's estimates, McCain has 812 of 1331 delegates committed so far and therefore needs 379 of the remaining 1049 (36.1 percent) to secure the nomination.

According to the AP's estimates, he has 821 of 1364 committed so far and needs 370 of the remaining 1016 (36.4 percent).

According to ABC's estimates, he has 819 of 1362 committed so far and needs 372 of the remaining 1018 (36.5 percent).

According to RCP's estimates, he has 797 of 1336 committed so far and needs 394 of the remaining 1044 (37.7 percent).

This means Governor Huckabee only needs about 64 percent of the remaining delegates to force an open convention. Winning 64 percent of the delegates doesn't require winning 64 percent of the votes, since the states generally weight their allocations of delegates disproportionately in favor of the winner.

I don't believe McCain can beat Obama, and I'm not sure America would be better off in the long run if he did. I believe wise conservatives will use any ethical means at their disposal to drive McCain out of the race.

There's plenty of time to turn this thing around. Real conservatives aren't quitters.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; anyonebutmccain; barackobama; delegatemath; delegates; elections; gop; huckabee; johnmccain; karlrove; liberal; liberalvalues; mccain; mikehuckabee; openconvention; rino
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Congressman Duncan Hunter's endorsement of Governor Huckabee
is helping to bring defense and border conservatives on board:

"I got to know Governor Huckabee well on the campaign trail," said Hunter...
"Mike Huckabee is a man of outstanding character and integrity."

Huckabee - Hunter '08

1 posted on 02/13/2008 12:04:22 AM PST by Kurt Evans
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CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R

New York Times and Associated Press:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html

ABC:
http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/delegates

Real Clear Politics:
http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html


2 posted on 02/13/2008 12:05:15 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: All

“The longer I live, the more convincing proofs I see of this truth: that God governs the affairs of man [Romans 8:28]. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice [Matthew 10:29], is it probable that an empire can rise without His aid? We have been assured in the Sacred Writings that except the Lord build the house, they labor in vain that build it [Psalms 127:1]. I firmly believe this. I also believe that, without His concurring aid, we shall succeed in this political building no better than the builders of Babel [Genesis 11:1-9].”

—Benjamin Franklin, arguing the need for prayer at the Constitutional Convention


3 posted on 02/13/2008 12:06:22 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans
There's plenty of time to turn this thing around.

All you have to do is find a candidate conservatives can rally 'round.

4 posted on 02/13/2008 12:13:27 AM PST by Rudder
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To: Kurt Evans

Huckabee is no better than McCain. He may not be worse, but he isn’t better.


5 posted on 02/13/2008 12:16:37 AM PST by Terpfen (Romney's loss in Florida is a catastrophe.)
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To: Rudder

Candidate comparison:
http://f2a.org/coast2coast/ValuesVoter08Comparison.pdf

Governor Huckabee on the issues:
http://mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Issues.Home


6 posted on 02/13/2008 12:17:22 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans

huck needs 950 of the remaining 1015 votes. and huck is no better than mccain.


7 posted on 02/13/2008 12:18:02 AM PST by libbylu (Ann and I will be campaigning for Hill. Still a MITTen.)
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To: Terpfen

Senator McCain authored McCain-Feingold’s immoral and blatantly unconstitutional restrictions on political free speech, as well as the McCain-Kennedy amnesty bill for illegal aliens. He was one of the “Keating Five” caught up in the ethics scandal of 1989. He supports embryonic stem cell research and opposes a Marriage Protection Amendment to prevent our most liberal states from establishing legal definitions of marriage that vary from the historical meaning of the word.

On the Don Imus show in 2006, Senator McCain said, “I would rather have a clean government than one where, quote, ‘First Amendment rights’ are being respected, that has become corrupt. If I had my choice, I’d rather have the clean government.” Senator McCain apparently believes it’s possible for a government to forbid free speech and still be “clean”...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=zfq9DPuMX1A


8 posted on 02/13/2008 12:19:09 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Terpfen

The drubbing Huckabee would take in the general election would be worse than McCain’s, however.


9 posted on 02/13/2008 12:19:33 AM PST by Koschei
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To: libbylu

http://argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080208/COLUMNISTS0102/802080318/1157/VOICES08

When John Draper wrote a book on President Bush last year, he focused on a number of areas involving Daschle. Most relevant today is the assessment of the political connection between Daschle and McCain and the mention of a Daschle visit to McCain’s Arizona ranch.

Daschle’s objective, wrote Draper: “To see if perhaps he could make an honest Democrat out of him (McCain). Depending on which staff you believed, Daschle either came very close to succeeding or never had a chance to begin with. Nonetheless, the flirtation did not go unnoticed by the White House.”

When reviewing the book, I asked Daschle about Draper’s comments.

“It is true that we were once close to bringing John McCain into the caucus. There are many who can verify that,” Daschle said.

http://argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080208/COLUMNISTS0102/802080318/1157/VOICES08


10 posted on 02/13/2008 12:21:35 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans

Romney was always the other choice. When he dropped, McCain become the nominee.


11 posted on 02/13/2008 12:22:29 AM PST by Dragonspirit (Mitt basher in 2012: What happened? I thought bashing Romney would move the party rightward? Oh no!)
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To: Kurt Evans
Being that you quoted so much scripture I'm guessing you are a Bible Christian. If so no matter what happens even if it is really bad, it will be in God's will. We know by prophecy that we are very close to the last days and the good old USA is not mentioned at all in those last days prophecy which tells me that something bad is coming our way. It just may be His will that Liberals take over our nation to help get us to where He wants us.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying to do nothing and just let things happen. We need to fight for Conservatism but His will will be done in the end. If you are not a born again Christian you wont understand a thing I've said. Maranatha

12 posted on 02/13/2008 12:23:49 AM PST by fish hawk (The religion of Darwinism = Monkey Intellect)
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To: Kurt Evans
And the Huckster never proposed lowering taxes or reducing the size of the Arkansas state government, merely expanding it and increasing taxes, becoming increasingly beholden to the teacher’s union in the state as he funneled hundreds of millions into fat pensions and benefits programs while doing virtually nothing to actually increase in-class spending.

No sale. There are few ways to make McCain look good, putting him up against the Huckster is one way.

13 posted on 02/13/2008 12:24:01 AM PST by kingu (Party for rent - conservative opinions not required.)
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To: Kurt Evans

” He was one of the “Keating Five” caught up in the ethics scandal of 1989.”

Eeeh... This one gets canceled out by Huckabee’s own ethical violations. What was the count? 14? Yadda...yadda...yadda...


14 posted on 02/13/2008 12:24:36 AM PST by Koschei
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To: Koschei

“The drubbing Huckabee would take in the general election would be worse than McCain’s, however.”

That’s absurd:

“I am deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, voted for embryonic stem-cell research to kill nascent human beings, opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, has little regard for freedom of speech, organized the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters in judicial hearings, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language.

“I am convinced Sen. McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are. He has sounded at times more like a member of the other party. McCain actually considered leaving the GOP caucus in 2001, and approached John Kerry about being Kerry’s running mate in 2004. McCain also said publicly that Hillary Clinton would make a good president.”

—Dr. James Dobson

http://www.citizenlink.org/CLtopstories/A000006444.cfm


15 posted on 02/13/2008 12:25:48 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans

Yes, I’m well aware of how badly McCain sucks. The issue is that you are not aware that Huckabee sucks just as much.

I don’t need copy-pasted form replies, thank you.


16 posted on 02/13/2008 12:27:08 AM PST by Terpfen (Romney's loss in Florida is a catastrophe.)
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To: Kurt Evans

That disproves the statement? Seriously...how?


17 posted on 02/13/2008 12:27:15 AM PST by Koschei
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To: Dragonspirit

“Romney was always the other choice. When he dropped, McCain become the nominee.”

Senator McCain and Governor Romney:
A wolf and a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=2fDUCPfDJiM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=eBRjSe8WvfQ
http://youtube.com/watch?v=a9IJUkYUbvI
http://youtube.com/watch?v=P_w9pquznG4

“Mitt Romney was probably the most pro-abortion and pro-gay rights
Republican official in the nation for the last decade.” —Human Events

http://www.observer.com/2007/mitt-romneys-convenient-truths

Report on the “pro-life” views of Governor Mitt Romney:
http://massresistance.org/romney/prolife.html


18 posted on 02/13/2008 12:28:26 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans

OK. Duncan Hunter.


19 posted on 02/13/2008 12:30:59 AM PST by TigersEye (This is the age of the death of reason.)
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To: Terpfen

“He may not be worse, but he isn’t better.”

HILLARY is better than McCain for God’s sake...


20 posted on 02/13/2008 12:32:01 AM PST by babygene (Never look into the laser with your last good eye...)
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It is hilarious reading “ McCain can’t beat Obama.”

If that is so, it applies a hundred fold to Huck.

He can’t win a single electoral vote outside the South and maybe a few border states.

And he would not sweep the South either.

And he would hurt candidates down the ticket as well.

21 posted on 02/13/2008 12:33:05 AM PST by Reaganez
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To: libbylu

“huck needs 950 of the remaining 1015 votes.”

He can win far fewer delegates and still force an open convention.


22 posted on 02/13/2008 12:34:02 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans

Huckabee wouldn’t be the nominee out of a brokered convention.

Most likely McCain would still be the nominee, but with a VP choice forced up on him.


23 posted on 02/13/2008 12:35:44 AM PST by Terpfen (Romney's loss in Florida is a catastrophe.)
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To: babygene

I think I’d have to agree. Scary.


24 posted on 02/13/2008 12:37:36 AM PST by TigersEye (This is the age of the death of reason.)
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To: Kurt Evans

As I see it, you need to drink less and get out more.


25 posted on 02/13/2008 12:38:12 AM PST by Steve_Stifler
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To: Kurt Evans
Anyone who thinks that Huckabee has a chance at this stage, is praying for a miracle. Let’s say, I would not put money on such a long shot. And, with the stakes so high, I would not be gambling too much. The DemonRATs have communism ready to spring on this Nation if we don’t play our cards right.

Let’s get real. McCain is going to be our nominee. Let’s put the frosting on the cake and make the best of it.

Cake anyone?

26 posted on 02/13/2008 12:38:46 AM PST by jonrick46
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To: Kurt Evans

My math says Ross Perot can win


27 posted on 02/13/2008 12:39:36 AM PST by woofie
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: kingu

“And the Huckster never proposed lowering taxes or reducing the size of the Arkansas state government, merely expanding it and increasing taxes ...”

The Cato Institute disagrees:

“Perhaps no current governor has been elevated to the statehouse under stranger circumstances. Huckabee, a Baptist minister, was elected lieutenant governor in 1994. Two and a half years later, Clinton’s heir, Jim Guy Tucker, was convicted of a felony as a result of the Whitewater investigation and was immediately removed from office. In the midst of those tumultuous events, Huckabee became the first Republican governor of Arkansas in recent memory.

“Upon taking office in July 1996, Huckabee immediately backed a 1/8-cent sales tax hike to fund the Games and Fishing Commission and the Department of Parks and Tourism. The voters enacted that hike as a constitutional amendment in November 1996. In his first budget, however, he redeemed himself by proposing a sweeping overhaul of Arkansas’s archaic income tax system. The $80 million tax cut package was enacted in 1997 and became the first broad-based state tax cut in more than 20 years. It increased the standard deduction, eliminated the income tax ‘marriage penalty,’ and indexed the state tax brackets for inflation.”


29 posted on 02/13/2008 12:43:10 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Terpfen

“I don’t need copy-pasted form replies, thank you.”

For the record, I wrote that myself.


30 posted on 02/13/2008 12:45:52 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans

Lipstick on a pig - those reforms were well on their way to maturity in the inherited budget that Huckabee had when he took office. Again, no sale.


31 posted on 02/13/2008 12:47:24 AM PST by kingu (Party for rent - conservative opinions not required.)
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To: Koschei

“That disproves the statement?”

No, but it supports my assertion that the statement is absurd.


32 posted on 02/13/2008 12:47:24 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Terpfen

“Most likely McCain would still be the nominee, but with a VP choice forced up on him.”

If McCain fails to close the deal after holding his current lead in the delegate count, I don’t believe he’s going to be nominated in an open convention.


33 posted on 02/13/2008 12:52:18 AM PST by Kurt Evans (This message not approved by any candidate or candidate's committee.)
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To: Kurt Evans

Hah. Quoting Dobson somehow supports your claim that it is absurd to think that Huckabee would get drubbed in November?

Oooookay. Sorry to break it to you, but it does no such thing.

Dobson decrees and the nation follows, eh? Perhaps in your little kingdom of delusion.


34 posted on 02/13/2008 12:57:46 AM PST by Koschei
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To: Kurt Evans

Huckabee does seem better n border control and illegal immigration. The problem with the fence is that after next January it will be impossible to get anything further through Congress and what there may already be in the works will be defunded. We have to count on a Republican president, and McCain is NOT that man, to further encourage the states to disinvite the illegals the way some states are beginning to do now, enforced penalties on employers and constant harassment. It works and is ever so much cheaper than trying to round them up and ship them to Mexico.


35 posted on 02/13/2008 12:58:15 AM PST by arthurus
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To: Kurt Evans
1.Are you aware that Tyson’s Political Action Committee has endorsed and supported Huckabee?

2.Radical Islam is taking over the world. Time is short.

3.Hillary or Obama will withdraw and that means surrender in the eyes of Radical Islam.

4.Hillary or Obama are both open borders, socialist, Globalists.

5.The New World Order is an inplan event.

6.McCain will serve us best with regard to Radical Islam. McCain will do what he thinks is best for the country. All you have to do is convince him. He is most likely going to be the next President. My advice is for conservatives to begin doing something constructive instead of burning your bridges.

Easy Does It

36 posted on 02/13/2008 12:58:49 AM PST by eazdzit (ISLAM is not a religion, If a country practices Sharia Law, they are against us.)
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To: Terpfen

there are two killer policies that Republicans are playing with this cycle, Amnesty and Global Warming. Global Warming legislation will kick the economy in the gut or at least put leg-irons on it. Amnesty will legalize many millions of new Democrats and turn us into a UN ruled European socialist society in short order. Huckabee is better than McCain on that one, at least. While he wants to be nice to the ones that are here I don’t think he will move to legalize them and he will do what he can to control the border. McC wants to make Democrat voters out of all the ones that are here now and by extension the many millions more that will flood across the border when Amnesty appears to be close and real. It may even look like the Palestinians taking out the Gaza-Sinai fence but the Mexicans and others won’t just buy some stuff and go home. The Mexican government is quite capable of organizing a Gaza event. If it should happen with the Clintons as president or Obama would they be able to use the military effectively against the invasion? Or would they just smile, knowing that they will rule Aztlan for life.


37 posted on 02/13/2008 1:08:54 AM PST by arthurus
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To: eazdzit
McCain will do what he thinks is best for the country. All you have to do is convince him.

One of these thoughts is not like the other, and that, my friend, is the problem.

38 posted on 02/13/2008 1:43:59 AM PST by browardchad
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To: Terpfen

Baseless and of course, wrong.


39 posted on 02/13/2008 1:46:43 AM PST by unspun (Mike Huckabee: Government's job is "protect us, not have to provide for us." Duncan Hunter knows.)
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To: eazdzit

See the WorldNetDaily article on McCain’s Soros-funded group?


40 posted on 02/13/2008 1:48:16 AM PST by unspun (Mike Huckabee: Government's job is "protect us, not have to provide for us." Duncan Hunter knows.)
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To: All
Come November I am voting "R" regardless of who is our candidate, no temper tantrums for me threatening to stay home and not vote because my choice in the primary came in 6th place.

The election is too important to throw away. < /rant >

41 posted on 02/13/2008 1:59:23 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave ("We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." Hillary Clinton, June 2004.)
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To: eazdzit

a serious question:

Do you support George Soros’ agenda?
Because John McCain *does*.

John McCain: George Soros’ Useful Idiot?
http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/30556.html

Reform Institute donor list, (includes the Tides foundation):
http://reforminstitute.org/about/AboutDonors.aspx

Sen. McCain: past Chairman of the Reform Institute, funded by George Soros’ Tide Foundation:
http://www.reforminstitute.org/about/about.aspx


42 posted on 02/13/2008 2:00:37 AM PST by FBD ("I am sure that Senator Clinton would make a good president," ~ John McCain on NBC's "Meet the Press)
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To: Kurt Evans
first i apologize for not reading any blogs on this article before i type.

i just saw a see-BS brief about mcQueeg congratulating himself taking three

primary runs. mc Queeg went to senator john warner and laid his head on

the senator’s shoulder like he was daddy. i realize he is exhausted for the

day but how can he be expected to handle the football when the chips are

down? my point is that huck needs more pay pal today.

43 posted on 02/13/2008 2:09:28 AM PST by machenation ("it can't happen here" Frank Zappa)
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To: Kurt Evans

McCain can beat Obama, if he runs the campaign RIGHT. And by RIGHT I mean it in two ways.

Right: correct in its focus on the weaknesses of Hussein.
Right: to the conservative side of the political spectrum.

A majority of us don’t want McCain at the head of the ticket. But he is going to be at the head of the ticket, barring a major event. If that “major event” happens, we can deal with that when it happens. But let’s live in the real world for now.

McCain, in order to do the #1, McCain needs to be relentless on Hussein’s liberal stands—both in the U.S. Senate, when he was a state legislator, and at other times in his life. In that order.

As for #2, McCain must put a solid conservative on his ticket...someone YOUNG enough that the base will look to him or her for future leadership. And McCain must reach out, in honesty, to the conservative base. People like me need to be convinced he can and will govern effectively.

The guy is tough on spending: he needs to ‘splain how he is going to fight against an overwhelmingly liberal Congress.

That is how I see it.

RD


44 posted on 02/13/2008 2:09:56 AM PST by Recovering_Democrat ((I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of Dependence on Government!))
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To: Kurt Evans

Thanks for breaking down the numbers. Huck has a chance to force a brokered convention.

I have some disagreements w Huck on some issues...but he is by far better than McCain. With Duncan Hunter now supporting him (a man I have total respect for)...I am convinced Huck will be strong on illegal alien issues

McCain by no means is a sure lock. Also, the drivel that “we must support McCain” is driving me nuts


45 posted on 02/13/2008 2:40:31 AM PST by UCFRoadWarrior (UCFRW On McCain: "You can remove the stink-shooter from a skunk's butt....but it's still a skunk")
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To: eazdzit

6.McCain will serve us best with regard to Radical Islam.


Hmm...closing Gitmo and no waterboarding terrorists...yeah right he will be tougher...jeez

Cant believe the pandering for MythCain going on here


46 posted on 02/13/2008 2:43:49 AM PST by UCFRoadWarrior (UCFRW On McCain: "You can remove the stink-shooter from a skunk's butt....but it's still a skunk")
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To: arthurus
The Huckster hopped right over the border and gave the Mexican gov’t a consulate in Little Rock, AK for the sum of ONE DOLLAR. His oft repeated line about not punishing the “chill’un” because of their illegal parents is in relation to his free tuition offer. Huckster has so many things wrong with him, but the illegal issue is one of the easiest to point out.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=58430

47 posted on 02/13/2008 3:40:12 AM PST by ishabibble (ALL-AMERICAN INFIDEL)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

Honestly, I think Obama is a phantom.

All talk, no substance.

His supporters are in love with the ‘idea’ of him, not him.

McCain will have his work cut out for him, assuming Obama is the opponent, because Obama can talk for 30 minutes and never really say anything.

It is difficult to contrast yourself when the opponent has no definitive position.


48 posted on 02/13/2008 3:54:28 AM PST by RangerM (Jesus is the only perfect Christian)
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To: Kurt Evans; P-Marlowe; Jim Robinson; pissant; Sun; Calpernia

I believe that McCain can beat Obama. That isn’t the issue, though. The issue is splitting the vote.

With everyone voting still for 3 - 5 names, the probability of McCain receiving the lion’s share of those votes increases.

Some absolutely hate Huckabee. I’m not in that crowd. The same with Paul, Keyes, or Romney.....all of whose names might be on the ballot in any particular state.

What is obvious was made clear in the Washington primary last weekend. McCain won the primary and (eventually) the delegates with 25% of the vote. In other words, SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT of the primary voters in the Republican primary voted AGAINST McCain.

With that kind of opposition, it’s unimaginable that McCain would walk out of that with all those delegates. But he did.

Because the vote was split.

There will be no taking this vote to the convention if there isn’t an agreement on one candidate to vote for.


49 posted on 02/13/2008 3:59:04 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: Kurt Evans

I don’t believe McCain can beat him either. People are in an anti-DC mood. McCain is the epitome of DC and he is old. Obama is anti-DC and young.


50 posted on 02/13/2008 4:14:11 AM PST by AdaGray
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