Skip to comments.How John McCain may still lose the nomination (Huckabee's delegate math)
Posted on 02/22/2008 11:27:13 PM PST by Kurt Evans
The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won't say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.
Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain's column will be unbound delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot...
The McCain camp thinks the "mathematically impossible" rhetorical ploy will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public, who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works...
McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him...
There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 804 delegates (and 18 of these are unbound delegates who are still able to change their mind), then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.
Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387... Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain...
McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1,191 in the remaining states.
Now here's the math ...
Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound!
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound!
North Carolina - 69 bound
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound
There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1,191 bound delegates.
Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen...
The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.
Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.
So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn't have enough bound delegates. But more likely, if he falls short of 1191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate ...
The New York Times count has only allocated 34 of Wisconsin’s delegates, but assume all 37 pledged delegates go to McCain. According to the numbers above, that would leave him needing 358 of 524 remaining bound delegates (just over 68%) to guarantee nomination on the convention’s first ballot. What concerns me is that liberal journalists and members of the Republican establishment seem to be succeeding in brainwashing Republican voters. Scott “McCain” Rasmu-spin’s daily tracking poll showed McCain’s lead narrowing from 31 points (55%-24%) to 12 points (45%-33%) from February 9-13. As of Friday it was back to 53%-29%:
Governor Huckabee is showing remarkable staying power considering the way the media is presenting—or rather not presenting—the race.
Duncan Hunter has been our choice from Day 1.........so sorry he's out........:(
I am still confused about this but based upon what Ive read you are correct. Anyone can be drafted it seems. Fine mess we find ourselves in this year.
The wimp arsed GOP will be screwed for the next 8 years. And they have only themselves to blame.
FReepmail me to be on/off the MIKE HUCKABEE FOR PRESIDENT Ping List.
I hate to be a party pooper, but this is simply asking for the law of unintended consequences. Huckabee is a fool, and we’re not going to miraculously get one of our “real conservatives” through some trick-of-the-light fantasy.
Huckabee isn’t doing anyone, any favors, except himself.
State of the Presidential Primary Race
Posted by Robert Drobot to WOSG
On News/Activism 01/19/2008 8:11:03 PM PST · 5 of 74
How about a McCain/Hunter ticket!?!?!
This is now.....
A ticket that would get 100% of my support : registration; door to door; telephone bank; get out the vote....and the use of the greatest weapon I have....prayer!!!
America needs these two Americans to lead us out of the international, economic, and domestic insanity traps traitors within Congress who have violated their oaths of office have purposely created for the future of this wonderful country and the protection of our God inspired Constitution!!!
Well, they keep telling us to back McCain - that it could be worse.
I guess they are right.
If Huckabee held a press conference this weekend, and stated for all to hear, that Duncan Hunter would be his running mate.
That just might change things...
In fact, it would change this poster’s mind immediately.
Duncan Hunter should be the Republican nominee!
“A ticket that would get 100% of my support : registration; door to door; telephone bank; get out the vote....and the use of the greatest weapon I have....prayer!!!”
Help from Jesus is the key:
The longer I live, the more convincing proofs I see of this truth: that God governs the affairs of man [Romans 8:28]. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice [Matthew 10:29], is it probable that an empire can rise without His aid? We have been assured in the Sacred Writings that except the Lord build the house, they labor in vain that build it [Psalms 127:1]. I firmly believe this. I also believe that, without His concurring aid, we shall succeed in this political building no better than the builders of Babel [Genesis 11:1-9].
Benjamin Franklin, arguing the need for prayer at the Constitutional Convention
Looks like a derivitive of Farakan’s Math Made Simple to me.
I got to know more than a few girl-friends over a month or so and thought I knew them too. Boy was I wrong.
Nobody has more to feel good about than the Huckabee supporters, he isn’t going to win but you should enjoy every minute of his extraordinary race.
Huckster has till March 10th to make a decision about running for the Senate. If he doesn’t pull out of this thing by then I believe he is in it for the long haul.
Hey, if it goes to convention maybe Duncan Hunter will get drafted.
” I got to know more than a few girl-friends over a month or so and thought I knew them too. Boy was I wrong.”
Duncan Hunter has a very public biography, it could be that he is better at judging a fellow republican office holder of 14 years, and an opponent for the presidency and perhaps even men in general.
Is it April the First already?
Fair enough Ansel, but Huckabee’s record is out there and I’m not seeing anything I can support there. I know a number of you do, and I encourage you to do so if that’s your take on it.