How John McCain may still lose the nomination (Huckabee's delegate math)

The Forerunner Forum (FL) ^ | February 14, 2008 | Jay Rogers

[Kurt Evans]

The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won't say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.

Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain's column will be unbound delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot...

The McCain camp thinks the "mathematically impossible" rhetorical ploy will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public, who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works...

McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him...

There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 804 delegates (and 18 of these are unbound delegates who are still able to change their mind), then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.

Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387... Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain...

McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1,191 in the remaining states.

Now here's the math ...

Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound!
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound!
North Carolina - 69 bound
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound

There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1,191 bound delegates.

Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen...

The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.

Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.

So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn't have enough bound delegates. But more likely, if he falls short of 1191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate ...

[torchthemummy]

Heck let's learn from the homos themselves!... Look what the have accomplished with such a tiny percentage… and all because they have been united in purpose… Look at the Blacks… You see them all over the place on TV now :) ... probably electing the first Black president in this country… I would say that IS success.

I don't think that emulating the exclusionary tactics/goals of "homos" and "blacks" is exactly a conservative view. Conservatives believe in retaining individual rights, not promoting group rights.

[torchthemummy]

...crossover outsider appeal...Yeah right.

[torchthemummy]

...crossover outsider appeal...

Yeah right.

[BamaBelle]

Thank you for further confirmation of what my research had already showed me. Several weeks ago I was home with the flu and spent about 3 days researching Huckabee. Once I got past all the propaganda about him (and I did LOTS of research), he was my candidate and got my vote and my support.

For the few that still have open minds for research, check out this report on The Club for Growth’s attacks on Huckabee:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/242/

Plus, politifact may open some eyes about who has been lying the most...

[MrPiper]

"McCain pretty much has the nomination in the bag."

I don't care how much the MSM says this, I refuse to vote for the Democrats!

[Finalapproach29er]

Romans 13?

I interpret it as God choosing our leaders by moving our spirt.

Maybe we don’t have free will at all.

[Gargantua]

Amen. If McCain wins, it might as well have gone to Hillary. Pray for Huckabee.

;-/

[Gargantua]

"I interpret it as God choosing our leaders by moving our spirt."

God moves your spirt? That's sick.

All kidding aside, if the Bible says we have free will, then it's true. The Bible has made 2,400 predictions over the last 4,000 years, and has never been wrong once.

If we had no free will, how could so many flaming imbeciles choose to believe in Evolution, or turn their backs on God and opt for eternity in Hell?

Free will ain't free, Pally.

;-/

[BamaBelle]

I have a theory. If Obama wins, the Hillary supporters are going to be just like many here who have seen their candidates drop out and vice versa if Hillary wins. I think the Republicans can pick up a good bit of the disgruntled vote (although they would never admit it in public).

If Obama wins, I doubt it would help the Republicans as much as if Hillary wins. If Hillary wins, Huckabee could pick up a lot of the black vote. He does quite well in that segment of the voting population. He would have a much better chance at picking up those votes than McCain.

Also, despite media spewing it non-stop, Huckabee has a lot more support than just from evangelicals. He came in 2nd in Alaska (with Romney winning, and McCain coming in last) and that is not a great bastion of evangelical southern redneck hicks last time I checked. I was actually surprised that he came in 2nd in the caucus in Wa. St. because that is not exactly redneck evangelical territory either.

Maybe some of you need to re-think and research exactly who is voting for Huckabee. Quite a few fair-taxers out there too.

[torchthemummy]

Maybe some of you need to re-think and research exactly who is voting for Huckabee. Quite a few fair-taxers out there too.

His core voters have been social conservative evangelicals. Of course he has others demos voting for him but that is his core. And no offense but 1)Alaska is a different world in many ways and 2) the fair tax is absolutely worthless if their is no large contingency of Congressional supporters.

[kindred]

This election is rigged and only those who believe the GOP can still be saved don’t realize that the GOP is destroyed already.

It is time for a conservative run third party and the GOP be damned, let the liberal NE rinos have their corrupt party.

[BamaBelle]

You know, I kinda think the fair tax issue is one of the biggest reasons Huckabee doesn’t have more support and I don’t mean from voters but from the establishment GOP’ers...they don’t want their playhouse messed up with real tax reform.

The Fair Tax is gradually picking up Congressional support and for the record, I was for the Fair Tax before I was a supporter of Huckabee (Boortz listener here). See link:

http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer?pagename=news_scorecard

[kindred]

[Give it up. For all of McCain’s flaws, he is the nominee. And compared to Obama he is George Washington.]

I am offended that you would compare the liberal rino McCain to the great leader and general and preacher and Warrior of the Christian faith and father of our once great and free nation.
The GOP is dead and I am glad the cesspool of liberal rinos will come to its end.

[kindred]

[BTW, I’m not an evangelical, I’m an agnostic; and I disagree with Huckabee on several key issues.]

I’m not an evangelical, I am a Christian who beleives the Bible is true and the GOD of Israel is the Creator of all things in heavens and earth and created mankind on the earth. Evangelical is a new age term for those who like to feel good about themselves and refuse to believe that the Son of God is Jesus Christ. Evangleicals are to Christianity what rinos are to conservatism for the most part and many are blatant liberals.
And, Lord willing, the GOP will split so that conservatives will begin a conservative party with conservative politicians and stop trying to fix the barrel of rotten apples the GOP has become. Also, you have a right to be agnostic but God hates that also as the heavens and the earth declares His glory and men love darkenss rather than light because their deeds are evil.
And agnostics are of those same men.

[Guenevere]

bttt

[Guns are GOOD]

McCain will easily win the nomination.

[deport]

Well I guess one can hope that the man from Hope will get all those unpledged delegates to suddenly drop the tenor of how their state voted and rush over to a less than stellar performance. Hope springs eternal and that is what the Hopester will need.

CLICK for Hope

The Green Papers
Presidential Primaries 2008
Republican Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary

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		Republican Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary Alphabetically by State   2,516 total delegates - 560 base at-large / 1,305 re: 435 congressional districts / 168 party / 483 bonus Pledged/Unpledged delegates: 1,801 pledged, 579 unpledged. Need to nominate: 1,191.
Rank	(sort) State	Huckabee, M (227)		Romney, M (181)		(available) (1,032)		McCain, J (866)		Uncommitted (41)		Paul, R (21)		Hunter, D (1)		Thompson, F (11)		Allocation
		(sort) Pl (204)	(sort) Unpl (23)	(sort) Pl (124)	(sort) Unpl (57)	(sort) Pl (580)	(sort) Unpl (452)	(sort) Pl (848)	(sort) Unpl (18)	(sort) Pl (40)	(sort) Unpl (1)	(sort) Pl (5)	(sort) Unpl (16)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (1)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (11)	(sort) Pl	(sort) Unpl	(sort) Total
1	Alabama	26					3	19										45	3	48
2	Alaska		6		12	0	3		3				5						29	29
3	American Samoa					6	3											6	3	9
4	Arizona						3	50										50	3	53
5	Arkansas	29		1			3	1										31	3	34
6	California			12			3	158										170	3	173
7	Colorado					0	46												46	46
8	Connecticut						3	27										27	3	30
9	Delaware						0	18										18		18
10	District of Columbia						3	16										16	3	19
11	Florida							57										57		57
12	Georgia	51		6		3	0	12										72		72
13	Guam					6	3											6	3	9
14	Hawaii					20	0											20		20
15	Idaho					26	6											26	6	32
16	Illinois			2		1	13	54										57	13	70
17	Indiana					27	30											27	30	57
18	Iowa		13		10		3		5				4				5		40	40
19	Kansas	36							2		1							36	3	39
20	Kentucky					45	0											45		45
21	Louisiana						27			20								20	27	47
22	Maine		1		10	0	3		4				3						21	21
23	Maryland						3	34										34	3	37
24	Massachusetts			22			3	18										40	3	43
25	Michigan	3					0	7		20								30		30
26	Minnesota					0	41												41	41
27	Mississippi					36	3											36	3	39
28	Missouri						0	58										58		58
29	Montana			25			0											25		25
30	Nebraska					30	3											30	3	33
31	Nevada		3		17		3		4				4				3		34	34
32	New Hampshire	1		4			0	7										12		12
33	New Jersey						0	52										52		52
34	New Mexico					29	3											29	3	32
35	New York						14	87										87	14	101
36	North Carolina					69	0											69		69
37	North Dakota	5		8			3	5				5						23	3	26
38	Northern Marianas					0	9												9	9
39	Ohio					0	88												88	88
40	Oklahoma	6					3	32										38	3	41
41	Oregon					27	3											27	3	30
42	Pennsylvania					0	74												74	74
43	Puerto Rico					20	3											20	3	23
44	Rhode Island					17	3											17	3	20
45	South Carolina	6					0	18										24		24
46	South Dakota					24	3											24	3	27
47	Tennessee	23		8		6	3	15										52	3	55
48	Texas					137	3											137	3	140
49	Utah			36			0											36		36
50	Vermont					17	0											17		17
51	Virgin Islands					6	3											6	3	9
52	Virginia						0	63										63		63
53	Washington					13	21	6										19	21	40
54	West Virginia	18				9	3											27	3	30
55	Wisconsin					6		34										40		40
56	Wyoming				8	0	2								1		3		14	14
Convention		204	23	124	57	580	452	848	18	40	1	5	16	0	1	0	11	1,801	579	2,380

 

Pl: Pledged or Bound Delegates.
Unpl: Unpledged or Not Bound Delegates

 

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[rintense]

Pride cometh before the fall.

[dirtboy]

Looks like a derivitive of Farakan’s Math Made Simple to me.

Don't bother telling them that Mitt Romney has asked his delegates to vote for McCain. After all, it wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor - they're on a roll...

[ChessExpert]

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