Skip to comments.How John McCain may still lose the nomination (Huckabee's delegate math)
Posted on 02/22/2008 11:27:13 PM PST by Kurt Evans
The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won't say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.
Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain's column will be unbound delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot...
The McCain camp thinks the "mathematically impossible" rhetorical ploy will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public, who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works...
McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him...
There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 804 delegates (and 18 of these are unbound delegates who are still able to change their mind), then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.
Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387... Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain...
McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1,191 in the remaining states.
Now here's the math ...
Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound!
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound!
North Carolina - 69 bound
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound
There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1,191 bound delegates.
Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen...
The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.
Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.
So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn't have enough bound delegates. But more likely, if he falls short of 1191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate ...
This election is rigged and only those who believe the GOP can still be saved don’t realize that the GOP is destroyed already.
It is time for a conservative run third party and the GOP be damned, let the liberal NE rinos have their corrupt party.
You know, I kinda think the fair tax issue is one of the biggest reasons Huckabee doesn’t have more support and I don’t mean from voters but from the establishment GOP’ers...they don’t want their playhouse messed up with real tax reform.
The Fair Tax is gradually picking up Congressional support and for the record, I was for the Fair Tax before I was a supporter of Huckabee (Boortz listener here). See link:
[Give it up. For all of McCains flaws, he is the nominee. And compared to Obama he is George Washington.]
I am offended that you would compare the liberal rino McCain to the great leader and general and preacher and Warrior of the Christian faith and father of our once great and free nation.
The GOP is dead and I am glad the cesspool of liberal rinos will come to its end.
[BTW, I’m not an evangelical, I’m an agnostic; and I disagree with Huckabee on several key issues.]
I’m not an evangelical, I am a Christian who beleives the Bible is true and the GOD of Israel is the Creator of all things in heavens and earth and created mankind on the earth. Evangelical is a new age term for those who like to feel good about themselves and refuse to believe that the Son of God is Jesus Christ. Evangleicals are to Christianity what rinos are to conservatism for the most part and many are blatant liberals.
And, Lord willing, the GOP will split so that conservatives will begin a conservative party with conservative politicians and stop trying to fix the barrel of rotten apples the GOP has become. Also, you have a right to be agnostic but God hates that also as the heavens and the earth declares His glory and men love darkenss rather than light because their deeds are evil.
And agnostics are of those same men.
McCain will easily win the nomination.
Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary
Alphabetically by State
2,516 total delegates - 560 base at-large / 1,305 re: 435 congressional districts / 168 party / 483 bonus
Pledged/Unpledged delegates: 1,801 pledged, 579 unpledged.
Need to nominate: 1,191.
|10||District of Columbia||3||16||16||3||19|
Pl: Pledged or Bound Delegates.
Pride cometh before the fall.
Don't bother telling them that Mitt Romney has asked his delegates to vote for McCain. After all, it wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor - they're on a roll...
This was a test of the emergency browser system.
yup. I’d rather see Huck too.
He supports abolishing the income tax and the IRS for the Fair Tax. Enough reason for me to support him.
California's out of play no matter who the nominee is. It's out of play because the prior amnesty, combined with illegal immigration, has flooded the state with leftist foreigners. California went Republican in every presidential race from 1952 to 1988, except for the 1964 LBJ landslide. But once the effects of the Reagan era amnesty began to be felt, it's gone Democrat in every election since. That's four times in a row. One more amnesty and the state will be as heavily Democrat as Massachusetts, with the GOP down to single digits in the legislature.
Just based on the initial post, let’s give Huckabee Texas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Kentucky. That is 293 of the 371 Kurt stated Huckabee needs to block McCain. Not enough. If you have a more detailed analysis of what states Huckabee will win and the delegates he will receive, I would be interested in seeing it.
I don’t have an analysis..... The above table I posted had the states showing how they voted or which ones hadn’t voted to date. I”m not sure the Hopester will win Texas. He may win a few delegates as it’s winner take all by CD and Statewide but I don’t see a sweep.
|The Green Papers
2008 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions
Presidential Nominating Process
39th Republican National Convention: Monday 1 September - Thursday 4 September 2008
| 2,380 total delegates
(before penalties: 2,516 total delegates - 560 base at-large / 1,305 re: 435 congressional districts / 168 party / 483 bonus)
*The Alternative Soft Total assumes that delegates not currently listed in the Soft Total and/or Hard Total will actually be seated and, thereby, eligible to vote during the Roll Call re: the Presidential Nomination at the National Convention.
From the GOP rule book:
b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
McCain, Romney and Huckabee are the only ones who will qualify on the first ballot. After the first ballot, I guess a majority of delegates from 5 states can draft a new candidate for consideration.
I also take it from this that McCain and other candidates can only suggest a VP preference and none of the delegates are pledged to support the choice. This would theoretically make it difficult for McCain to choose a rino.
One problem though, I was looking at the national delegates from Alabama who were elected a few days ago and it appears that Romney's delegates were split up for McCain and Huckabee to pick half and half. That's how it appeared to me. If that's how all the states choose their delegates then it will be nothing but McCain and Huckabee delegates at the convention and the Romney portion that McCain gets to pick the delegate for will vote for McCain on the first ballot, giving him plenty of delegates to win the thing outright.
Even if McCain dropped out or meets his maker prior to the convention, based on my perception of how it was done in Alabama, all of his selected national delegates would still be there and would probably draft someone like Lindsey Graham to replace him.
If FReepers organized and made it their goal to become the national delegates for the Republicans in all of the states, we could accomplish it. That is why they public isn't informed too openly about how the process works.
I met Mike at the first Freeper Inaugural Ball for Bush in 2000. He was playing bass for the band. He seemed like a good dude.
Following the situation in Arkansas, I realize he took over for the disgraced governor that had to step down.
I was predisposed to like Mike and support him. Then I started noticing folks from Arkansas that were not as favorable to him as I was.
They brought up points that made sense to me. At this point in time, I don’t see Mike as you do.
I appreciate you defending Mike. If you see him as you have described, you should.
I do think Mike has a certain flair that McCain will lack, and agree that he might be a better person in a campaign against the democrat nominee based on that aspect of him.
I don’t necessarily disagree with your take on some of the other candidates. I will admit, I’m not predisposed to sign on to your program with Mike, but that’s okay.
You take care. I appreciate your comments.
LOL. We’re on the same page.
Based upon the following it appears that for a name to be placed in nomination they do need the support of a majority of the delegates from five states. Based upon [e] it appears that that is when/where the horse trading begins between candidates and delegations.
RULE NO. 40
(a) In making the nominations for qPresident of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.
(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall declare that the candidate has been nominated.
(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.
(f) For the 2004 Republican National Convention, notwithstanding any other provision of these rules or any Rule of the House of Representatives, it shall be in the discretion of the Chair to suspend the roll call conducted to nominate the candidate for President of the United States at any time in order to conduct other Convention business under the established order of business.
I see. I had the wrong impression about the Alabama apportionment. I’d still like to know if the states where Romney did win some delegates will select national delegates that have to vote for him on the first ballot since he’s already dropped out but still eligible by winning at least 5 states. I have zero idea about what happens with the delegates the other dropouts won since they won’t be eligible for nomination.
These selected delegates should be getting lots of scrutiny. If any of them can be shown to have had Democrat tendencies in the past, they are supposed to be dismissed and replaced with an alternate I do believe.
I don’t know the details of Romney’s delegates but if I remember correctly the Michigan GOP unbound his delegates. And I think I read where some or most indicated they’d support McCain but they aren’t listed as McCains.
Louisiana had unbound delegates for both their caucus and primary since no candidate won by a majority. Many of the delegates that were selected indicated they would support McCain from what I read after their State Convention even thought Huckabee came in a close 2nd.
Some states such as Nevada where Romney won delegates haven’t had their State Convention to select the delegates. So who knows how they will choose at that point.
Another example is Montana where Romney won all 25 delegates to the National Convention. By Montana rules they are bound to vote for the the caucus winner on the first vote however, the winning candidate is allowed to release the delegates to a different candidate. I’m assuming the release occurred in the following announcement.
Romney endorsement of McCain back on Feb. 14:
CBS/AP) Republican campaign dropout Mitt Romney endorsed John McCain for the party’s presidential nomination and asked his national convention delegates to swing behind the likely nominee.
I didn’t even click on it last night. Didn’t have the time or energy. No offense taken.
I think Huck is a complete shyster. But he’s not McCain.
-BWaaHaaa! ...now there's a ringing endorsement! ;^)
Why would a conservative coalition arise to nominate an even more less conservative candidate?
Noseplugs will work for Huckabee. You’re going to need something in a size 12. ga. with flaming fleshettes or a rusty jihadi knife for McCain.
I have so many knives in my conservative back it’s starting to look like a dart board. It’s actually starting to feel good. Somebody must think we’re a threat to their warped ideology or they wouldn’t be trying to kill us. ; )
Huckabee to Make Guest Spot on First SNL Since Writers’ Strike
[The Times not the only turncoat in NY]
Fox News | February 20, 2008
Posted on 02/20/2008 4:12:07 PM EST by keepitreal
“The former Arkansas governor is not expected to host this weekendâs SNL — that job is reserved for ‘30 Rock’ star and former cast cast member Tina Fey. But a spot on the NBC sketch comedy show will at least give him some extra time in the limelight as rival John McCain works to close him out in the GOP race. Democratic candidate Barack Obama appeared as himself during the showâs last episode before the strike, on Nov. 3, 2007.”
Asa Hutchinson ends Huckabee support, backs McCain
The Cabin | Feb. 22, 2008 | AP
Posted on 02/22/2008 11:07:43 AM EST by FocusNexus
Drudge: Huckabee-Deadlocked Convention Is The Goal
1200- WOAI | 02/22/08 | Jeff Forsyth
Posted on 02/22/2008 7:42:09 AM EST by torchthemummy
“Mike Huckabee outlined a strategy which has him not winning the GOP nomination outright, but pushing the nomination to the September Republican National Convention, which he says will turn to him as the most ‘conservative alternative.’”
McCain Wins, Huckabee barely beating Romney
soundpolitics.com | February 19, 2008 10:10 PM | Eric Earling
Posted on 02/20/2008 2:09:16 AM EST by Checkers
“Huckabee was actually running 3rd behind McCain and Romney in fourteen counties. That’s amazing. Romney dropped out of the race twelve days ago and Huckabee is still losing to him in that many locales, including larger counties such as Benton, King, and Spokane. Moreover, Huckabee leads Romney by only small margins in a couple significant suburban counties, Clark (1.55%) and Kitsap (1.25%). Given all that, early absentees alone can’t account for Romney’s totals.”
Novak: McCain Won’t Pick Huckabee
Newsmax.com | February 17, 2008 | Phil Brennan
Posted on 02/19/2008 4:12:01 AM EST by Berlin_Freeper
The only law of probability is that small enough probabilities don’t happen.
In the last two brokered conventions for both parties, the elected candidates lost. However, in 1932 the brokered convention of the Democrat party produced a winning candidate... FDR. Parties hate brokered conventions. They are "messy" and worrisome. There is a real possibility that both parties could have brokered conventions this year. I am not sure that's ever happened. Regardless, I am thankful to Huckabee for hanging in there to provide "me" with a voice. For that, I have deep respect toward the man.
There is something very wrong about a candidate dropping out and then saying anything to affect the natural outcome of the process.
I know Romney doesn’t owe Huckabee anything but this process belongs to the people. If he wanted to have a say about the final outcome, he should have stayed in and let things play out.
On paper, or from a “game theory” perspective, it looks like Romney was McCain’s stalking horse all along.
Thanks, but as a Southern Baptist, I don't share your views.
Huck doesn't understand render unto Caesar what is Caesar's, and unto God what is God's.
He's highly lacking in that area.
And, I'm surprised at your rhetoric.
What the heck are you thinking?
Yes ma’am, and sir.
That, from what I've studied of Gov. Huckabee, as an effectively baseless and flatly wrong charge.
Feel free to try to justify it, though.
Feel free to defend it.
Anyone see Huckabee on Saturday Night Live tonight on the news segment? Great segment. I won’t vote for him, but one thing I can say for him is he has a good sense of humor.
He says he knows when to get out and not overstay his welcome, then at the end of the interview they thank him and say goodbye to him and he just sat there in his chair and kept thanking them for having him but made no move to leave. They kept on and on and he wouldn’t take the hint that the interview was over.
Sorry, that won’t do.
Vote for him and get five others to do the same.
And be enthused.
Mike Huckabee's positions, past, and commitments as president confirm knowing what "Caesar" is up to -- and provides a good sense he even knows quite a bit about what God's doings are.
The very fact that he wants to render unto Ceasar more than Ceasar needs...re: tax increases in his own state...tells me more than I need to know about him.
BTW, I do respect him as a God loving man, and a good pastor.
But, he’s having the time of his life right now.
He’s gotta be loving that.
What exactly do you mean?
I saw it! I was expecting him to crash and burn, jumble his lines and generally embarrass himself (as most politician do when they're on the show) but he was actually quite funny and had great timing. He had the crowd laughing.
Arkansas had to raise taxes to meet their constitutional balanced budget mandate. They turned out to have a surplus (due in large part, to the exceedingly rapid growth of the Arkansas economy during his Arkansas governorship). Huckabee recommended that they use the surplus as a cue to elimnate sales taxes on food. That is what they set about doing.
That would have to assume that all of Romney’s votes would be with held from McCain. McCain has won, face it!