Posted on 02/22/2008 11:27:13 PM PST by Kurt Evans
The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won't say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.
Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain's column will be unbound delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot...
The McCain camp thinks the "mathematically impossible" rhetorical ploy will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public, who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works...
McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him...
There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 804 delegates (and 18 of these are unbound delegates who are still able to change their mind), then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.
Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387... Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain...
McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1,191 in the remaining states.
Now here's the math ...
Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound!
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound!
North Carolina - 69 bound
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound
There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1,191 bound delegates.
Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen...
The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.
Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.
So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn't have enough bound delegates. But more likely, if he falls short of 1191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate ...
Huckabee to Make Guest Spot on First SNL Since Writers’ Strike
[The Times not the only turncoat in NY]
Fox News | February 20, 2008
Posted on 02/20/2008 4:12:07 PM EST by keepitreal
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1973527/posts
“The former Arkansas governor is not expected to host this weekend’s SNL — that job is reserved for ‘30 Rock’ star and former cast cast member Tina Fey. But a spot on the NBC sketch comedy show will at least give him some extra time in the limelight as rival John McCain works to close him out in the GOP race. Democratic candidate Barack Obama appeared as himself during the show’s last episode before the strike, on Nov. 3, 2007.”
Asa Hutchinson ends Huckabee support, backs McCain
The Cabin | Feb. 22, 2008 | AP
Posted on 02/22/2008 11:07:43 AM EST by FocusNexus
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1974531/posts
Drudge: Huckabee-Deadlocked Convention Is The Goal
1200- WOAI | 02/22/08 | Jeff Forsyth
Posted on 02/22/2008 7:42:09 AM EST by torchthemummy
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1974416/posts
“Mike Huckabee outlined a strategy which has him not winning the GOP nomination outright, but pushing the nomination to the September Republican National Convention, which he says will turn to him as the most ‘conservative alternative.’”
McCain Wins, Huckabee barely beating Romney
soundpolitics.com | February 19, 2008 10:10 PM | Eric Earling
Posted on 02/20/2008 2:09:16 AM EST by Checkers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1973192/posts
“Huckabee was actually running 3rd behind McCain and Romney in fourteen counties. That’s amazing. Romney dropped out of the race twelve days ago and Huckabee is still losing to him in that many locales, including larger counties such as Benton, King, and Spokane. Moreover, Huckabee leads Romney by only small margins in a couple significant suburban counties, Clark (1.55%) and Kitsap (1.25%). Given all that, early absentees alone can’t account for Romney’s totals.”
Novak: McCain Won’t Pick Huckabee
Newsmax.com | February 17, 2008 | Phil Brennan
Posted on 02/19/2008 4:12:01 AM EST by Berlin_Freeper
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1972628/posts
The only law of probability is that small enough probabilities don’t happen.
In the last two brokered conventions for both parties, the elected candidates lost. However, in 1932 the brokered convention of the Democrat party produced a winning candidate... FDR. Parties hate brokered conventions. They are "messy" and worrisome. There is a real possibility that both parties could have brokered conventions this year. I am not sure that's ever happened. Regardless, I am thankful to Huckabee for hanging in there to provide "me" with a voice. For that, I have deep respect toward the man.
There is something very wrong about a candidate dropping out and then saying anything to affect the natural outcome of the process.
I know Romney doesn’t owe Huckabee anything but this process belongs to the people. If he wanted to have a say about the final outcome, he should have stayed in and let things play out.
On paper, or from a “game theory” perspective, it looks like Romney was McCain’s stalking horse all along.
Thanks, but as a Southern Baptist, I don't share your views.
Huck doesn't understand render unto Caesar what is Caesar's, and unto God what is God's.
He's highly lacking in that area.
And, I'm surprised at your rhetoric.
What the heck are you thinking?
Yes ma’am, and sir.
That, from what I've studied of Gov. Huckabee, as an effectively baseless and flatly wrong charge.
Feel free to try to justify it, though.
Slander on....
Feel free to defend it.
Anyone see Huckabee on Saturday Night Live tonight on the news segment? Great segment. I won’t vote for him, but one thing I can say for him is he has a good sense of humor.
He says he knows when to get out and not overstay his welcome, then at the end of the interview they thank him and say goodbye to him and he just sat there in his chair and kept thanking them for having him but made no move to leave. They kept on and on and he wouldn’t take the hint that the interview was over.
Sorry, that won’t do.
Vote for him and get five others to do the same.
And be enthused.
Mike Huckabee's positions, past, and commitments as president confirm knowing what "Caesar" is up to -- and provides a good sense he even knows quite a bit about what God's doings are.
The very fact that he wants to render unto Ceasar more than Ceasar needs...re: tax increases in his own state...tells me more than I need to know about him.
BTW, I do respect him as a God loving man, and a good pastor.
But, he’s having the time of his life right now.
He’s gotta be loving that.
What exactly do you mean?
I saw it! I was expecting him to crash and burn, jumble his lines and generally embarrass himself (as most politician do when they're on the show) but he was actually quite funny and had great timing. He had the crowd laughing.
Arkansas had to raise taxes to meet their constitutional balanced budget mandate. They turned out to have a surplus (due in large part, to the exceedingly rapid growth of the Arkansas economy during his Arkansas governorship). Huckabee recommended that they use the surplus as a cue to elimnate sales taxes on food. That is what they set about doing.
That would have to assume that all of Romney’s votes would be with held from McCain. McCain has won, face it!
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