Posted on 04/12/2008 7:20:50 AM PDT by kellynla
The world is now in a period of sky-high oil prices that will last a long time—probably until 2020, according to the world's largest investment bank. Senior analyst Gioavanni Serio in Goldman Sachs, visiting Norway, told participants in an energy seminar that the oil industry moves in 20-year cycles, reports finance industry newswire E24.
The price for American raw oil rose to a record-high USD 112 per barrel this week after new figures revealed a surprising decrease in storage the week before.
Brent oil from the North Sea also rose to new highs, selling for USD 109 per barrel.
In the long-term, oil prices reflect marginal costs to the oil industry," said Serio at a yearly energy seminar held by Wilhelmsen at Lysaker outside of Oslo. "The oil price and marginal costs stayed low in the 1990s. Now that it has become far more expensive for the oil producers to retrieve oil, the price is going to rise correspondingly," he predicted.
The Goldman analyst does not think oil demand will increase significantly but he pointed to "bottlenecks everywhere". He said: "Oil companies are lacking professionals and rig rates have exploded from around USD 100,000 per day in 2002 to USD 500,000 per day this year."
Serio expects oil prices to fall in the short-term, to about USD 90 per barrel, but said it is "unrealistic" that the price would fall under USD 70 per barrel in the coming years. By the end of 2008, he expects the price to be well over USD 100 per barrel.
However, not everyone shares Goldman Sachs' bullish predictions. Italian oil giant ENI's CEO Paolo Scaroni said last week he believes oil prices will fall as a result of increased production.
"We expect the oil price to fall to USD 50-60 per barrel, a price that will provide for global growth," said Scaroni in an interview on Italian TV.
The Norwegian economy has boomed on the back of soaring prices for Norway's oil and gas amid a general world economic downturn.
2020 must be when the financing note on the oil futures they financed will be paid off....
Again, it is you who have no clue about what you are talking about. You are basing your opinion (underlined) on conflicting reports that are mostly clueless in their own respect.
The FACTS are, nobody knows the true nature of the reserves in the Williston Basin. It is based on pure speculation from all parties involved.
The formation in question also has barely a 5% recovery rate on the average, so those estimates are not very reliable.
I work closely with the USGS in handling their estimates because we drill mostly on BLM lands. Many of the wells that were drilled there were expected to yield huge volumes based on those estimates, but the actual recovery rate was marginal.
You really have much to learn, but what you lack in knowledge, you certainly make up for in arrogance.
We have the resources right here in a single field to replace what we buy from Saudi Arabia. We will not do it because the Saudi pay out political class not too. You have to wonder how much Saudi money is going to fund our “enviromental” groups since they are the Arabs best weapon against us.
Time to update.
Same with diamonds but the price never comes down?
Sad, but I think it's going to take some "angry mobs" in the street to influence our leaderships thinking?
Its a gutsy call to go out 12 years, but Goldman has been on the money more times than not.
How did they do predicting today’s prices or those of 1998-99 twelve years before?
Your opinion, backed up by your self published claims of expert status based on claims of a wholly unprovable professional background, are not facts. They are merely your opinions. For all we know your "35 years in the business" was as the Administrative Assistant to the Accounting Manager of a local convenience store chain. That would be "in the business" but would also explain your fundamental ignorance of basic industry facts.
When the facts are presented, you merely regurgitate your opinion over and over and over. That is a useless exercise in ego. So either you are trolling for a fight or you just being obnoxious. Which ever it it is, you lose.
No, but we have expanded a lot of existing ones.
Arm-Chair Engineers like yourself are a dime a dozen.
I guess my entire career wasn’t real. But thanks for telling me all about it..... I’ll take your information for what you think it is.
REFINERY CAPACITY UNIT COMPLETION
isn’t it interesting that the price of crude went from less than ten bucks a barrel in 1999 to over a hundred bucks in the time that the “oil president” has been in office...
thanks for your “leadership”, Jorge...like his father, GW has managed to squander a 90% approval rating!
Man, if my business goes bust I think I know what I will do for 3-5 years!
The biggest donors to those "Luddite" groups are the tax-exempt, "chraritable" foundations belonging to major oil company stockholders, and always have been.
I wasn’t subscribing to Goldman’s newsletters in 1996 since chasing bunkering opportunities on the Great Lakes held most of my attention. Thursday, Goldman predicted a $10/MM floor on gas this summer, which is a pretty good bet.
What? The Alberta Oils sands have been in continuous commercial production for over 40 years. They produced their billionth barrel back in 1998.
Oil Sands History
http://www.syncrude.ca/users/folder.asp?FolderID=5657
In 2006 Alberta’s oil sands were the source of about 62 per cent of the province’s total crude oil and equivalent production and about 47 per cent of all crude oil and equivalent produced in Canada.
Annual oil sands production is growing steadily as the industry matures. Output of marketable oil sands production increased to 1.126 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2006. With anticipated growth, this level of production could reach 3 million barrels per day by 2020 and possibly even 5 million barrels per day by 2030.
Alberta.ca > Energy Home > Our Business > Oil Sands
http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/OurBusiness/oilsands.asp
The experiment stage ended decades ago. It is not government controlled but investor owned commercial facilities.
The industry is investing over $150 billion in Alberta oilsands in new facilities and expansions.
Inventory of Major Alberta Projects
http://www.alberta-canada.com/statpub/albertaConstructionProjects/mpindex.cfm
Scroll down, select “Oilsands” and click “Submit”
Joe: I thought you said you were seeing 10% recovery rates in the Bakken. Do I remember that correctly?
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