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'Sky-High' Oil Prices to Last Until 2020
Aftenposten ^ | 11 Apr 2008 | staff

Posted on 04/12/2008 7:20:50 AM PDT by kellynla

The world is now in a period of sky-high oil prices that will last a long time—probably until 2020, according to the world's largest investment bank. Senior analyst Gioavanni Serio in Goldman Sachs, visiting Norway, told participants in an energy seminar that the oil industry moves in 20-year cycles, reports finance industry newswire E24.

The price for American raw oil rose to a record-high USD 112 per barrel this week after new figures revealed a surprising decrease in storage the week before.

Brent oil from the North Sea also rose to new highs, selling for USD 109 per barrel.

In the long-term, oil prices reflect marginal costs to the oil industry," said Serio at a yearly energy seminar held by Wilhelmsen at Lysaker outside of Oslo. "The oil price and marginal costs stayed low in the 1990s. Now that it has become far more expensive for the oil producers to retrieve oil, the price is going to rise correspondingly," he predicted.

The Goldman analyst does not think oil demand will increase significantly but he pointed to "bottlenecks everywhere". He said: "Oil companies are lacking professionals and rig rates have exploded from around USD 100,000 per day in 2002 to USD 500,000 per day this year."

Serio expects oil prices to fall in the short-term, to about USD 90 per barrel, but said it is "unrealistic" that the price would fall under USD 70 per barrel in the coming years. By the end of 2008, he expects the price to be well over USD 100 per barrel.

However, not everyone shares Goldman Sachs' bullish predictions. Italian oil giant ENI's CEO Paolo Scaroni said last week he believes oil prices will fall as a result of increased production.

"We expect the oil price to fall to USD 50-60 per barrel, a price that will provide for global growth," said Scaroni in an interview on Italian TV.

The Norwegian economy has boomed on the back of soaring prices for Norway's oil and gas amid a general world economic downturn.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: crude; energy; gasprices; oil
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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To: MNJohnnie

Arm-Chair Engineers like yourself are a dime a dozen.

I guess my entire career wasn’t real. But thanks for telling me all about it..... I’ll take your information for what you think it is.


51 posted on 04/12/2008 8:24:36 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: thackney; Deo volente

REFINERY CAPACITY UNIT COMPLETION


EAST COAST (PADD 1)

CONOCOPHILLIPS CORP. (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Bayway, NJ 5,800 bpd FCC N/A Revamp, conversion up 4 percent CDU N/A Revamp
SUNOCO INC. (SUN.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Phila., PA 15,000 bpd+ FCC Apr-07 Costs rose from $300 million to $520 million amid industry-wide cost pressures and design changes 40-50,000 bpd HDS early-09 up to $275 million to convert an idle HCU to process heating oil into ultra-low sulphur diesel
VALERO CORP. (VLO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Del. City, DE 20,000 bpd CDU N/A Company seeking permits

MIDWEST (PADD 2)

BP PLC (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research)
Whiting, IN N/A refinery 2011 $3 billion revamp to increase heavy crude processing, motor fuels output to rise 55,000 bpd
COFFEYVILLE RESOURCES
Coffeyville, KS 15,000 bpd CDU late-06
FLINT HILLS RESOURCES
Rosemount, MN 50,000 bpd CDU Q4-07 N/A DCU N/A Larger coker drums being installed
FRONTIER OIL CORP. (FTO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
El Dorado, KS N/A CDU/VDU Q2-08 $50 million heavy crude revamp 2,500 bpd DCU Q2-08 Two new coker drums 5,000 bpd FCC Q2-09 $78 million expansion HTU Q2-09 $77 million expansion
MARATHON OIL CORP (MRO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Catletssburg, KY N/A refinery N/A 150,000 bpd heavy oil project. Conceptual study started
Detroit, MI N/A refinery N/A Convert refinery to run 100,000 bpd heavy oil. Front-end engineering studies underway
Robinson, IL N/A refinery N/A 180,000 bpd heavy oil project. Feasibility study started.
MURPHY OIL CORP (MUR.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Superior, WI N/A refinery N/A Seeking Canadian oil sands partner for possible expansion
SINCLAIR OIL CORP.
Tulsa, OK 30,000 bpd DCU 2009 40,000 bpd refinery N/A Planned expansion, no timetable
SUNOCO
Toledo, OH 20,000 bpd CDU Jun-07 $40 million expansion, on budget 10-15,000 bpd HCU end-08 $30 million expansion 20,000 bpd CDU 2008 On hold due to costs 24,000 bpd FCC 2008 On hold due to costs
WRB REFINING LLC (ConocoPhillips and EnCana joint venture)
Wood River, IL 32,000 bpd GDS 2007 S-Zorb unit 70,000 bpd CDU 2009 CDU, DCU projects are $1.9 65,000 bpd
DCU 2009 billion first phase of oil sands N/A CDU/DCU 2013 Further 100,000 bpd bitumen $2 billion capital cost
WYNNEWOOD REFINING (GARY-WILLIAMS ENERGY)
Wynnewood, OK 15,000 bpd CDU Q1-07 20,000 bpd DHT N/A

GULF COAST (PADD 3)

CHEVRON CORP. (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Pascagoula, MS 16,000 bpd FCC Late-06 Completed December 2006 N/A CCR N/A Permitting underway, construction to start in early 2008 if approved. Replaces two older reformers, boosts gasoline output by 12,000 bpd 200,000 bpd refinery N/A Applied for permits. Work seen in 2008, 2009
HOLLY CORP. (HOC.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Navajo, NM 15,000 bpd CDU Q4-08 revamp 20,000 bpd HCU Q4-08 $225 million total outlay N/A CDU 2011 40,000 bpd heavy crude revamp
MARATHON OIL CORP. (MRO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Garyville, LA 180,000 bpd CDU Q4-09 $3.2 billion expansion 44,000 bpd DCU Q4-09 70,000 bpd HCU Q4-09 65,000 bpd CCR Q4-09 47,000 bpd KHT Q4-09
MOTIVA ENTERPRISES LLC (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research)
Pt. Arthur, TX 45,000 bpd DHT 2008 Construction began June 2006 325,000 bpd refinery 2010 Decision expected in 2007, some long-lead time equipment ordered
PASADENA REFINING SYSTEM INC.
Pasadena, TX N/A refinery 2010 revamp to run 70,000 bpd Marlim N/A CDU N/A future 100-200,000 bpd expansion
PLACID REFINING COMPANY LLC
Port Allen, LA N/A FCC Q2-08 Gasoline output increased 7,000 bpd N/A CDU Q3-08 Heavy oil revamp 25,000 bpd CDU N/A Planned expansion
TOTAL SA (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research)
Pt. Arthur, TX N/A DCU 2009 $1 billion project studied
VALERO ENERGY CORP. (VLO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
C. Christi, TX N/A ISE Q2-07 MTBE unit conversion
Houston, TX N/A HCU Q2-07 Mild hydrocracker
Pt. Arthur, TX 75,000 bpd CDU Q1-07 completed and in operation 125,000 bpd refinery 2009 $1.3 billion project, engineering underway, not yet sanctioned
St Charles, LA 50,000 bpd refinery N/A Permitting underway
Tx. City, TX 20,000 bpd CDU N/A Expansion canceled on costs 12,000 bpd DCU N/A Expansion canceled on costs
WRB REFINING LLC
Borger, TX 20,000 bpd DCU Q2-07 Bitumen phase 1, $500 million debottleneck refinery 2009 Bitumen phase 2, $300 million 54,000
bpd CDU 2012 Bitumen phase 3, $600 million

ROCKY MOUNTAINS (PADD 4)

CONOCOPHILLIPS
Billings, MT 10,000 bpd CDU/VDU Q2-07 Heavy crude capacity up 46,000 bpd
FRONTIER
Cheyenne, WY 4,500 bpd DCU Q3-07 $89 million expansion N/A CDU Q2-07 $8 million revamp
HOLLY
Woods Cross, UT 5,000 bpd CDU Q4-08 15,000 bpd HCU Q4-08 $100 million for both projects
SINCLAIR
Salt Lake, UT 60,000 bpd DCU 2009
Sinclair, WY 20,000 bpd CDU late-06 20,000 bpd DCU late-06 coker purchased from idle refinery

WEST COAST (PADD 5)

BIG WEST OIL LLC
Bakersfield, CA 19,200 bpd FCC 2008 $680 million conversion capacity 25,000 bpd DHT 2008 project to double CARB diesel and 9,000 bpd ALK 2008 gasoline output.
CHS INC. (CHSCP.O: Quote, Profile, Research)
Laurel, MT 15,000 bpd DCU Aug-08 $325 million
CONOCOPHILLIPS
Ferndale, WA 25,000 bpd DCU N/A Adds 25,000 bpd heavy oil capacity 5,000 bpd CDU N/A
Rodeo, CA 20,000 bpd HCU 5,000 bpd CDU
Los Angeles N/A DCU N/A/ Revamp, clean yields up 2 percent
TESORO CORP. (TSO.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
Los Angeles N/A DCU N/A revamp N/A DHT N/A revamp
Martinez, CA N/A DCU N/A Conversion of existing fluid coker,costs as high as $525 million from $275 million initial estimate
Anacortes, WA 25,000 bpd DCU canceled July 2006 on costs N/A refinery H2-07 $34 million sour crude revamp
VALERO
Benicia, CA N/A DHT Q3-07 ULSD unit, $105 million
Wilmington, CA N/A ALK Q4-07 $195 million project

KEY: FCC: Fluid Catalytic Cracker; CDU: Crude Distillation Unit; VDU: Vacuum Distillation Unit;
DCU: Delayed Coker Unit; DHT: Distillate Hydrotreater; HTU: Hydrotreater; HCU: Hydrocracker; CCR:
Catalytic Reformer; KHT: Kerosene Hydrotreater; GDS: Gasoline Desulphurization Unit; ALK:
Alkylation unit ISE: Iso-Octene unit


52 posted on 04/12/2008 8:27:47 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Never say never (there'll be a VP you'll like))
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To: Capt. Tom

isn’t it interesting that the price of crude went from less than ten bucks a barrel in 1999 to over a hundred bucks in the time that the “oil president” has been in office...
thanks for your “leadership”, Jorge...like his father, GW has managed to squander a 90% approval rating!


53 posted on 04/12/2008 8:29:14 AM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: antivenom

Man, if my business goes bust I think I know what I will do for 3-5 years!


54 posted on 04/12/2008 8:30:44 AM PDT by redstateconfidential (If you are the smartest person in the room,you are hanging out with the wrong people.)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Your opinions are in error. That has been prove here. Your opinions do not triumph over the facts. Please get over yourself.
55 posted on 04/12/2008 8:34:42 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (http://www.iraqvetsforcongress.com ---- Get involved, make a difference.)
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To: MNJohnnie
The problem is our political class has surrendered to a bunch of well funded hyper activists “eviormental” pressure groups who have a total Luddite view of how the world should work.

The biggest donors to those "Luddite" groups are the tax-exempt, "chraritable" foundations belonging to major oil company stockholders, and always have been.

56 posted on 04/12/2008 8:35:55 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: thackney

I wasn’t subscribing to Goldman’s newsletters in 1996 since chasing bunkering opportunities on the Great Lakes held most of my attention. Thursday, Goldman predicted a $10/MM floor on gas this summer, which is a pretty good bet.


57 posted on 04/12/2008 8:36:25 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
there are billions pouring in because it is government controlled but there are not those billions pouring out. The project is nothing more than an experiment like ethanol

What? The Alberta Oils sands have been in continuous commercial production for over 40 years. They produced their billionth barrel back in 1998.

Oil Sands History
http://www.syncrude.ca/users/folder.asp?FolderID=5657

In 2006 Alberta’s oil sands were the source of about 62 per cent of the province’s total crude oil and equivalent production and about 47 per cent of all crude oil and equivalent produced in Canada.

Annual oil sands production is growing steadily as the industry matures. Output of marketable oil sands production increased to 1.126 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2006. With anticipated growth, this level of production could reach 3 million barrels per day by 2020 and possibly even 5 million barrels per day by 2030.

Alberta.ca > Energy Home > Our Business > Oil Sands
http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/OurBusiness/oilsands.asp

The experiment stage ended decades ago. It is not government controlled but investor owned commercial facilities.

The industry is investing over $150 billion in Alberta oilsands in new facilities and expansions.

Inventory of Major Alberta Projects
http://www.alberta-canada.com/statpub/albertaConstructionProjects/mpindex.cfm
Scroll down, select “Oilsands” and click “Submit”

58 posted on 04/12/2008 8:39:01 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP; Smokin' Joe
The formation in question also has barely a 5% recovery rate on the average

Joe: I thought you said you were seeing 10% recovery rates in the Bakken. Do I remember that correctly?

59 posted on 04/12/2008 8:40:54 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: kellynla


60 posted on 04/12/2008 8:42:35 AM PDT by G8 Diplomat
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To: G8 Diplomat

Another Michael Ramirez Classic! LOL


61 posted on 04/12/2008 8:44:26 AM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Somebody during the dot com bubble had said that stocks were now currency as one factor in "sustainable" bubble prices for the worthless stocks. The second I hear "it's different this time" or "this commodity / stock / asset is unique because," I wonder if it is time to short. In fact, I did so with a Florida condo builder after the winner of Donald Trump's "The Apprentice" espoused her positive, "expert" and bullish views at an industry event a few years back.

I know a guy who has www.oilrising.com for those who believe oil prices are going up, and also www.oilfalling.com for those who believe prices are going down. It is funny because he is taking advantage of both sides in this very debate.

62 posted on 04/12/2008 8:45:48 AM PDT by bluefish (Hey! Where did this come from?)
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To: Capt. Tom
It looks like oil was about 10% of it's current price only 10 years ago!

That's an important point.

63 posted on 04/12/2008 8:47:17 AM PDT by norraad ("What light!">Blues Brothers)
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To: G8 Diplomat

That was Great. Now on my home page.


64 posted on 04/12/2008 8:49:54 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: knarf
There sure seems to be plenty of oil. What we need are refineries.

Huh? Are you kidding? That's just the problem - there is not "plenty of oil" left at all. In fact there really isn't much more than 50 years worth by many estimates. And that includes drilling in ANWR and everywhere else. It's going to run out someday, and that day is fast approaching.

65 posted on 04/12/2008 8:50:32 AM PDT by thegreatestgeneration (Reagan would not be happy with us right now...)
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To: MichiganMan
People looking for complicated answers to the price of gas kill me.

There need to be more conservatives like you posting on here. These people just don't get it.

66 posted on 04/12/2008 8:52:46 AM PDT by thegreatestgeneration (Reagan would not be happy with us right now...)
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To: thegreatestgeneration
It's going to run out someday, and that day is fast approaching.

It won't run out all that fast. It's at peak production right now so it isn't going to suddenly stop now. The cost will rise and rise until it is no longer a resource. Then it will be over even if it hasn't run out.

67 posted on 04/12/2008 8:54:09 AM PDT by RightWhale (Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
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To: thegreatestgeneration

Welcome to FR.


68 posted on 04/12/2008 8:54:30 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: norraad

If the tanking of Asian markets combined with the slow response of OPEC to scale back production that resulted in spot price for oil that low for a few months and compare that today’s price is a sign of the president’s fault, please explain it to me.


69 posted on 04/12/2008 8:56:23 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thegreatestgeneration
"Huh? Are you kidding? That's just the problem - there is not "plenty of oil" left at all. In fact there really isn't much more than 50 years worth by many estimates"

... and by just as "many", if not more than ... there is plenty of oil.

So I'm not an oil man, nor play one on TV, but I've chosen to believe the ones that say there is, rather than the ones that say there isn't.

Pretty much the same as Gorebull warming, eh?

I wonder if this 'information highway' thing is such a great idea.

I can't remember ever having so many bullets to believe/disbelieve in my life .. ever .. until I turned on my computer in 1998.

There does seem to be a trend ... That for every thesis there is an equal and opposite anti-thesis, and the theory of synthesis is yet to be proven.

70 posted on 04/12/2008 9:02:34 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true.)
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To: kellynla

The oil man retires in January of 2009, so I don’t see the climbing prices going much beyond that.


71 posted on 04/12/2008 9:04:55 AM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: knarf
believe the ones that say there is, rather than the ones that say there isn't.

We cannot know now. We can look back at some future time and say it was but in the middle of the ongoing it is impossible to do more than pass rumor.

72 posted on 04/12/2008 9:07:13 AM PDT by RightWhale (Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
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To: antivenom
I can tell you that we have “rig hands” at my place of employment...many who are high school drop outs and with a bit of a prison record...making at the ripe age of 22 & 23 yrs of age over 150,000.00 EASY!

EASY easy easy money....BUT it involves hard and dangerous work.

Just bought a $$$boatload of stock in Transocean Inc.(RIG) and Schlumberger (SLB).

There's a lot of money to be had investing in the "Drillers" and "Oil Services" industry. IMO.


73 posted on 04/12/2008 9:08:34 AM PDT by Donald Rumsfeld Fan ("Sincerity is everything. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made." Groucho Marx)
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To: thegreatestgeneration

In 1980 those estimates said we had 27 years left.

In 1990 those estimates said we had 41 years left.

In 2000 those estimates said we had 36 years left.

In 2005 those estimates said we had 41 years left.

In 2007 those estimates said we had 43 years left.

On average, the petroleum industry meets the rising demand and still adds more to the proved reserves.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/crudeoilreserves.xls

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t44.xls

Proved reserves are only based upon fields that have been flow tested. Areas known to contain oil but not drilled, like ANWR and most of NPRA for example are not counted in the total.

Now add those others plus oil shale, coal-to-liquid, gas-to-liquid and methane hydrates to our supplies.

Still think we won’t use liquid petroleum in 50 years? I’m not claiming it will be cheap, but I suspect it will still be the largest source of world energy.


74 posted on 04/12/2008 9:09:20 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
Oil up 1000% in a 10 years....., oh, I don't know how he did it, I'll admit it's quite a trick, I'll also admit I never said or inferred who or what did it.

It's an important point, that's what I said, that's what I mean.

When in history did something like this happen before?

75 posted on 04/12/2008 9:23:10 AM PDT by norraad ("What light!">Blues Brothers)
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To: kellynla

Bilge Water!!


76 posted on 04/12/2008 9:31:12 AM PDT by DarthVader (Liberal Democrats are the party of EVIL whose time of judgement has come.)
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To: Ron H.

Your cartoon expresses the truth in a nutshell.


77 posted on 04/12/2008 9:46:06 AM PDT by TFMcGuire (Either you are an American, or you are a liberal)
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To: knarf
There does seem to be a trend ... That for every thesis there is an equal and opposite anti-thesis, and the theory of synthesis is yet to be proven.

Here's the synthesis:

Yes we are running out of easy to recover oil but there is a whole sh*t load of difficult to recover oil still in the earth.

Difficult = $$$. So Goldman Sach's predection of 20 year high oil prices is probably true.

78 posted on 04/12/2008 10:04:08 AM PDT by Donald Rumsfeld Fan ("Sincerity is everything. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made." Groucho Marx)
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To: kellynla

No need after 12/21/2012....


79 posted on 04/12/2008 10:05:46 AM PDT by traumer
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To: traumer

“No need after 12/21/2012?”

Okay, I give up...what happens then? LOL


80 posted on 04/12/2008 10:15:39 AM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: thackney

It all depends on what area of the field you are in since the Bakken varies widely through out the region.

The New Town/Parshall area has a higher yield and recovery rate because of the nature of the porosity of the formation there. It is also one of the thickest production zones found in the entire field to date.

It is still difficult to determine however, because most wells start off with a good flow, but fall off sharply according to what the recovery rate will allow. Fracking and other metods are still being tried to see which works best, but the entire field is still too unproven to gather any solid data either way.

There is a vast discrepancy on estimates of the field’s total volume and recoverable oil because of the lack of historical data. The zone being produced currently has not had enough drilling activity yet, to give those statistical results.

There is a great potential, but there still lacks the number of rigs needed to open the leases, which will give better statistical results.

Also, your post about the Albertal Oil Sands was not the original argument. it was first discussed about “Canadian Oil Shale’s.” The Alberta Oil sands is a different subject entirely. In fact, Sand and Siltstones in the Bakken is what make it producible using horizontal drilling methods.

So, believe me, don’t take me for some idiot who does not know what he is talking about. I’ll exchange technical data with anybody in that respect. My area of expertise deals with Horizontal drilling methods as well as production methods in the region.


81 posted on 04/12/2008 10:19:21 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: MNJohnnie
Just in passing, m'friend, Bakken is almost certainly (note those words, please) way richer than the recent headline-grabbing goobermint WAG, uh, pardon me, ''estimate''.

And Bakken pales before the potential yield from CO & UT shales. 'Course, we have to get the politicians' and environazis' thumbs out of their bum before we'll see much production from those shales.

82 posted on 04/12/2008 10:35:40 AM PDT by SAJ
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP; thackney; Smokin' Joe; Eric in the Ozarks
Shell's proven (but as yet unimplemented) in situ heating process and Chevron/BP's microwave-based process, also as yet unimplemented, to name just two.

In situ is breakeven at $38/bbl. Breakeven is uncertain so far on microwaving, because current thinking is that using a combination of frequencies may be more productive than the current single-frequency (harmonic) process.

Will they be implemented? Only if/when the political class tell the environazis to suck wind. What company is going to risk X billion on anything at all if some jackass tree-hugger might get lucky with a BS lawsuit and shut the project down, eh?

But, 35 years in the ''awl bidness'' or not, you're not paying attention. New technologies, as well as new adaptations of old technologies, are out there aplenty right this minute.

Care to add a bit of commentary, gents?

83 posted on 04/12/2008 10:42:33 AM PDT by SAJ
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To: thackney
Some of the more apocalyptic idiots in 1973 claimed we had less than 12 years' supply remaining. Isaac Azimov at one point wrote an article (1975 I think it was) halfway cheering the imminent 'running out' of petroleum on the grounds that this would effectively de-militarise most of the world.

Go figure, eh?

84 posted on 04/12/2008 10:47:00 AM PDT by SAJ
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To: kellynla

The Mayan calendar ends on Dec. 21, 2012...there’s a joke (that some take seriously) that the world will end on that date.


85 posted on 04/12/2008 10:47:13 AM PDT by G8 Diplomat
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To: SAJ

The Bakken Shales have been misnamed. Production does not come from the upper or lower Bakken shales. It comes primarily from the Middle Bakken, which is mostly Sandstones and Siltstones. Most wells are currently being drilled in the lower shale portion to take advantage of the non-permeable nature of shale, then fracking, bringing the oil bearing mid-bakken to the well bore, which optimizes production.

It cost more to drill this way, because of the lower “P” rates but pays off in the long run with a higher yield. The only set back is the average recovery rates of the formation are low. But new technology and methods are continually being improved.


86 posted on 04/12/2008 10:59:20 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Don’t mind them, Psycho. They cannot help themselves.

I was born into the oil industry nearly 60 years ago and have seen lots and lots of booms and busts. I used to feel sorry for the typical American consumer when prices got out of hand. Now I don’t care, because the American people, thru elections, has had since 1973/74 in order to get control of their own energy future. Failing to do that, they must pay the price now. And they will continue to have to pay until they wise up.

Son is DD here in TX.


87 posted on 04/12/2008 11:04:02 AM PDT by biff
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To: knarf

Prices are really arbitrary numbers. What really matters over time is how many hours you have to work to buy the oranges, radios, automobiles and houses. Of course, you have to factor in the changes in technology as you pointed out. The automobile of 2008 is vastly different from the automobile of 1968.


88 posted on 04/12/2008 11:04:24 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: SAJ

Good points, by the way, what part of Canada are you from?

I have dealt first hand with assembling a rig and all the crews, with just days before spudding the well and have a court order shut the whole thing down.

The latest was in Utah where a sacred Indian arrow-head hunting ground managed to put over 100 people out of work. Of course, we quickly went some where else and our paychecks didn’t see any difference, but the real losers were the indians. They stood to get huge royalties off the mineral rights.


89 posted on 04/12/2008 11:07:05 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: G8 Diplomat

oh...okay...I don’t keep up with the Mayan calendar...
I have enough to do just to keep up with our calendar. LOL


90 posted on 04/12/2008 11:07:26 AM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: biff

Don’t mind Biff, You dinosaurs think cause you knew the business 20 years ago you are still experts. The world has changed. Try to keep up instead of arrogantly demanding, like Phsyco did on this thread, that the rest of us ignore all factual reality just so you Whineocons can feverishly cling to your narrow emotion based political dogmas and fundementel doom and gloom ignorance.

Another piece of factual data that shows you and Phsyco either wholly ignorant or frauds.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html


91 posted on 04/12/2008 11:09:29 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (http://www.iraqvetsforcongress.com ---- Get involved, make a difference.)
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To: biff

Thanks good FRiend,

I am a DD consultant and like I said before, we go primarily on a day to day basis. Projections and estimates mean absolutely nothing to us. The actual facts are what we deal with.

We don’t land a drill string based on estimates, we land it by hands-on tenacity and paying strict detail to realistic conditions. And they vary greatly by the second.

It just gets more and more expensive with every new method we develop. That seems to be the only constant.


92 posted on 04/12/2008 11:17:40 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: MNJohnnie

LOL! Inducing production out of older mostly depleted fields, has nothing to do with what was being discussed here today. The discussion was over the higher cost of drilling and some of the methods being used. And you clearly illustrated the additional costs to extract oil that must be added on to the initial cost to produce that oil.

As far as I’m concerned, you are simply too rude or overbearing to have a logical and intelligent discussion with. You also go out of your way to insult people who have a valid opinion, simply because you don’t agree with their outlook.

If you are looking for a technical battle, and care to discuss it in a civil and respectful manner, I’m more than available, but if you keep on throwing insults and poorly based facts on a subject you know almost nothing about, then forget about a response from me from here on out.

You are only making yourself look like a small cynical little man who uses abusive comebacks when he lacks the expertise or the dignity to carry on a logical and pragmatic conversation.


93 posted on 04/12/2008 11:37:18 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Also, your post about the Alberta Oil Sands was not the original argument.

Sorry, skimming through the posts and Alberta jumped out at me. My apologies.

94 posted on 04/12/2008 11:38:16 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: MNJohnnie

That’s ok MN. If you are the young expert, why don’t you come on down here and show us how it is done. You might be suprised to know that oil wells are drilled today exactly like they were 60 years ago. As a matter of fact, there are rigs running today that are at least 30 yrs old.

I suppose the biggest technological breakthru has been directional drilling, computers, 3D seismo, and fracking.

Most yankees do not know squat about how the oil industry works. How it develops fields, the drilling and production processes, gathering, refining. Oh, I forgot, the yankess do know how to make money off the backs of the American consumer by driving up the price of oil on the futures markets.

So that is ok MN, this old fart will still help drill oil wells and provide America with the lifeblood that drives our economy in everything a consumer touches. And I will be very happy when I go to the bank.

That is all.


95 posted on 04/12/2008 11:43:10 AM PDT by biff
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To: thackney

No appology necessary Thack,

The discussion here was supposed to be reasonable, but then somehow became skewed.

I do have in depth knowledge about this field (The Williston Basin) from a technical standpoint. And I am only trying to clear up what many here are confused about. You will get it from a realistic standpoint as far as I am concerned. Nothing more, nothing less.


96 posted on 04/12/2008 11:45:06 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: biff

ROFLMAO!

Like a hot knife through warm butter my FRiend!


97 posted on 04/12/2008 11:48:14 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: thackney

Very interesting


98 posted on 04/12/2008 11:52:09 AM PDT by thegreatestgeneration (Reagan would not be happy with us right now...)
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To: traumer
No need after 12/21/2012....

I think maybe you're more right than all the rest here.

99 posted on 04/12/2008 11:52:44 AM PDT by Ron H. (Keeping my powder dry for the next coming civil war....)
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To: kellynla
There are a number of web sites that has information on the subject. Here is one that ddeals with the general subject, not one of the beter ones but it gives a basic idea of what it is about. The History channel has also dealt with the same subject as well over the past year or so.
100 posted on 04/12/2008 12:04:05 PM PDT by Ron H. (Keeping my powder dry for the next coming civil war....)
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