Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Totten: The War in Iraq is "All But Over"
Jawa Report ^ | July 16, 2008 06:26 PM | Dr. Rusty Shackleford

Posted on 07/17/2008 12:42:13 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

More on the we've won front from Michael Totten:

I’m reluctant to say “the war has ended,” as he did, but everything else he wrote is undoubtedly true. The war in Iraq is all but over right now, and it will be officially over if the current trends in violence continue their downward slide. That is a mathematical fact.
Over the past few days al Qaeda has detonated several car bombs in Diyala. So, how is the war "over"?

Totten goes on to say that the violence may never actually peter off to nothing in Iraq, but reminds us that violence and terrorism are endemic to the entire Middle East.

It's not over in the sense that we can now come home. It's over in the sense that we've crossed a line where our victory is all but assured if we stay the course. Like U.S troops crossing the Rhine in 1945--there are still a few battles left in the failed Islamist insurgency, but there is little doubt what the ultimate outcome will be.

It may even be too late for Barack Obama to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Of course, that wouldn't be true had his "let's end the surge before it ever begins" strategy been adopted. But if (God forbid) he wins, he'll take office in January of 2009. Given current trends we should be in full peace keeping mode by then.

From the beginning the many reasons for my support of ongoing efforts in Iraq can be reduced to a single premise: America must win its wars.

Victory enhances national security, failure reduces it. The ten years following our surrendering Vietnam to the communists were a foreign policy nightmare. That single act emboldened and reinvigorated not only communists across the world, but also Islamist revolutionaries such as Ayatollah Khomeini who, rightly, saw that the U.S. would no longer keep its security commitments.

Ditto that in our initial response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. And the killing of our Marines in Lebanon. And in Somalia.

Losing emboldens our enemies, winning frightens them.

I'll end with these two quotes which have haunted me for years now:

When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse.

---Osama bin Laden, December 2001

We experienced the Americans through our brothers who went into combat against them in Somalia, for example. We found they had no power worthy of mention. There was a huge aura over America -- the United States -- that terrified people even before they entered combat. Our brothers who were here in Afghanistan tested them, and together with some of the mujahedeen in Somalia, God granted them victory. America exited dragging its tails in failure, defeat, and ruin, caring for nothing.

---Osama bin Laden, October 2001

Liberals would do well to pay attention to them.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 4victory; iraq; iraqsurge; iraqvictory; michaelmoore; michaeltotten; mooredeeplysaddened; nuke; nukemogadishu; nukesomalia; victory
Comments at the Website......
1 posted on 07/17/2008 12:42:13 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: NormsRevenge; elhombrelibre; Allegra; SandRat; tobyhill; G8 Diplomat; Dog; Cap Huff; ...

fyi


2 posted on 07/17/2008 12:43:32 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Aren’t there more deaths in Democrat occupied Chicago than in Baghdad?


3 posted on 07/17/2008 12:44:54 PM PDT by twntaipan (Dump the Drill-nothing Democrats: Lower fuel costs in the process!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

4 posted on 07/17/2008 12:47:15 PM PDT by XR7
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; All
Dems Iraq Victory Not an Option
5 posted on 07/17/2008 12:49:19 PM PDT by musicman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: twntaipan
Don't know ...but there is something going on there.....news item:

Ill. Gov: Chicago May Get Troopers, National Guard

******** ******************EXCERPT *********************

ABC NEWS AP Story

Mayor Daley Surprised by Official's Comments


6 posted on 07/17/2008 12:50:22 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: musicman

Excellent!


7 posted on 07/17/2008 12:51:04 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: twntaipan

The war has been over since after the first few weeks of hostilities. We’ve been fighting to stablize the government and the peace for several years.

Quick war. New government. New economy. Functioning socieity. Power handed over to the locals. Small numbers of well funded locals and foreign infiltrators distablizing things and scaring the large majority in the middle who want stability and fear the great power abandoning them prematurely.

How many times in history has this been done? How many times has a nation of similar size and power been toppled and replaced with as little death and destruction?

Bush and the U.S. deserve lots of credit.


8 posted on 07/17/2008 12:52:55 PM PDT by mbarker12474 (If thine enemy offend thee, give his childe a drum.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Old news, I read this every day in the NYT and see it on all the alphabet TV networks nightly.

I am certain Obama will be grilled incessantly about the success of the surge every minute he is in Iraq with all the news anchors........

9 posted on 07/17/2008 12:57:14 PM PDT by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Totten goes on to say that the violence may never actually peter off to nothing in Iraq, but reminds us that violence and terrorism are endemic to the entire Middle East.

Well, Totten, violence is pretty endemic to some of our cities, too.

10 posted on 07/17/2008 12:58:54 PM PDT by hsalaw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All; Tennessean4Bush; jveritas
And FR Thread .... Michael Yon Online ^ | 7/14/2008 | Michael Yon :

Success in Iraq (War over. We won. Iraqis Won.)

11 posted on 07/17/2008 1:03:56 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

which is more peaceful now?

Iraq or Algeria?


12 posted on 07/17/2008 1:05:51 PM PDT by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: silverleaf
which is more peaceful now?

Iraq or Algeria?

Which is more peaceful now?

Bagdad or Chicago?

13 posted on 07/17/2008 1:07:24 PM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"violence and terrorism are endemic to the entire Middle East"

This is not possible because Jorge has told us that Islam is a Religion Of Peace(TM)

14 posted on 07/17/2008 1:20:01 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Bernanke is a Monetary Slut!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mbarker12474
How many times in history has this been done?

Very, very few. That's part of the problem, actually. Many (not all) Dems are ideologues for whom the narrative is everything, that is, a more or less coherent story with themselves as the heroes and their political opposition as the villains. The Vietnam narrative (and not the actual events) was irresistibly attractive to them for this reason, which was why so many clung to it desperately and still do.

This isn't that, and it turns out that an attractive narrative is indispensable during an election year, so the choice is between clinging to the old story line and furiously denying evidence to the contrary or coming up with a new storyline, i.e. the war was won because of some Democratic policy or other. The problem with the latter is that Obama has already chosen to cast himself as the fellow who was against the war from the beginning, and his claiming credit for the victory is a stretch even the NY Times might find hard to swallow. Not to mention She Who Must Not Be Named lurking in the background with an "I told you so" smirk on her face.

Victory will be recognized as soon as it becomes advantageous for the ideologues in control of the media and the Democratic party to do so, and not until then. It may be grudgingly admitted to before that, which is what is happening now. Very grudgingly indeed, at least until that new narrative can be constructed.

15 posted on 07/17/2008 1:23:48 PM PDT by Billthedrill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Lakeshark; mbarker12474; musicman; twntaipan; XR7; hsalaw; silverleaf; pgkdan; Uncle Miltie; ...
Well,..the top levels are being cautious:

Iraq's security 'remarkably better' ( Joint Chiefs chairman hints at drawdown )

16 posted on 07/17/2008 1:29:17 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

It ain’t quittin time ‘til Big Uncle Sam says it’s quittin time!


17 posted on 07/17/2008 1:30:43 PM PDT by 668 - Neighbor of the Beast (Only a Kennedy between us and tyranny.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Billthedrill

Outstanding analysis (again)! Thanks. BUMP-TO-THE-TRUTH!


18 posted on 07/17/2008 1:45:32 PM PDT by PGalt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Billthedrill
This is going to get interesting...Will Obama declare Victory ...over there...?

I think the Dems have a problem....

19 posted on 07/17/2008 1:48:58 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

A “Thanks for the link!” BTTT !!


20 posted on 07/17/2008 2:08:46 PM PDT by musicman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Look for a very careful triangulation. Bambi's handlers are already trying to couch the whole Iraq thing as a sideshow to the "real" war in Afghanistan. That has the disadvantage of mortally insulting the people responsible for the Iraq victory but most of them don't vote Democrat anyway.

The new storyline appears to be that the Dems would have been leading cavalry charges across the Afghanistan plains were it not for the "distraction" that Bush created in Iraq. That won't fool anyone who knows even the bare basics about either the war or the Democrats but then it isn't intended to. The hope is that it will fool enough of the ignorant to get their boy into office.

That's really the key to it. Although Bambi's going to make it sound like it, he isn't forming a foreign policy here, he's forming a campaign platform. Once he's in the whole thing is renegotiable.

21 posted on 07/17/2008 2:15:33 PM PDT by Billthedrill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I think that we actually won Iraq in Fallujah in 2004; that until the "surge," it was still possible for a "Battle of the Bulge" or a "Cold Harbor" type victory by the enemy or devastating loss of life on our side to LOSE the war, but al-Qaeda could not win after we killed 2000 of their top guys in Fallujah.

What the surge did, besides ending all talk of a "civil war," was to get some of the western tribes and the Anbar region to come down clearly on our side. No small feat that. But there are many paths to victory. I could have envisioned a more backboned congress sticking to the original Bush plan, and while it would have cost us more troops, in the long run it also would have sucked in far more jihadists from all over the region---guys we will still have to kill. But no telling. Perhaps now we will kill them under better circumstances. It's also possible that a lot of the flare-up in Afghanistan is the result of post-surge terrorists giving up on Iraq and going back to the original front.

22 posted on 07/17/2008 2:19:35 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mbarker12474

Yep. We agree, taking somewhat different approaches. After Fallujah, they could not destabilize the military situation any more. They could still destabilize the government.


23 posted on 07/17/2008 2:20:44 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Oh, libs know those quotes. They know losing in Iraq would hurt the US. THAT’S WHAT THEY WANT, A HURT WEAK US. Why? Because a strong US is a barrier to their socialist dreams.


24 posted on 07/17/2008 2:21:39 PM PDT by piytar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

bump


25 posted on 07/17/2008 2:22:19 PM PDT by Skooz (Any nation that would elect Hillary Clinton as its president has forfeited its right to exist.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Billthedrill
The story of the LONG TERM victory, which won't be written for some time, is going to raise Bush right back up to the top ranks of presidents. For ex., consider that 500 tons of yellowcake. Ok, old stuff, right? So why did we keep it secret? Because we didn't want the terrorists to know where to get it till we had completely removed it.

Now, consider WMDs. Were they really "not there?" Or did we find them all along and have been quietly moving them and destroying them? I even wonder if the "anthrax" killer wasn't found, and had leads to other people that we are keeping quiet so we can get them. This country has been so damn safe given what we faced in 2001, the actual story has to be beyond our imagination.

26 posted on 07/17/2008 2:24:02 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: LS

Somebody is gonna write a tell all Book...sometime!


27 posted on 07/17/2008 2:41:53 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: LS

FWIW, I believe we won Iraq in Haditha and Hamdania.


28 posted on 07/17/2008 7:19:05 PM PDT by freema (MarineNiece,Daughter,Wife,Friend,Sister,Friend,Aunt,Friend,Mother,Friend,Cousin, FRiend)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I've heard that the biggest problem our troops now face in Iraq is boredom. Many want to head to Afghanistan.
29 posted on 07/17/2008 7:25:17 PM PDT by Mad_Tom_Rackham ("The land of the Free...Because of the Brave")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Billthedrill
The new storyline appears to be that the Dems would have been leading cavalry charges across the Afghanistan plains were it not for the "distraction" that Bush created in Iraq.

Absolutely. And of course this is 180 degrees from the truth given that the left has virtually no natural enthusiasm for going after the terrorists. In fact, it's fun to imagine how glum they'd be if Bush actually got bin Laden.

30 posted on 07/17/2008 7:58:48 PM PDT by Yardstick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: LS
This country has been so damn safe given what we faced in 2001, the actual story has to be beyond our imagination.

While the facts you post are both correct and relevant, the general consensus among the enemedia, their Democrat allies and the brain-damaged sheeple is that it is just a happy coincidence that this country hasn't suffered a major terrorist attack since September 11, 2001.

31 posted on 07/17/2008 11:00:06 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Are there any men left in Washington? Or, are there only cowards? Ahmad Shah Massoud)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Lando Lincoln; neverdem; quidnunc; .cnI redruM; Valin; King Prout; SJackson; ..
Lots of very good comments on the thread!

Dr. Rusty Shackleford :

... From the beginning the many reasons for my support of ongoing efforts in Iraq can be reduced to a single premise: America must win its wars.

Victory enhances national security, failure reduces it. The ten years following our surrendering Vietnam to the communists were a foreign policy nightmare. That single act emboldened and reinvigorated not only communists across the world, but also Islamist revolutionaries such as Ayatollah Khomeini who, rightly, saw that the U.S. would no longer keep its security commitments.

Ditto that in our initial response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. And the killing of our Marines in Lebanon. And in Somalia.

Losing emboldens our enemies, winning frightens them.

I'll end with these two quotes which have haunted me for years now:

When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse.

            ---Osama bin Laden, December 2001

We experienced the Americans through our brothers who went into combat against them in Somalia, for example. We found they had no power worthy of mention. There was a huge aura over America -- the United States -- that terrified people even before they entered combat. Our brothers who were here in Afghanistan tested them, and together with some of the mujahedeen in Somalia, God granted them victory. America exited dragging its tails in failure, defeat, and ruin, caring for nothing.

            ---Osama bin Laden, October 2001

Liberals would do well to pay attention to them.


Nailed It!
Moral Clarity BUMP !

This ping list is not author-specific for articles I'd like to share. Some for the perfect moral clarity, some for provocative thoughts; or simply interesting articles I'd hate to miss myself. (I don't have to agree with the author all 100% to feel the need to share an article.) I will try not to abuse the ping list and not to annoy you too much, but on some days there is more of the good stuff that is worthy of attention. You can see the list of articles I pinged to lately  on  my page.
You are welcome in or out, just freepmail me (and note which PING list you are talking about). Besides this one, I keep 2 separate PING lists for my favorite authors Victor Davis Hanson and Orson Scott Card.  

32 posted on 07/18/2008 5:04:52 AM PDT by Tolik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS

“...it also would have sucked in far more jihadists from all over the region-—guys we will still have to kill.”

Some bad guys just need to be killed.

In the discussion of which hindsight is actually 20/20, there are some arguments that I find compelling. For example: the attack vector from North would result in plenty of Sunni fighters killed. Because Turkey blocked it, they lived to fight another day. Also, the surge coincided with Sunni getting fed up with atrocities committed by Al-Qaida. Its possible that without this disillusionment, there would be no awakening. Another one: we allowed mosques to be used as safe haven for our enemies. In the balance of strong horse/winning the hearts equation, would our no nonsense approach of killing the enemy wherever it is, mosque or not - would it tilt the balance to our favor sooner?

In regards of Afghanistan: it looks like a neighboring country support is weaker now in Iraq, where Iraqi Shiites are less trusting of Persian coreligionists, while there is no border restrictions exist for Taliban and their supporters in Pakistan.


33 posted on 07/18/2008 5:59:50 AM PDT by Tolik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: musicman
Great cartoon.

Now that the Democrats are no longer able to plausibly deny the progress we have made in Iraq, they have moved the goalposts. The talking point du jour is that Iraq was "never" the central front in the war against al-Qaeda, and was just an unnecessary "distraction" from the "real" war.... in Afghanistan.

Never mind that al-Qaeda has regrouped in the latter country only after having been thoroughly routed in Iraq, and after suffering losses numbering in the tens of thousands. Democrats (and their media mouthpieces) never publish those facts. But the same Military Geniuses who predicted that the "surge" would never work now insist that we send thousands of troops and equipment into rugged terrain at altitudes above 8000 feet to fight both terrorists and the Taliban - without a coherent strategy but as an open-ended commitment (sound familiar?).

It seems that the Democrats, having failed to get Another Vietnam in Iraq, now demand the right to try again in Afghanistan. They'll get the US to lose a war if it kills them - or a few thousand more Americans, no matter to them.

34 posted on 07/18/2008 6:14:34 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Tolik

I think the respecting of the mosques was the correct call. It would have alienated ALL Iraqis, and screwed us. Yes, in WW II we bombed Monte Cassino-—but only after trying everything else. We never bombed Rome, and one reason was that we did not want to destroy a symbol of Christianity.


35 posted on 07/18/2008 7:45:18 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Vigilanteman

I agree, but in the long run that’s irrelevant. In the short term, it’s highly relevant.


36 posted on 07/18/2008 7:46:06 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; AdmSmith; Berosus; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Fred Nerks; george76; ...

Thanks Ernest, for both pings.

[snip] It’s not over in the sense that we can now come home. It’s over in the sense that we’ve crossed a line where our victory is all but assured if we stay the course. Like U.S troops crossing the Rhine in 1945—there are still a few battles left in the failed Islamist insurgency, but there is little doubt what the ultimate outcome will be. [end]

Iraq’s security ‘remarkably better’ ( Joint Chiefs chairman hints at drawdown )
Washington Times | Thursday, July 17, 2008 | Rowan Scarborough (Contact)
Posted on 07/17/2008 1:22:10 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2047108/posts


37 posted on 07/18/2008 9:54:41 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_________________________Profile updated Friday, May 30, 2008)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Let us hope our forces can somehow find and capture UBL and show videos of him being frog marched to some compound with shackles on his ankles. It will have a lasting effect on the goons of war's attitude, and a sobering effect on all the war critics on this continent as well as in Europe, Canada etc..
As for Zawahiri, it would be icing on the cake.
And of course Izzat Ibriham al Douri in a similar frog march would then add the whip cream.
Iran's Amahdinajad? The crowning cherry on the top.
38 posted on 07/18/2008 5:37:32 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Duncan Hunter was our best choice...Now we are left with a bunch of idiots.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Billthedrill

Your post reminds me of something.

http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/#quotes

Just as the Iraqi Information Minister insisted that “there are no Americans in Bagdad”,
The pabaracksee media (pronounced like “paparazzi”) will today insist that “there is no American victory in Baghdad”.

Such traitors they are.


39 posted on 07/18/2008 8:37:46 PM PDT by H.Akston (It's all about property rights.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson