They don't jibe, either. ;-D
Posted on 07/23/2008 5:37:00 AM PDT by TitansAFC
"...In Colorado, Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by seven percentage points, 49% to 42%. However, when leaners are included, McCain is more competitive and pulls to within three points, 50% to 47%..."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election
There is something funny here. Like Florida and like Virginia where the races are really close or Obama has supposedly a slight edge, McCain has significant leads in favorability.
Look:
Virginia: Tied, But McCain +12 favorable (McCain 64-Obama 52)
Colorado: Obama +3 (with leaners), But McCain +9 favorable (60-51)
Florida: Obama +2 (with leaners), But McCain +9 favorable (61-52)
And in the Florida poll we are supposed to believe that in the last 30 days Obama has went from plus 3% with independents to plus 23% over McCain with independents. Now tell me what in the last 30 days since the last poll that had McCain with a substantial lead has provided such a huge jump for independents. In fact most polls I see have indepdents trending toward McCain once again with the glow coming off Obama.
The Ohio poll is very good news but these are a total mystery. Simply put: THE NUMBERS DO NOT JIVE.
They don't jibe, either. ;-D
What is that?
Dude ! You’ve never seen “Airplane !” ?
Shrug. LOL. Yeah, it’s been a while. If I’m going kooky though I’d take Chevy Chase.
Heh, you’re gonna be at a disadvantage on FR not knowing it. Many of us quote lines from it on a daily basis. ;-)
Chevy Chase ? I don’t think he’s done anything funny in over 20 years... maybe 25. He probably peaked with “Caddyshack”, but he gets upstaged by Ted Knight and Rodney Dangerfield. Ted Knight was a national treasure and a heavily decorated war hero.
“I don’t think he’s done anything funny in over 20 years”
Never said he did. Christmas Vacation was from 1989. ;-)
Did you ever see “Vegas Vacation” ? That was a turkey, but Marisol Nichols, who played the 4th Audrey, was smoking hot.
http://easydoesituniversity.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/marisol-nichols-vegas-vacation.jpg
I haven’t. I will have to check out Miss Nichols tomorrow. Bed time now. Night! :-)
G’night.
So ALL the polls are always cr@p? I do disagree.
“Rasmussen Reports was also the nation’s most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry’s vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.”
No 10% MoE there. The point of election polling is to predict which candidate will win. Rasmussen called all the Senate races correctly in 2006, and only called one gubernatorial race, Minnesota, incorrectly.
There were Freepers attacking all the polling in 2006 as biased and inaccurate, too. They were equally convinced it was all garbage and was understating Republican support. That lasted until election night, when the Freepers were proven wrong and Rasmussen right. We’ll see in November.
Yep, that’s exactly it.
First off, I did not say all polls are crap, just that their stated MoE are BS, based on mathematical assumptions that just aren’t true. Second off, one poll getting close to the actual results does nothing to prove what the MoE is. You have to look at a large sample of polls and analyze their results. Of course there will be a few polls out of many that nearly nail the final results, that would be true no matter what the MoE was. I can throw a hundred darts at hit the bullseye a few times, that does not mean those few darts had a MoE of zero. It means I got lucky a few times. Polls have meaning, but their accuracy is grossly overstated based not on my opinion but based on analyzing their past results.
Certainly they do, and if they got a truly random sample of voters, there would be no reason pollsters would have to manipulate their data. They would take the raw data and calculate their results. But certain people hang up, certain people aren't home, certain people won't pick up the phone, certain people have unlisted numbers, certain people will lie, and there is also human error introduced. Things such as those lead to a non-random sample with errors, which lead to polling organizations having to try to manipulate the data to try to match their best guess at what a representative sample of the targeted population of voters looks like. All that adds greatly to what the REAL MoE is, which is far higher than what the quoted MoE is based on having a PERFECT random sample. A poll of 1067 people with a non-perfect random sample does not have a MoE of +/-3%. It IS greater.
You can quibble about the MoEs all you want, but when Rasmussen can call the winners, that’s accurate enough. And calling the winners is what election polling is all about.
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