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Rasmussen: Obama 51 - McCain 45 (from 49-46 yesterday)
Rasmussen ^ | 09/02/2008 | Rasmussen

Posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus

Obama is up by 6 in today's Rasmussen tracker, by 5 without leaners (48 - 43). It is obviuos that McCain had a very bad polling day yesterday, something like 42-53 daily sample or even worse.

Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; 2008rncconvention; 2008veep; biden; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; palin; palinattacks
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To: Artemis Webb
This is their big chance. Personally, I would vote NOTA in this election, if that were available.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

101 posted on 09/02/2008 7:06:30 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Edit35
But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

1986 or 1988 when he was 22 years old is not exactly reecent is it?

Get your sh*t together and post facts or don't post at all. We're getting enough agitprop from the MSM. Your contributions to their efforts are MOST unwelcome.

102 posted on 09/02/2008 7:06:49 AM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: Edit35
I don't mind saying that you disgust me. It is people like you who stay ill informed that alarm other people because you have no confidence and spread half facts.

Her husband had the DUI when he was 22. Would you mind understanding the full facts before you spout off. You sound like a lemming.

The pregnancy and DUI was known by the McCain team before he chose her.

Oh my goodness, did you know there was a fishing violation in their past? Oh no, gasp, this can't be.

103 posted on 09/02/2008 7:07:34 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: Edit35

Ummmm....you read that Todd Palin “RECENTLY” had a DUI. News Flash.....it was 22 YEARS AGO!!!!!! Can we do a fine tooth comb analysis on what Obama was doing 22 years ago????? Get your facts straight before you start to hurl crap like this around.


104 posted on 09/02/2008 7:07:46 AM PDT by bioprof (STRATEGERY!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Problem is we need more than the base to win. Have to watch the state polls. I have felt from the beginning it would take a miracle from our Maker to win. Do we deserve that miracle? I say some of us do. LOL. Keep praying.


105 posted on 09/02/2008 7:07:54 AM PDT by Hattie
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To: j_k_l
The ONLY poll that matters is Nov. 4th.

That's undeniably true, but we can still learn a lot from polls taken before then.

106 posted on 09/02/2008 7:07:57 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: MEGoody
Nah, I think Rasmussen just blew it.

Bristol Palin's pregnancy is like getting a punch in the gut.

It takes the wind out of the GOP sails, just when it was getting in gear.

Plus, the Gustav storm took the minds off of the Republican convention.... just when the GOP needed good publicity.

Up until Sunday, the McCain team had been masterful at releasing info in a timely way.

McCain and Palin KNEW they would eventually have to make this pregnancy thing public ... they should have somehow figured a way to inform the public right up front, instead of having it look like it was a big deep dark secret that was outed by the left wing kooks.

107 posted on 09/02/2008 7:08:57 AM PDT by Edit35 (.)
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To: Edit35
But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

How RECENT was it? I saw something yesterday that said 1987. Not is not exactly recent.

108 posted on 09/02/2008 7:09:14 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (My hate for Marxist Dimocrats is exceeded only by my hate for Marxist Dimocrats!)
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To: Edit35
Todd recently had a DUI.

Recently?

You must be a troll.

A person who is not running for office, was not even married, was 20 years old, got a citation 22 years ago?

109 posted on 09/02/2008 7:09:15 AM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: ubaldus
Yep. Because the electorate is more heavily Dem than in 2004. My feeling it will depend on which side does the better job of getting its voters out. Obama has that registration advantage going for him and of course registration isn't everything but with the GOP brand nane as battered as it has been, its a huge plus. And he has the cheerleading MSM in his corner to help him win.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

110 posted on 09/02/2008 7:09:20 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Federalist Society
You might have missed it, but Palin told the McCain camp that Bristol was pregnant. He knew this and picked her anyway.

Has it been confirmed that McCain knew about the pregnancy when he picked Palin?

111 posted on 09/02/2008 7:09:23 AM PDT by Sans-Culotte
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To: KavMan; All
Actually,

The more I look at the polls recently, the less I worry. Even this poll - Obama’s highest lead among LVs - is only 6 with leaners.

And the past week - DNC Convention, speech, hurricane, 24/7 non-stop personal attacks on Palin - has been all Obama paydirt. Still, barely ahead.

Now we have - for the first time since Saddleback - a chance to focus some positives on McCain nationally. Palin has the advantage of not just low expectations - but beneath-the-earth low expectations, and can shock the world by giving a great performance.

Mind you, all of the “dirt” will be old news very fast - it always is. The media jumped the gun on this - attacked too personal and too early - and will pay the price for being too eager.

The tide turns at the end of this week. The worst has past, and the sunny days are ahead of us. It only gets better from here, and the Obama folks know it.

112 posted on 09/02/2008 7:09:32 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: All

I’m going to say this once, as a former Romney supporter, this was a good pick.. I don’t there would be much excitement with Romney. To be honest I’m quite disgusted with some of the Romney supporters who does not like this pick.


113 posted on 09/02/2008 7:10:01 AM PDT by KevinDavis (If Obama can't handle a town hall debate, then he can't handle the job of being President.)
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To: Federalist Society

Certainly “We” know it, the American People however, do not know that, the idea that McCain knew she was pregnant has not been covered very extensively.


114 posted on 09/02/2008 7:10:20 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..Viva La Reagan revolcuccion!)
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To: ubaldus

Bull... this poll is jaded.. but then they all are..


115 posted on 09/02/2008 7:10:32 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: ubaldus

Let’s wait until all the polls shift from counting REGISTERED VOTERS to counting LIKELY VOTERS, which they haven’t yet done.

Then we’ll get a true picture.

Shouldn’t need to remind Freepers, but a lead in the polls for Obama can come from super-high majorities in the more populous states such as California and New York — but this doesn’t translate into an Electoral College majority by any means.


116 posted on 09/02/2008 7:10:33 AM PDT by Nabber
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To: ubaldus

...”Crawford made one particularly interesting observation: he said that he reviewed the past 3 election cycles of Labor Day/post-convention polls, & in 2 out of the last 3, whoever was ahead on Labor Day lost in the general election in November....”

http://www.newshounds.us/2004/09/07/finally_real_polls.php

Interesting note, too.


117 posted on 09/02/2008 7:10:49 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: WalterSkinner
Davis and his crew had to anticipate all of this when SP was vetted.

Not sure they anticiipated the depth of what was coming, nor the 24/7 Bristol, the child.

So far the McCain campaign response to this indicates to me they are in too much shock to think, let alone speak or act. Hope I am wrong.

118 posted on 09/02/2008 7:10:50 AM PDT by Hattie
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To: Canedawg

Hillary got 18 million votes, assume 50% of those were from women... that’s 9 Million women. If you assume 10% will vote McCain/Palin so they can vote for a woman and/or spite Fauxbama, that’s nearly 1 Million votes.. that’s a very significant amount of votes in an election that will likely have about 110-120 Million voters total.

The idea that democrats went home post convention is not suprising. The question is how strong they are for the guy, and Fauxbama’s support even among dems is not deep. These numbers can change, but even if they don’t victory is not going to come from the 80% of dems who are going to vote dem regardless of the nominee, or the 80% of repubs who are going to vote R no matter who the nominee is. its the 40% of the rest of the voters who will decide the election.


119 posted on 09/02/2008 7:10:52 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Edit35
"By time someone has five kids, is pushing 50, and is a responsible adult, they know enough to not get behind the wheel if they've had too many."

Um, his DUI was in 1986.

120 posted on 09/02/2008 7:11:02 AM PDT by ljco (I think the best possible social program is a job. - The Gipper)
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To: Edit35
It worked on you and you have helped spread a false story.

The charge is from 20 years ago. MSM diggng up very old news. He was 22 years old. He was not a father of five at the time. You put it out there now for more to read MSM grabage.

121 posted on 09/02/2008 7:11:25 AM PDT by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
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To: Edit35
I respectfully disagree with your position regarding the loss of good will. The message being transmitted is that it is not OK to get pregnant at 17 and that the right thing to do, if it happens is not to kill the baby, but to marry the Father and keep the baby.

This is the message that incenses the left! Babies are for killing, in their eyes!

122 posted on 09/02/2008 7:11:56 AM PDT by Redleg Duke ("All gave some, and some gave all!")
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To: Shery

“These pollsters have been wrong before!”

Rasmussen called 2004 within 1 point for both Bush and Kerry. His final numbers were Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5. The election result was Bush 50.7 Kerry 48.3. He also called all 24 state races that he polled in 2006 correctly.

This is the real state of the race right now. Obama got a bump out of his convention while it’s too early to see a GOP bump. So far, I say again, so far, Palin isn’t pulling the PUMAs.


123 posted on 09/02/2008 7:12:03 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet
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To: Hattie

McCain knew about the pregnancy, relax. There is no counter that is needed, the MSM leftists are attacking a 17 year old girl who has nothing to do with anything, this is a sure fire backfire among the voters that matter. Frankly I hope the leftist bloggers keep on going over the top frothing at the mouth.


124 posted on 09/02/2008 7:12:41 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: napscoordinator

I don’t think it’s about McCain. The drop is more because of Palin. Not all are sold on her. Not all are thrilled at her daughter’s pregnancy. Notice the only new news besides the hurricane is Sarah Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy. It has to be linked to that.


125 posted on 09/02/2008 7:13:11 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: johniegrad
should submit a letter of rebuttal to the editor.

Perhaps I will.

I never buy the newspaper anymore.

I was getting milk at my local convenience store when I glanced at the headline which had the phrase "recent"....

Believe me, I am overwhelmingly relieved that it's not ????

In fact, I was perplexed that the left wing wackadoodles didn't make more of this if it was "recent."

126 posted on 09/02/2008 7:13:34 AM PDT by Edit35 (.)
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To: syriacus

20 years ago. Palin was 22 years old.


127 posted on 09/02/2008 7:13:48 AM PDT by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
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To: syriacus

20 years ago. Palin was 22 years old.


128 posted on 09/02/2008 7:14:07 AM PDT by proud2beconservativeinNJ ("In God We Trust")
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To: hosepipe

One (possibly bad) poll result showing Obama 6 points up when he should be up 15 after his convention doesn’t say much. One day’s polling isn’t a trend. It could just be “noise,” as they call it. Before the Dem convention, if we had been told Obabma would only be up 6 immediately after, we would have been dancing in the streets.


129 posted on 09/02/2008 7:14:12 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: ubaldus

Don’t be afraid of the Democrats and their fellow Democrats in the news media. They’re all reading from the same script. And they’re all insidious.


130 posted on 09/02/2008 7:14:48 AM PDT by popdonnelly (I'll tell you a little secret: we're smarter and more competent than the Left.)
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To: nmh

And all they have to do is make a 20 second ad with

Sarah’s statement about their family’s support for their daughter

vs

Obama’s “wouldn’t want my daughters punished with a baby”.

That is a stark contrast that would clear this thing right up.


131 posted on 09/02/2008 7:14:50 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: nmh
I don’t think it’s about McCain. The drop is more because of Palin. Not all are sold on her. Not all are thrilled at her daughter’s pregnancy. Notice the only new news besides the hurricane is Sarah Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy. It has to be linked to that.

Actually that is not so bad then because that can change once the disappointment is done and over.

132 posted on 09/02/2008 7:15:03 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: Sans-Culotte

Confirmed by who? The lawyer who vetted her said McCain knew, the McCain team says he knew..and the people of Alaska knew.


133 posted on 09/02/2008 7:15:25 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: proud2beconservativeinNJ

I agree. It “worked” on me, because I should not have simply transmitted the story without checking.

Here’s the link. I plan to raise a ruckus about the headline, and it might help if others do also.

http://www.trentonian.com/site/news.asp?brd=1697


134 posted on 09/02/2008 7:16:08 AM PDT by Edit35 (.)
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To: LadyNavyVet

>> Obama got a bump out of his convention while it’s too early to see a GOP bump. So far, I say again, so far, Palin isn’t pulling the PUMAs.

Convention bump (+3 in Ras) was evident by Friday. The second bump (from +3 to +6) is more likely Palin shifting some undecideds to Obama.

Of course, this is hardly conclusive - but plausible.


135 posted on 09/02/2008 7:16:34 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: padre35
Right now, it seems like McCain made a mistake in picking Palin by not “knowing” about the pregnancy, Palin must dispell that perception, the sooner, the better.

McCain knew. It was an “open secret” in Alaska. Sarah did tell him. I'd bet ya many are cheering her on but inside they are disgusted. If the pregnancy thingie with her daughter didn’t pop up, they'd be more warm towards the idea of Sarah being a VP.

136 posted on 09/02/2008 7:17:01 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: TitansAFC
So I take it you want Palin to step down so Romney can step in, eh?

Roger that...
If McCain had chosen a guy with as thin a CV as Palin, we'd have thought he was nuts.
Romney was, and is my choice for VP.
O.K. start flamming...

137 posted on 09/02/2008 7:17:13 AM PDT by Riodacat (Legum servi sumus ut liberi esse possimus.)
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To: All

The polls measure reality. For there to be any chance at all now requires two things:

1) A strong convention

2) An opportunity for her to do what she was selected to do. That is win moderate women voters over. That’s not going to happen if every other minute of the day there is perpetual talk about what a right wing zealot she is wrt abortion. Abortion needs to be off the front page ASAP. It does NOT win moderate women. By definition, they don’t CARE about abortion in either direction. Bible thumping and screaming in their faces about how evil it is will just send them the other direction.


138 posted on 09/02/2008 7:17:16 AM PDT by Owen
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To: nailspitter
Nothing happened yesterday that would have given Obama a big bounce.

Uhmmm. Were you perhaps wrapped in cloth like a mummy and stuffed in a closet only to be let out this morning?

The "announcement" left many people thinking McCain did not know and many media members are trying to say this lacks good judgment. It will take awhile to dispel beliefs that this.

139 posted on 09/02/2008 7:17:16 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: nailspitter
We'll have to follow it and see if its statistical noise or if its a trend. The candidates internals tell them the real picture and you can guess where they are by where they campaign.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

140 posted on 09/02/2008 7:17:16 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

And as depressing as it is, the fact of the matter is that after 8 years of a party’s administration, the other party usually wins. Do I think McCain can win, yes? Do I think McCain will win, yes? I, personally think the debates will be where we see McCain pull ahead.


141 posted on 09/02/2008 7:17:26 AM PDT by Dawn531
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To: Edit35
I don't mind saying I'm disgusted.

I'm disgusted that someone too stupid and lazy to do basic research for themselves dares to post on FR.

142 posted on 09/02/2008 7:18:00 AM PDT by wideawake (Why is it that those who like to be called Constitutionalists know the least about the Constitution?)
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To: nailspitter
[ One (possibly bad) poll result showing Obama 6 points up when he should be up 15 after his convention doesn’t say much. ]

The whole process of polling is extremely flawed..
and should be illegal.. Polls themselves can effect Sheeple..

143 posted on 09/02/2008 7:19:34 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: Norman Bates; ubaldus
Governor Sarah Palin needs an acceptance speech and she needs a stump speech.

I hope that the McCain campaign as they write these speeches for her has the wit to seize on an affirmative theme and not play defense respecting her experience level for the job. Nor should this should be a get acquainted speech rather it should be a hard-hitting action oriented speech emphasizing her vision of rooting out corruption, eliminating waste, and checking spending on the federal level as she did in Alaska.

Her single concession to the issue of qualification for the job should be by way of humor to demonstrate that she has more experience than does Barak Obama. Like Reagan's crack about his own age compared to his opponent's youthand inexperience, this could end the issue forever.

They should never again permit her to appear on the platform as she did in Missouri without her hair being attractively arranged in a professional looking manner.

Her speech advisers must get her to pitch her voice lower and pace the delivery. She must never forget that although she will be making her speech to a convention full of roaring Republicans her real audience is sitting at home in a quiet room and wants to hear someone whose voice timbre suggests she can step into the ultimate role if it comes to that. She did not appear to good effect in these histrionic concerns in her Missouri appearance. Content is even less important than form and self-assurance.

In other words, the acceptance speech and the stump speech, the hairdo and the voice control are only important as means to demonstrate that Governor Palin has the requisite gravitas to play in the big leagues.

She gets one chance in her acceptance speech and the whole election could actually turn on it.


144 posted on 09/02/2008 7:19:34 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: ubaldus

Despite all the national attention that has been focused on Sarah Palin, public perceptions of the Alaska Governor have changed little in the last few days. She is still viewed favorably by just over half of all voters. A separate survey found that Obama is number one and Palin number two on the list of candidates people would like to meet.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


145 posted on 09/02/2008 7:20:05 AM PDT by flyfree
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To: LadyNavyVet

Basing anything on numbers out of a 3 day holiday weekend is amusing.

All we know is that the post election bump is no accounted for, and its not much. By the same time next week we’ll know where the race stands post the RNC.

I don’t care what race it is, I would never read into a poll taking over a 3 day holiday weekend to reflect an accurate state of anything.

What we do see is the post convention bounce, and its not much of one.


146 posted on 09/02/2008 7:20:05 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: puroresu
This is like the Clarence Thomas situation. Palin needs to perform as well as Thomas to blunt these smears and make it backfire bigtime on the Rodentia.

Exactly. I was as liberal as they come before the Clarence Thomas hearings.

Then I realized that my fellow libs were a nasty bunch.

Hypocritical Libs were eager to abandon their pretense that privacy was of the utmost importance, if it meant they could destroy Thomas by revealing he watched porn tapes.

I couldn't remain in a party that skewered a person just because he might defend the unborn.

This is what this contest is coming down to...

The right to life vs the right to cause pain by maiming, crushing, chemically burning and stabbing unborn children

It could not be any starker.

147 posted on 09/02/2008 7:20:09 AM PDT by syriacus (FIRST check out the Alaska state webpages. THEN tell me that governing Alaska is easy.)
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To: Edit35

“The pregnancy of Palin’s daughter is gonna hurt McCain ticket..... simply because a teen pregnancy goes against everything the Republican Party stands for.”

Exactly. No one wants to say too mauch about it. Obama scares people ... As fod Dad being DUI, well, what could would think highly of themself when they’re “Mr. Mom” with a single preggie daughter and Mom’s not around and too busy? Just because people aren’t talking about it doesn’t mean they aren’t thinking about it ... .


148 posted on 09/02/2008 7:20:35 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: ubaldus

“...tells us that Obama’s Dem support rate is very close to McCain’s GOP support rate.”

Gallup’s discussion today says exactly that. For the first time, BHO is getting the same support from Dems as McCain’s getting from Reps.

The GOP needs a heckuva convention, which is going to be hard to do with Hurricane Hanna for the MSM to talk about, when they’re not talking about Palin’s support for abstinence-only sex education.

Palin’s personable and she handles herself well. Were I McCain, I’d get her out on the chick show circuit and let her state her case to Oprah and the View nags, Regis and whatshername, etc... If she’s gonna pull PUMAs, she needs to go where they are and state her case.


149 posted on 09/02/2008 7:20:43 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet
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To: pa mom
You posted, "And now the base is upset by the pregnancy news."

Yes that news was unsettling. It took the bloom off the rose.

Even my ultra conservative 49 year old daughter, who works for our local Republican party, was upset...We're hoping that Sarah can keep up her enthusiasm...it's not easy when you know your daughter is hurting, and Bristol has to be hurting with her condition blasted all over the news...

and what about her boyfriend...he and his parents can't be too happy about all the hoopla either.

If Sarah hits a home run with her speech Wednesday night, and I sure hope she does, it will be wonderful, and in a week or two this will be old news.

150 posted on 09/02/2008 7:20:54 AM PDT by Auntie Toots (The GOP has taken on a new life..)
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