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Rasmussen: Obama 51 - McCain 45 (from 49-46 yesterday)
Rasmussen ^ | 09/02/2008 | Rasmussen

Posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus

Obama is up by 6 in today's Rasmussen tracker, by 5 without leaners (48 - 43). It is obviuos that McCain had a very bad polling day yesterday, something like 42-53 daily sample or even worse.

Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; 2008rncconvention; 2008veep; biden; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; palin; palinattacks
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1 posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: ubaldus

I think Gallup has it now at 50 to 43

I don’t feel like checking...


2 posted on 09/02/2008 6:42:21 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: ubaldus

Wow!!! I thought this would be McCain week. I guess not. Sad that McCain can’t even do well during RNC convention week. He better get his butt to work and begin convincing people he is ready for the job. I would not be as concerned if it was not conservative Rasmmussen...that is scary...they are always on target with these polls.


3 posted on 09/02/2008 6:42:34 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: ubaldus

Either that or the Hurricane and all the Democrats and Media discussing Katrina did it’s job and skewed people back toward the democrats a bit.


4 posted on 09/02/2008 6:42:43 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: ubaldus
Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.

Nah, I think Rasmussen just blew it.

5 posted on 09/02/2008 6:43:01 AM PDT by MEGoody (Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall cause you to vote against the Democrats.)
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To: ubaldus

Things will settle down as the crapy noise is digested, found to be just a lot of BS, and dissipates.


6 posted on 09/02/2008 6:43:26 AM PDT by roaddog727 (BS does not get bridges built - the funk you see is the funk you do)
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To: ubaldus
What do you think the polling numbers would be if the MSM did its damn job and started investigating the Ayers story and running non-stop coverage for the next few days?
7 posted on 09/02/2008 6:43:59 AM PDT by Federalist Society
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To: ubaldus

I wonder what a Duncan Hunter or Fred Thompson pick would have done? Bottom line is that the GOP will not win on mccain’s personality, they are going to have to slice and dice the radical commie to shreds.


8 posted on 09/02/2008 6:44:38 AM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: ubaldus

We’re going to have to weather it for now. The convention (I hope) is back tonight and we need to strike back. Sarah needs a home run tomorrow, and John on Thursday. Then we need to stick it to them at the debates.


9 posted on 09/02/2008 6:44:58 AM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: ubaldus

I guess this comes as no surprise to you.


10 posted on 09/02/2008 6:45:01 AM PDT by syriacus (FIRST check out the Alaska state webpages. THEN tell me that governing Alaska is easy.)
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To: ubaldus

I am suspicious of the holiday weekend polling.


11 posted on 09/02/2008 6:45:05 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: ubaldus

So I take it you want Palin to step down so Romney can step in, eh?

This is the first weekend poll after the DNC Convention. Same results every Election year.


12 posted on 09/02/2008 6:45:12 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: ubaldus
Don't panic. The rats and MSM just threw up the kitchen sink.
13 posted on 09/02/2008 6:45:16 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: napscoordinator

Can’t even do well during RNC convention week? It essentially hasn’t even started yet. Plus, Palin absolutely got pounded yesterday. I think you’ll start seeing a lot more pushback today. Plus, Obama was bound to see some lift from the DNC convention.

Look, I do think Obama has an advantage in this election. It’s his to lose but I do not at all think it’s a done deal. This is far from over.


14 posted on 09/02/2008 6:45:25 AM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: ubaldus

Could be the effect of the 3-day weekend. Republicans always sink during the weekend, and rise during the weekdays.


15 posted on 09/02/2008 6:46:06 AM PDT by Mr Rogers (Mav & the Barracuda vs. Messiah and the Mouth)
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To: ubaldus

Jeez, are you kidding me. It took 4 days for the DNC convention bounce to begin to show up... this is the tail end of that, combined with a holiday weekend polling. Relax folks.

Check the polls next tues or so, to know where things stand post RNC convention, that’s the baseline we’re working from.


16 posted on 09/02/2008 6:46:59 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: ubaldus; All

It could be the ‘weekend effect’.


17 posted on 09/02/2008 6:46:59 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: napscoordinator
Wow!!! I thought this would be McCain week. I guess not. Sad that McCain can’t even do well during RNC convention week.

Convention week? McCain has all but stopped the convention to concentrate on the hurricane. The media however did not stop campaigning and has been hitting Palin hard all weekend. While people tuned into the news to watch hurricane updates, the media was on nonstop attack mode while occassionally providing hurricane updates.

18 posted on 09/02/2008 6:47:06 AM PDT by Always Right (Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.)
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To: Federalist Society

If 51% of the American people really want Obama as their next president then I feel sorry for them. It’s going to be a cold, dark four years. They are embarking on a journey they will come to regret...


19 posted on 09/02/2008 6:47:32 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: KavMan

Gallup had it 49-43 yesterday, I expect it to get to 50 or 51 for Obama in today’s release.

In general, it does not look good. Hard to expect any sizable bump from the RNC now, and going into the debates with 4-5-6 point deficits seems a likely scenario.


20 posted on 09/02/2008 6:47:55 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: napscoordinator

The RNC is about to start rolling after Gustav turned into a dud, that should help.

Palin’s speech Wednesday is very very important, that will be her rollout to the American People, she needs to really nail her reform credentials and anti big spending policies.

Right now, it seems like McCain made a mistake in picking Palin by not “knowing” about the pregnancy, Palin must dispell that perception, the sooner, the better.


21 posted on 09/02/2008 6:48:06 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..Viva La Reagan revolcuccion!)
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To: MEGoody
Nah, I think Rasmussen just blew it.

So now all of the polls are wrong? I think shooting the messenger is silly. Every national poll has McCain down 6-8 right now. That seems right and should change once the RNC gets going.

22 posted on 09/02/2008 6:48:24 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: ubaldus
MSM has been running constant negative stories all week, how could the polls not follow suit??? I haven't heard but one positive on Palin and that was an interview on CNBC just prior to the selection. She showed herself to be a strong, positive, articulate (but very conservative) person and very much ready for the job.
23 posted on 09/02/2008 6:48:25 AM PDT by elpadre (nation)
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To: pissant

Wow, why the panicking? Lets wait till this thing really starts to go. We haven’t had a single debate yet.


24 posted on 09/02/2008 6:48:27 AM PDT by Terrence DoGood
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To: All

The ONLY poll that matters is Nov. 4th.



We have our work cutout for us but hey, we are conservatives and work is what we do best.
25 posted on 09/02/2008 6:48:54 AM PDT by j_k_l
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To: pissant

I like Fred and would have voted for him in the primary, but Fred’s executive experience has consisted of playing the head of the CIA in “the Hunt for Red October” and the director of Dulles Airport in “Die Hard 2”.


26 posted on 09/02/2008 6:49:13 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: ubaldus

Not surprised, the media attack on Palin is working, mostly because there hasn’t been an effective counter to it, but that will start this week.
I think next week this time we will get a better picture of what is going on nationally. Republicans never poll well on the weekend, and it was a holiday too.
Don’t panic.


27 posted on 09/02/2008 6:50:16 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: KavMan

Here is gallup’s analysis of its data:

The new polling shows that many of these disaffected Clinton voters have now returned to the loyal Democratic fold. The percentage of former Clinton voters who say they are certain to vote for Obama has now jumped to 65%. Although 12% of former Clinton voters persist in saying that they are going to vote for McCain, that’s down from 16%, and the percentage who are undecided has dropped in half.

Overall, support for Obama among this group has moved from 70% pre-convention to 81% post-convention.

To be sure, former Clinton supporters are still less enthusiastic than former Obama supporters in the post-convention poll. And, the fact that 12% still say they are going to vote for McCain is no doubt troubling to the Obama camp.


28 posted on 09/02/2008 6:50:46 AM PDT by Canedawg (Sarah Palin Rocks! McCain-Palin '08)
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To: Norman Bates

To put in baseball terms, McCain lost 2 of 3 at the end of a long road trip. No biggie. It happens.

On the other hand, he just called up an ace prospect from the minors (Sarah) and a long homestand is coming up (the RNC).

The push to the “World Series” starts today.


29 posted on 09/02/2008 6:50:49 AM PDT by Loyolas Mattman
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To: ubaldus
This was a Holiday weekend..I'm not putting much stock in it. I'll wait and see if we see the same thing hold up for the rest of the week.

Palin was a great pick. The MSM and 'Rat's despicable behavior will backfire on them. I can't wait until her speech.

Let's see what we're looking at this time next week before we start to panic.

30 posted on 09/02/2008 6:50:56 AM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: ubaldus

Obama had a lead like that over McCain last June.

I thought the DNC was supposed to help.


31 posted on 09/02/2008 6:51:08 AM PDT by syriacus (FIRST check out the Alaska state webpages. THEN tell me that governing Alaska is easy.)
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To: Always Right
John McCain suspended the convention to please the MSM/Drivebys and the Democrats. If he thought they would rise above politics, he was sadly mistaken. Politics like nature abhors a vacuum: advantage Obama.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

32 posted on 09/02/2008 6:51:30 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ubaldus

This is not that big a deal, IMHO. It’s still way TOO far out to say much. Don’t get too disheartened y’all. Besides, the Biden stuff has yet to come out. Plus, Sarah hasn’t made her speech yet. Let’s keep our collective chins up and shoulders to the wheel.


33 posted on 09/02/2008 6:51:39 AM PDT by austinaero
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To: ubaldus

I have a lot of friends who are moderate Republicans and they as a rule, don’t like the Palin nomination. They were hoping for Romney . . .And now the base is upset by the pregnancy news.


34 posted on 09/02/2008 6:51:47 AM PDT by pa mom
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To: ubaldus

weekend numbers before the hideous left came out on the attack. No worries, the media always do this.


35 posted on 09/02/2008 6:52:03 AM PDT by Porterville (Mac Daddy Daddy Mac!!!!! 2008!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: napscoordinator
Sad that McCain can’t even do well during RNC convention week. He better get his butt to work and begin convincing people he is ready for the job.

Not exactly a fair comment is it? We haven't exactly had much of a convention so far, have we? Wait until this time next week.

36 posted on 09/02/2008 6:52:06 AM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: Loyolas Mattman

Obama’s tax plan is so radical-28% tax on selling your home-this needs to be hammered into everybody’s mind.I’ve heard nothing about it. Half of america seems to be in a zombie state of mind still.


37 posted on 09/02/2008 6:52:08 AM PDT by lincolnton
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To: ubaldus

The McCain camp needs to fight back and fight back hard against the Palin attacks.

Step one, remind the public that Obama is the one running for President and has no experience whatsoever — except his work with terrorist Bill Ayers. START RUNNING ADS AGAIN!

Step two, get Palin out there to speak and to put a face and voice to all of this ravaging media. SHE needs to turn the tables before these stories stick.


38 posted on 09/02/2008 6:52:08 AM PDT by wilco200 (Typical White Person)
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To: ubaldus

It was Labor Day. All the left wingers were home watching the tube ................


39 posted on 09/02/2008 6:52:12 AM PDT by Red Badger (All that carbon in all that oil and coal was once in the atmosphere. We're just putting it back.....)
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To: ubaldus

Sarah got more votes in Wasilla than Biden got in Iowa.


40 posted on 09/02/2008 6:52:15 AM PDT by Tarpon (Three things matter when selecting a President character, character and character.)
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To: ubaldus

This is what happens when you play “democrat” because of a storm that hadn’t even hit anything yet. WHERE is McCain? I could understand this if it was AZ being threatened and I do understand how it might look to the media and the dums but I just think it was ridiculous to stop the convention. That was exactly what the other side wanted.


41 posted on 09/02/2008 6:52:21 AM PDT by Cricket24 (ULTRA PATRIOT!!)
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To: ubaldus

Obamas support is very soft, and the pollsters are oversampling the democrats.

Wait until Palin speaks at the convention. And wait for the debates. The Palin - Biden, will probably be the most watched vp debate ever.


42 posted on 09/02/2008 6:53:05 AM PDT by proudpapa (McCain - Palin'08)
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To: TitansAFC

>> So I take it you want Palin to step down so Romney can step in, eh?

If McCain wanted to gamble (a good idea, imo - since he is lost otherwise), it was either Lieberman or Palin. He rolled the dice with Palin, but he needed to get some breaks and he is not getting it. She will have to stay on the ticket, and we have to hope that she is indeed very, very good on the trail and in the debates.

Then there is still a chance to turn it around.


43 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:02 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: ubaldus
all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.

The pregnancy of Palin's daughter is gonna hurt McCain ticket..... simply because a teen pregnancy goes against everything the Republican Party stands for.

And I love Sarah Palin, and identify with her family life because it mirrors things which happened to my family.

But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

Not sure if that's true, but it's just one more thing that will ruin her reputation as a model citizen....

And after all, these Presidential campaigns are as much about atmospherics as they are about actual accomplishments.

Why the hell was Todd Palin drinking and driving, (if that is true).

By time someone has five kids, is pushing 50, and is a responsible adult, they know enough to not get behind the wheel if they've had too many.

I don't mind saying I'm disgusted.

44 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:13 AM PDT by Edit35 (.)
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To: pa mom

The base isn’t upset about the pregnancy


45 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:13 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: KavMan

Gallup doesn’t have new numbers up so Obama’s still +6. However, they have an article saying the same thing that Rasmussen is saying—Obama’s support has increased over the past few days because the PUMAs are picking him over McCain.

Both Rasmussen and the CNN poll had internals saying that while men loooved the Palin pick (imagine that!) women weren’t so enamored. The numbers would seem to confirm that, at least so far.

Remember, the Pubbie convention is just getting started. We won’t know for sure if Palin helps or hurts for about a week.


46 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:19 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet
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To: ubaldus

Not good. Not good at all.


47 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:31 AM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: HamiltonJay
Jeez, are you kidding me. It took 4 days for the DNC convention bounce to begin to show up... this is the tail end of that, combined with a holiday weekend polling. Relax folks.

Exactly...post coronation...post DNC convention...weekend...hurricane news...etc., etc.

You can't tell me with over $10 million (what's the latest count) piling in to the McCain campaign over the weekend that this is an accurate number.

Wait until the news gets out at how Bobby Jindal and the other GOP governors handled the hurricane. Plus Palin's speech tomorrow night will get major attention.

The McCain camp told us all along they expected a 15 pt. bounce.

It's not time to rearrange the deck chairs. The absolute worst thing we could do right now is panic.

48 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:40 AM PDT by Corin Stormhands (McCain-Palin '08)
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To: syriacus
Still not the 15 point bounce the Democrats needed. The bad news is Obama cracked 50%. If the GOP does not get a 15 point bounce and move into the lead after the convention, I think Palin may be seen as a desperation move rather than a brilliant masterstroke. Time will tell.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

49 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:45 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ubaldus

Everybody needs to avoid getting in a funk!

This was a holiday weekend and there was a lot of “noise” in the media. By the middle of next week we are going to have a very clear picture of the situation.

For now just smile and talk up Sarah Palin to your friends and neighbors...thats “TALK”...not argue.


50 posted on 09/02/2008 6:54:45 AM PDT by Artemis Webb (Sarah Palin: Babies, Guns, Jesus. HOT DAMN!)
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