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Rasmussen: Obama 51 - McCain 45 (from 49-46 yesterday)
Rasmussen ^ | 09/02/2008 | Rasmussen

Posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus

Obama is up by 6 in today's Rasmussen tracker, by 5 without leaners (48 - 43). It is obviuos that McCain had a very bad polling day yesterday, something like 42-53 daily sample or even worse.

Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; 2008rncconvention; 2008veep; biden; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; palin; palinattacks
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To: Perdogg

If you wanted him for CIC, then obviously you think he’d be a fine VP.


51 posted on 09/02/2008 6:55:01 AM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: ubaldus
Pretty much unchanged when you figure the MOE. Whereas I don't like these numbers, the campaign is really only just beginning. Palin was announced on Friday, and the weekend was one after another attacks on her. She hasn't really had the chance to respond and show who she is. How many here think that if the election were held today Obama would actually win by 6 points and would get over 50% of the vote? I really don't see that, but this is a difficult election to call.
52 posted on 09/02/2008 6:55:01 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: ubaldus

Kerry +15 at this time 4 years ago. 527s will be extremely effective, because 0bama hasnt been vetted yet.


53 posted on 09/02/2008 6:55:09 AM PDT by igoramus08
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To: ubaldus

I was expecting Obama to get a much bigger bounce out of his convention. If that were true, it wouldn’t be a surprise for McCain to be down some points right now anyway. So, don’t get too down. The worst part is the media will try to give it more traction than it really merits. We can’t get complacent now. I try to get to Politico regularly and pound on the McCain-haters using facts. It isn’t going to change their mind but I do notice after a couple give and take posts, the haters seem to disappear. They have to know the Bush way of not answering the slime will NOT continue. That said, I pick my battles. I refuse to get drawn into a debate over how the price of McCain’s shoes makes him an elitist. Actually, I laugh alot.


54 posted on 09/02/2008 6:55:13 AM PDT by austinaero
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To: Edit35
Todd recently had a DUI.

When did it happen?

55 posted on 09/02/2008 6:55:26 AM PDT by syriacus (FIRST check out the Alaska state webpages. THEN tell me that governing Alaska is easy.)
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To: Edit35

How is her husband’s DUI when he was in his 20’s going to affect anyone? Boggles my mind...lol


56 posted on 09/02/2008 6:55:36 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: KavMan

Is this the first time Obama is over 50. Im just sick to my stomach.


57 posted on 09/02/2008 6:55:47 AM PDT by GoCards
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To: Edit35
But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

Then the local paper is lying and you should submit a letter of rebuttal to the editor. He was 22 years old when he got the DWI.

58 posted on 09/02/2008 6:56:06 AM PDT by johniegrad
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To: Edit35
But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

If you consider in the 1980s when he was 22 "recent," the early 1990s must seem like yesterday... ;)
59 posted on 09/02/2008 6:56:16 AM PDT by TexasAg
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To: KavMan

Check out the pregnancy thread. There are more than a few throwing stones.


60 posted on 09/02/2008 6:56:20 AM PDT by pa mom
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To: goldstategop
The bad news is Obama cracked 50%.

How bad?

61 posted on 09/02/2008 6:56:32 AM PDT by syriacus (FIRST check out the Alaska state webpages. THEN tell me that governing Alaska is easy.)
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To: ubaldus

Dukakis, Gore and Kerry all had double-digit leads following their conventions. Obama can’t manage more than 5-6 points. And the GOP hasn’t even gotten started on their convention.

This is bad news for the rats not for the Republicans.


62 posted on 09/02/2008 6:56:40 AM PDT by scory
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To: Russ
It’s going to be a cold, dark four years.

Thirty years, more like.

His policies, with a cooperative Congress, will damage this country irrevocably in my lifetime. Our children will simply have to hunker down until the damage is corrected, if it ever is.

63 posted on 09/02/2008 6:57:13 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: goldstategop

Yep! McCain polled badly last night because yesterday was a full scale media war against Palin, and because a day which would have been devoted to the GOP convention was instead spent (in part) with Obama preening and claiming families are off limits (even as his supporters were engaging in smears).

This is like the Clarence Thomas situation. Palin needs to perform as well as Thomas to blunt these smears and make it backfire bigtime on the Rodentia.


64 posted on 09/02/2008 6:57:13 AM PDT by puroresu (Enjoy ASIAN CINEMA? See my Freeper page for recommendations (updated!).)
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To: igoramus08

Kerry was never higher than plus +2.8 on a weekly average in Rasmussen’s poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers


65 posted on 09/02/2008 6:57:15 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet
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To: pissant

yes, of course. But the VP slot has always been used to balance the ticket. That’s why Reagan ran with Richard Schweiker in 1976.


66 posted on 09/02/2008 6:57:16 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: ubaldus
Then there is still a chance to turn it around.

LOL. There are way too many nervous nellies out there.

Palin is a great pick. The next two months are going to be fun. Hold onto your hat....
67 posted on 09/02/2008 6:57:23 AM PDT by Antoninus (McCain/Palin -- The winning ticket!)
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To: austinaero

Every poll, even the good ones, have a bad sample every so often. It’s just the way it works. This could just be a bad sample. Wait a few days. We should never panic over one poll result. Nothing happened yesterday that would give Obama a big bump. Millions of people didn’t change their minds overnight, which is what would have had to have happened if this poll is accurate.


68 posted on 09/02/2008 6:57:48 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: syriacus; Edit35
When did it happen?

1986.

Hardly "recent."

69 posted on 09/02/2008 6:57:55 AM PDT by Corin Stormhands (McCain-Palin '08)
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To: Artemis Webb
We shall see. If the GOP can't turn it around during convention week, then its highly unlikely they win the election. Bush came out with the lead in 2004 from his convention and kept it all the way through to Election Day. John McCain has never had the lead except Sunday and it was statistically insignificant.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

70 posted on 09/02/2008 6:58:17 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ubaldus
Wow. Great analysis. Obama gets a 5-6% bump from his convention ( billed as the greatest story ever told by the media)compared to the 15% bump most 'Rats get following their convention, and you're ready to concede him a permanent lead. Geez...I'd hate to share a foxhole with you!

Have a little patience! Suck it up for chrissake! Our convention starts tonight. Let's see what kind of a bounce McCain can generate before you pronounce him DOA.

71 posted on 09/02/2008 6:58:21 AM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: pa mom

Wow the people from my church see it the exact opposite


72 posted on 09/02/2008 6:58:26 AM PDT by italianquaker (Great choice Mccain in Governor Sarah Palin)
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To: Edit35

I guess you didnt notice that the DUI was 22 years ago?


73 posted on 09/02/2008 6:59:32 AM PDT by italianquaker (Great choice Mccain in Governor Sarah Palin)
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To: syriacus
re: DUI.

22 years ago before they were married. He was 22 at the time.
74 posted on 09/02/2008 6:59:42 AM PDT by MarkeyD (Steele for VP! Palin isn't too bad either.)
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To: TitansAFC
So I take it you want Palin to step down so Romney can step in, eh?

Say what you want about Romney, but the man is squeaky clean.... having been vetted multiple times by the national media, and through scrutiny of the leftist nutjobs.

It's too early to tell if this pregnancy thing will hurt the McCain/Palin ticket, but I am not among those who think it will help. (despite claims by pundits that it will create sympathy)

All the good will and female support that would have come to the GOP because of Palin will, in my opinion, be negated by the daughter pregnancy thing.

Millions of moms across America are saying to themselves right now, "Gee, my daughter might think it OK to get pregnant at 17 if the daughter of the Vice President did.

I am an ardent conservative, and I LOVE Sarah Palin.... but I fear this could hurt.

Then again, I've been wrong about almost everything up until now, including Obama not picking Hillary, and McCain not picking Romney.

75 posted on 09/02/2008 7:00:01 AM PDT by Edit35 (.)
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To: ubaldus
Then there is still a chance to turn it around.

You're basing this statement on a single-digit poll taken on the weekend after the DNC Convention? Please.

Remember the narrative for an Obama victory - open up a single-digit lead before the convention, rouse up the idiots during the week of the DNC, and lead by mid double-digits (ala Kerry, Dukakis, etc.) the following week. That didn't happen, and I'd give odds that the Dem power brokers are scared crapless.

76 posted on 09/02/2008 7:00:20 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (Government intervention helped make the Great Depression great.)
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To: ubaldus

What would one expect? Number one, the convention hasn’t even started...but I’m surprised with all the negative 24/7 coverage of Palin that he only got a 3 point bounce out of it. I haven’t seen a feeding frenzy like went on yesterday since Thomas or Bork.

Here’s how I feel about the whole thing. I think McCain did the right thing in picking Palin. If he had picked Romney, we would have heard houses/rich white men/ etc from the press all day yesterday which also probably would have resulted in a drop in the polls. No matter who McCain chose, it was going to be negative. David Brooks said he should have chosen Bob Gates or Portman, that’s a laugh, what would the press have said about them.

So McCain did right...and remember everybody counted him out in the primaries too, but he perservered. I don’t agree with him on a lot of stuff, but I think he has grit and the determination to stay in there and fight. That’s the only thing that’ll win for him because Obama is the favorite whether we like it or not.


77 posted on 09/02/2008 7:00:27 AM PDT by Dawn531
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To: Edit35
But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

Which local paper?

I can only find reference to his DUI in 86.

78 posted on 09/02/2008 7:00:35 AM PDT by syriacus (FIRST check out the Alaska state webpages. THEN tell me that governing Alaska is easy.)
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To: Edit35

Relax. Todd Palin’s DUI was in 1986. By North Slope roughneck standards, a single 22-year-old DUI makes him Carrie Nation.


79 posted on 09/02/2008 7:00:46 AM PDT by Fabozz
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To: Edit35
Dear Edit35,

“I don't mind saying I'm disgusted.”

The only person with whom you should be disgusted is yourself.

“By time someone has five kids, is pushing 50, and is a responsible adult, they know enough to not get behind the wheel if they've had too many.”

Mr. Palin isn't quite pushing 50 - he's 43.

However, Mr. Palin didn't recently get a DUI.

Mr. Palin’s DUI came in 1986 when he was 22 years old.

Crawl back under your rock.


sitetest

80 posted on 09/02/2008 7:01:14 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: LadyNavyVet
Cold cause for comfort. He made the election close. It could go either way but we'll see how well the rest of the convention goes this week.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

81 posted on 09/02/2008 7:01:26 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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Hey, put it this way

Wasn’t McCain up 2 in Zogby and down one in CNN’s poll?

but CBS has it at +8 for Obama

Polls are all over the place ughhh....


82 posted on 09/02/2008 7:01:38 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: AmericaUnited; ubaldus; Russ; Alter Kaker

It’s a state-by-state fight. Pay attention to OH, CO, NH and NV.


83 posted on 09/02/2008 7:01:45 AM PDT by tomymind
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To: padre35
Right now, it seems like McCain made a mistake in picking Palin by not “knowing” about the pregnancy, Palin must dispell that perception, the sooner, the better.

You might have missed it, but Palin told the McCain camp that Bristol was pregnant. He knew this and picked her anyway. For me this is a non-issue. Do I like it? No, because it is a distraction, but I also remember that the American public has a short memory.
84 posted on 09/02/2008 7:01:53 AM PDT by Federalist Society
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To: Edit35
"But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI."

You call 1986, when he was 22 years old, "recently"?

85 posted on 09/02/2008 7:01:55 AM PDT by Redleg Duke ("All gave some, and some gave all!")
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To: Edit35

The DUI was 20 years ago before any of his kids were born.


86 posted on 09/02/2008 7:02:15 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some More)
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To: pa mom
And now the base is upset by the pregnancy news.

No it's not. This is a private matter and it's being handled perfectly as far as I'm concerned. I'm MUCH more interested in how Palin took on Murkowski and won and how she cleaned up the GOP in Alaska.

87 posted on 09/02/2008 7:02:26 AM PDT by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: Edit35
I don't mind saying I'm disgusted.

You're also ill-informed. That DUI happened in 1986.

Stop believing what the media is spoon-feeding you.

88 posted on 09/02/2008 7:03:01 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (Government intervention helped make the Great Depression great.)
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To: ubaldus

Just have to wonder who they poll. I also have to believe that they somehow cook the numbers to influence voters. These pollsters have been wrong before!


89 posted on 09/02/2008 7:03:09 AM PDT by Shery (in APO Land)
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To: cdga5for4

Look, I do think Obama has an advantage in this election. It’s his to lose but I do not at all think it’s a done deal. This is far from over.

That is my point. McCain should be working extra hard to win this thing.


90 posted on 09/02/2008 7:03:49 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: goldstategop
"We shall see. If the GOP can't turn it around during convention week, then its highly unlikely they win the election."

Your expertise and four quarters is worth one dollar.

91 posted on 09/02/2008 7:03:49 AM PDT by Artemis Webb (Sarah Palin: Babies, Guns, Jesus. HOT DAMN!)
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To: Edit35
Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

Learn to read beyond the headline. The DUI was 22 years ago.

92 posted on 09/02/2008 7:03:50 AM PDT by nwrep (Obama - the first Mohammedan to run for the White House)
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To: Edit35

DUI was around 1986 when he was about 21. You’re going to consider something that happened 22 years ago?


93 posted on 09/02/2008 7:04:02 AM PDT by sox_the_cat
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To: Edit35
But now I read in the local newspaper today (Tuesday) that Sarah's husband Todd recently had a DUI.

22 years ago is not recently.

94 posted on 09/02/2008 7:04:24 AM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: Corin Stormhands

Yep, this is a non starter, what is interesting is post convention the DNC bounce, was about 5-6 points, and that’s not a big enough lead for the least experienced candidate ever put forth by a major party.

The Palin selection has absolutely electrified the base, the reaction of leftist bloggers and MSM folks to the pregnancy thing is going to turn off a lot of folks as well.

By next tuesday we’ll know in the polling numbers where things stand. The RNC convention will be over, and will have had enough time to be showing up in the numbers.

There is no doubt to anyone breathing that Palin solidified the conservative base behind the ticket, and electrified it. The debates are yet to come, and we all know Fauxbama will do poorly in them, as he has done everytime he’s had to fly without a net and actually think on his feet.

51 to 46 after the corronation, and while polling over a holiday weekend, is not anything to get excited over, its not even a trend. Relax, by early next week we’ll know the lay of the land.


95 posted on 09/02/2008 7:04:40 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: ubaldus
..this is a chess match, not checkers

Davis and his crew had to anticipate all of this when SP was vetted.

The counterstrike is going to be hard and damaging. We will see a turnaround once the convention gets going IMO...

96 posted on 09/02/2008 7:05:02 AM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: Edit35

Would you survive your own scrutiny of a “model citizen”?


97 posted on 09/02/2008 7:05:41 AM PDT by listenhillary (Why are many feminists not feminine? I think they should give the word back.)
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To: TonyInOhio

>> You’re basing this statement on a single-digit poll taken on the weekend after the DNC Convention? Please.

I’m basing this statement on all available polls. This is not 1988 or even 2000, information saturation is much higher, news cycle is faster, and bumps are smaller.

In addition, Rasmussen methodology is favorable for McCain (since he fixes party ID weights). +6 in his poll is big, tells us that Obama’s Dem support rate is very close to McCain’s GOP support rate. If it stays that way, this is really bad news.


98 posted on 09/02/2008 7:06:11 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: KavMan
How is her husband’s DUI when he was in his 20’s going to affect anyone?

The libs are true hypocrites. Kennedy drove a woman off a bridge, Byrd was a klan member, Clinton was impeached, Edwards is a low life cheater, Clinton's press secretary Dee Dee Myers had a dui as did Congressman Kennedy, etc.

99 posted on 09/02/2008 7:06:12 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: HamiltonJay; All

Also look in how the candidates campaign.. They go by their internals..


100 posted on 09/02/2008 7:06:26 AM PDT by KevinDavis (If Obama can't handle a town hall debate, then he can't handle the job of being President.)
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