Skip to comments.Rasmussen: 9/6/2008: Obama 46% McCain 45%
Posted on 09/06/2008 6:37:41 AM PDT by CatOwner
Rasmussen is unchanged from yesterday, and now includes two days of Palin's speech and one day of McCain's speech. Either Wednesday was a really bad polling day for McCain, or we are overestimating the bounce, if any, that McCain-Palin got.
Scott and another pollster were on with Bill O. last night and said to not expect to see real convention results until Wednesday of next week.
I knew that coin was coming. You gotta be awake 24/7 with that pic ready to go for any poll post! ;)
On Fox last night, Rasmussen said you won’t see the accurate RNC “bounce” numbers until Monday at the earliest. He said Tuesday or Wednesday may be more accurate.
Overestimating the sincerity of the pollsters is more likely.
I’m not worried about it. Even we’re looking at the same number on Monday or Tuesday, its still just a 1-3% lead for Obama.
But lets not forget that we were all laughing about the non-bounce for the Dems this time a week ago. Then, early in the week, it started to show in the polls. I think it’ll be the same here. Give it a few more days.
It takes 3-5 days for a tracking poll to show movement trends, and up to TWO WEEKS for it to start showing in the State-By-State polling.
Thanks for the info on RAS. After the DEM Convention Obama’s bounce did not happen until about noon on Labor Day, the Monday after his speech.
Fact is Obama is only up 46 to 45, before McCain’s bounce.
>> I knew that coin was coming. You gotta be awake 24/7 with that pic ready to go for any poll post! ;)
It’s not a coin, it’s a “token”. Subtle but important point. ;-)
As for 24/7... Mrs. Tick has already warned that I’d better NOT spend the day surfing FR! I’m inclined to take her seriously!
Exactly well said.
We know they got a bounce its just that the pollsters do not want to show it.
For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated
The Obama bounce was late.
Interesting. The polls released next Thursday and Friday should tell us something.
I dont even bother keeping track of these polls. They mean nothing at this point.
You will know about Tuesday or Wednesday. Saw Rasmussen on Fox this morning and that is what he said.
The Monday morning results will include the entire weekend, and weekend polls tend to favor Dims. Wait for next Thursday morning’s results to be reported before jumping out the window.
I’m thinking on Thursday morning Ras will be showing a 2 to 4 point McCain lead, within the MoE.
Even so, it’s the Electoral College votes that matter, as we all know. National popular vote polls are unreliable.
In order for a poll to be accurate, they need to predict many factors. The two main factors are (1) voter preference and (2) turnout among the voter segments they query. No poll has a monopoly on the turnout methodology, but Rasmussen’s seems to be the most valid.
I think Obama’s ratings were underestimated all during the summer because of how fired up the democrats were and how demoralized the republicans were. But now the Republicans are fired up and prepared to turn out in large numbers. So it’s up to the pollsters to try to accurately capture those feelings.
My guess is that when all of the data shakes out, McCain is probably up by about 4 or 5 points.
I’d also like to make a prediction that the Republicans come close to, or succeed in, taking back the house. 60 days of campaigning against a do-nothing congress should have some positive results. Plus once congress comes back in session we have the fireworks regarding the oil issue starting to play out. And maybe even a government shutdown.
Break out the popcorn.
Monday the polls will reflect the convention results ,,,, remember the “SURGE” ,,,,,,, it’s working , just ask Obama .
Actually, the remainder of the Obama/DNC bounce was likely delayed because of the Palin announcement. The fact that Obama's lead with the leaners included gained a 1% means that Friday's poll number helped less than Tuesday's poll numbers.
I'll wait until early next week, but I really felt that McCain should have tied or taken a small lead by today.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Obama was ahead by six points in Rasmussen's poll just a couple of days ago and now it's a 1-2% lead.
Sarah is the great equalizer. McCain’s choice of her insures that he has at least a 50-50 shot of beating Obama...instead of losing for sure by picking a weaker candidate.
This election will probably be as close a 2004. It could go either way and will not be a rout for either side. The MSM will see to that.
I, however, would be very happy to eat my words on Nov 5.
Let’s compare this with the Obama bounce. He saw NOTHING until MONDAY, 4 days after his acceptance speech and a further increase on Tuesday which brought him to +8 over McCain in the Gallup and + 5 in the Rasmussen.. It was Wed when his numbers began to drop and if I have this right that also includes the Gallup Poll.
Rasmussen likely voters, Gallup Registered voters. Likely voters far more accurate then Registered only, factor in Bradley factor and it looks like McCain up by about 4-6 points. Of course it’s a snapshot and it’s a weekend poll which always seems to favor libs. Even Rove mentioned this on O’Reilly last Monday evening and said then he expected the Obama lead to begin fading by Tues or Wed of last week and he was dead on.
You make a good point. I think the debates will decide this thing.
Rasmussen said last night that the numbers that would reflex the convention would be on Monday, maybe even later, Obama’s bump did not come until a couple days after the convention.
Part of the bounce is the loss in the number that Obama had. He was up by 7 in some polls and 4 to 6 in others. Rasmussen said on O’Reilly last night it would be about Tuesday before we would see if the convention had a positive bounce.
Hehe. Pollsters are now going to have to reduce their polling numbers of likely to vote Republicans to about 10% instead of 26% to get the “results” they want to advertise.
The Obama convention bounce took a week to appear.
The Palin bounce will be the same.
It is not unchanged. The lead has gone from 4 points to 1 point since yesterday. The link has the daily numbers. He was behind 5 points on Wednesday. The poll is basically tied now. This is a good sign for McCain.
Is this because their "daily tracking polls" are actually running a week behind?
The DNC convention had no surprises, and Obama’s speech was unexceptional, and they still got a small bounce from the exposure.
OTOH, the Pubbie convention had a HUGE upside surprise from Palin, and frankly, a nice upside surprise from the McCain speech.
I expect a solid poll bounce in the upcoming days once the fence-sitters and unmotivated voters start migrating to the Right.
Don’t forget the built-in Bradley factor. These dolts had Obama easily defeating Clinton in NH (He lost by 4). They had him “closing in” on Clinton in Penn (He lost by 12). They had him “making a race of it” in Ohio (He lost by 11). Etc Etc.
Factor in about 5-7 points in McCain’s favor for every poll going forward.
Yep, I agree with you, the debates are what pickup the undecideds. Mc and Palin are going to clean house in them I do believe.
Why do people care so much about polls. Polls are done to come out with a specific outcome.
58 Percent Dissatisfied With Direction of Country;
57 Percent Say War With Iraq Has Not Made U.S. Safer
46 Percent Say Bush Closer to Their View on Gay Marriage
NEW YORK, July 31 2004 /PRNewswire/ — In a two-way trial heat between the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters, Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President Dick Cheney 52-44 percent, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, conducted Thursday and Friday. In a three-way race with the Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo ticket added, Kerry/Edwards receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney, 42 percent and Nader/Camejo, 3 percent, the poll shows.
In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote, the poll shows. Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin “bounce” in the three- way heat and a two-point margin “bounce” in the two-way heat.
Looks like they are tied to me. I’d bet large money that if they are tied going into the election that Obama loses by a significant margin on election day.
Going into the weekend after the DNC Obama had zero bounce. The polls reflecting a bounce did not show until the following Tuesday, when if my magic he was up 8 or 9 points.
We have multiple variables at work confounding the results right now. I think we need to wait for the numbers released next Thursday and Friday -- but the trend is our friend.
It may be telling that this morning Fox news had a segment on copying the Sarah Palin hairstyle and there was a news report of a run on Sarah Palin eyeglass frames.
These polls are loony! One day he is up by 9 points with a 50% share, and of course, the MSM puts it on every news program and it is the top story. Now it is a dead heat again a short week or two later.
Polls are worthless. We all know it will come down to Electoral votes in about 6-8 key states.
The real question is...
What are the poll numbers in states with lots of Hunters and Hockey Moms? States like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Colorado?
And, therefore, very suspicious.
If I understand the methodology, Rassmussen polls over 3 days. The Wednesday polling was almost all completed before Palin’s speech. The Thursday polling before McCain’s speech, which we now know had more viewers than Obama’s. So we have 2 days of Palin and one of McCain. It also usually takes a couple more days for it all to sink in. I’m sure Rasmussen is correct when he says wait till next week.
I hope a serious Republican Convention bounce shows up next week, but who knows. I wonder, though, if even a fairly honest pollster like Rasmussen will know how to handle a Palin Storm (if it is occurring, and I hope it is). Will he be underestimating the number of small-town voters who will now actually vote or the number of voters who will now call themselves Republicans? Maybe there is no Palin Storm, and maybe it will end quickly if it now exists; but if it does exist, pollsters may have a rather hard time figuring out how to massage their raw data to account for it. Jay Cost, where are you?
Bingo. This election is about four or five states---OH, FL, CO, NV, and perhaps VA and NH. McCain just caught a HUGE break here in OH last week when the "sick leave" initiative was taken off the ballot. That was dead-sure to bring out thousands more Dem voters who would, as a side issue, vote for Obama. But every one of these races is razor thin, and in most of these states, the latest poll has Obama ahead.
McCain can't and won't get above 300 EV in the most unlikely remote scenario, nor will Obama.
“Fact is Obama is only up 46 to 45, before McCains bounce.”
No. This poll has a 2% margin of error, to a 95% confidence level. Therefore “46 to 45” could really be anywhere between “44 to 47” to “48 to 43”. In other words, McCain could really be ahead now. There’s a 5% chance the spread could be even greater in either direction.
Including leaners, the spread could be anywhere from “47 to 48” to “51 to 44”. So, even including leaners, McCain could be ahead also. As above, there’s a 5% chance the spread is greater.
It’s important to remember that polls do not represent “exact” anything. They are most useful in establishing trends. These polls should be referred to as a “statistical tie”, and are VERY encouraging for McCain/Palin.
It was less “bradley,” than it was more “Operation Chaos” here in OH.