Skip to comments.Can Iran Successfully Deter A Military Attack?
Posted on 09/11/2008 9:24:09 PM PDT by Fennie
The public discussions of US/Israel attack scenarios and evidence from U.S. invasion of Iraq suggest that the initial stage of an attack on Iran will include hundreds and perhaps thousands of rockets and bombs which will not only target Iran's nuclear assets but also its missiles and military command. As a result Iran will only be able to launch only a portion of its rockets. For sake of argument lets assume that 50% of rockets will be successfully launched.
One must also keep in mind that both Israel and the U.S. will shot down at least 50% of Iran's rockets with their anti-missile defense system. Therefore for every 1000 Iranian missiles chances are that at most 250 of them will reach their targets.
Furthermore since Iran's military assets are limited it might decide to use its missiles slowly similar to the way Saddam was using it. For every one hundred American bombs or rockets Iraq was able to fire no more than five rockets. Therefore the U.S. and Israel might conclude that the damage from Iran's initial rocket retaliation will be limited...
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No, they can’t.
Yes, if Obama/Biden win in November. They can deter an attack merely by asking Obama nicely.
Probably not. When a country depends on something like religious ardor, rather than more mundane things like weapons, it risks serious embarrassment in wartime.
Not from a first rate power like the US or Israel. Do the Russians really want to be embarassed again when US built weapons humiliate another of their clients?
“rather than more mundane things like weapons”
It is our reliance on elevated things like science and free-markets which gives us the advantage (and the weapons).
The key question is can their nuclear and missile facilities be destroyed in a strike. Unknown.
This writer is trying to design a theoretical blueprint for Iranian Jihad. I suggest he might be expendable.
Another point of discussion - a conflict scenario with Iran does not necessarily include a land war.
Airborne annihilation of their nuclear power, military, and command components combined with a complete and total sea-borne blockade (stopping their cash flow) would bring Iran to her knees.
Oil prices would be impacted in the short term of course, but it is a situation which could be stabilized in short order.
... We let your ships move along and carry your oil out as soon as you sign this little piece of paper...
NO - Iran is a fraud. but it has little air-force or navy. It’s economy is in shambles. It run a trade deficit in Petroleum products! There is anecdotal evidence that 10% of Iran women 18-40 are working as prostitutes in the Gulf States to get-by. It has a dysfunctional, unpopular Government. We should have learned long ago that in the Mid-East that the more they talk in blood-curdling tones, the weaker they are.
Thats if you assume that all of their rockets are loaded onto launchers. I would bet they aren’t. And their AA defenses can be overwhelmed by shear numbers. They would be in for some night of chaos!
Can Iran Successfully Deter A Military AttackSure, just get rid of their dictator.
“Not from a first rate power like the US or Israel. Do the Russians really want to be embarassed again when US built weapons humiliate another of their clients?”
In airpower they are hopelessly outclassed even with their newly rebuilt F-14’s flying around.
Tank v tank they are outclassed.
The only thing they would have going for them are the massive human wave attacks, and their terror cells.
“And their AA defenses can be overwhelmed by shear numbers.”
IIRC, didn’t iran buy the same AA defense system that syria had defending that secret reactor they were trying to build?
I seem to recall that the “advanced” defense system syria bought didn’t do so great.
It would end up like the Bakaa valley turkeyshoot. A bunch of outdated Russian crap being pnwed by modern american made hardare.
They can, but it may require nuclear weapons. The US could probably accomplish this with conventional weapons.
***No, they cant.***
Easily defeated by JDAMs and Special Forces, respectively.
Turkeyshoots are great